7.8 magnitude earthquake strikes Nepal

[Adam Griffin]

According to a 1990s study I found an earthquake around the level of the 1934 quake could be expected to have a death toll of 18,000-20,000. So this is what we could expect, although I worry it will be far higher. I don't know how many buildings there are in Kathmandu but they estimated 53k would be destroyed while reports are saying half have been.

Meanwhile an advocacy group cites a study that claims:

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Sounds disturbingly close to what has happened.

They won't necessarily be similar in count. With magnitudes, there is a load of difference between even small variations in power. The amount of energy released in a 8.3 earthquake is 3.16 times that released in a 7.8. Even then, it also depends on where the epicenter was and how deep it occurred with respect to death counts.

[Adam Griffin]

In the wake of a massive earthquake, the aftershocks are often downplayed or "ignored", but it's worth mentioning that there have been 10 additional earthquakes today that have had magnitudes of 5.0 or greater, and at least that many with magnitudes of 4.5 to 5 - certainly not small ball, but perhaps unlikely to destroy a lot of what hasn't already been destroyed.