When will Labour in UK and Tories in Canada return to power?

[Blair]

A problem a lot of people in the Labour Party (and the wider liberal/left strands of british politics) had was thinking that 2019 was either a strange one-off result because of Brexit, a simple rejection of Corbynism (aka get rid of him & 2024 is in the bag for Labour) or most hilariously a sign of FPP being bad and needing to be fixed.

The current Johnson project is very much a rebranding of the Conservative Party which has given it a much longer shelf life than you'd expect for a party that has now been in Government for 11 years- this is a party that is actively reshaping how British politics is fought- largely through how public money is spent.

There's also a failure on all parts of the Labour Party to realise that the party's brand is either hated by large sections we need to win, or seen as irrelevant and impotent by those who did back us in 2019.

The lesson I took from 2017 result was the need for the party to both tackle its areas of weakness (on crime) but also give people a positive reason to vote for Labour.

[CumbrianLefty]

But the potential Tory weakness is that it turns out to be more a surface "rebranding" than a deeper change - as said recently, the instincts of Sunak especially are much more "traditional Thatcherite" in economic terms. There is still quite a lot an opposition that knows what it is about could get its teeth into - and with that we return to the weaknesses of Starmer's team (here I mean more his immediate entourage rather than the SC, though that is also very much a mixed bag) and the sometimes wholly unforced errors that they have made.

(though yes, a part of that may be thinking that simply "not being Corbyn" would be enough)

[LabourJersey]

I feel inclined to agree with SO19 about the general consensus in both countries is underestimating the chance of their governments losing at the next election.

If I had to guess right now, however, I think it's likely the Canadian Tories return to power earlier. I remember hearing that Trudeau is thinking of calling an early election at the end of this year/early next year. If that happens I think he'd definitely win that, but fatigue and the general swing-y nature of Canada means that the Tories would return to power in 2025/2026 with a new leader.

Labour seems to be in a really tough spot right now, but I think it is possible that people just get sick of Boris and the Tories in three years and the swing is enough for Labour to govern with the SNP's consent/agreement. However that's a very big hole to climb out of, and I think that would require a leader who's much more aggressive than Starmer is. Not to mention the standstill on the Scotland situation absolutely benefits the SNP, at least for now, and hurts Labour. I wouldn't be shocked either if Labour doesn't return to power until 2029 (though that could be earlier if the Tories call an earlier election in '22 or '23 instead of '24).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Tony Blair is the only Labour leader to have won a gen election since 1974. Labor will remain in Opposition until it returns to Blairism as that is the only position from which it can win.

Imagine thinking that the Democratic party needed to return to Buchanan in 1884 or Cleveland in 1912.

[jaymichaud]

Labour could regain power in 2028. 2024 is a long shot.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tony Blair is the only Labour leader to have won a gen election since 1974. Labor will remain in Opposition until it returns to Blairism as that is the only position from which it can win.

Imagine thinking that the Democratic party needed to return to Buchanan in 1884 or Cleveland in 1912.

Indeed, one can imagine how Blair would have - and indeed did - treat those in 1990s Labour who thought the key to electoral success was simply returning to stuff that had worked decades earlier in very different circumstances

[mileslunn]

I feel inclined to agree with SO19 about the general consensus in both countries is underestimating the chance of their governments losing at the next election.

If I had to guess right now, however, I think it's likely the Canadian Tories return to power earlier. I remember hearing that Trudeau is thinking of calling an early election at the end of this year/early next year. If that happens I think he'd definitely win that, but fatigue and the general swing-y nature of Canada means that the Tories would return to power in 2025/2026 with a new leader.

Labour seems to be in a really tough spot right now, but I think it is possible that people just get sick of Boris and the Tories in three years and the swing is enough for Labour to govern with the SNP's consent/agreement. However that's a very big hole to climb out of, and I think that would require a leader who's much more aggressive than Starmer is. Not to mention the standstill on the Scotland situation absolutely benefits the SNP, at least for now, and hurts Labour. I wouldn't be shocked either if Labour doesn't return to power until 2029 (though that could be earlier if the Tories call an earlier election in '22 or '23 instead of '24).

Tories in Canada definitely have an easier path to winning plurality of seats than Labour in UK does right now.  But only party that might prop them up in a minority is BQ whereas Labour just needs to push Tories below 310 seats in which case SNP and other smaller parties prop them up.  Unionist parties only ones likely to prop up Tories in a hung parliament.  True Sinn Fein doesn't take seats thus 323 not 326 is what they need for a working majority and boundary changes should help them.

However, longer term, Labour is at least strong with groups growing so next decade likely to be a bad one, but reason to be optimistic about 2030s.  By contrast in Canada, Tories have little to be optimistic about.  Even in the heartland of Alberta their grip is weakening and while some of that due to unpopularity of Jason Kenney thus should rebound a bit when he is not premier, I don't think Tories are likely to win in 2025.  I believe odds are they will be out of office until at least 2030s, maybe beyond.  While things can change, right now everything points to Tories eventually falling to third place and NDP being party to defeat Liberals.  Off course trends change, but just pointing out Labour is in a bad spot thus why I say lose next election, but win one after, but for Tories in Canada, I think they are at least 3 elections away from forming government quite possibly more.  Liberals being in power for 20 years has happened more than once so would not be unprecedented in Canada.

[Don Vito Corleone]

While things can change, right now everything points to Tories eventually falling to third place and NDP being party to defeat Liberals.

What? No they don't? What could possibly be giving you that idea?

[mileslunn]

While things can change, right now everything points to Tories eventually falling to third place and NDP being party to defeat Liberals.

What? No they don't? What could possibly be giving you that idea?

Millennials.  NDP is tied with Liberals amongst them while Tories distant third so won't happen in short term but as boomers die off then it will.  Common saying is people get more conservative as they age but that is more a myth than reality.  Yes people get somewhat more conservative but not by enough to offset this trend.  Sure parties can adjust but most millennials won't even consider Conservatives as an option so party would have to do a name change and look a lot different to rebound.

[LabourJersey]

While things can change, right now everything points to Tories eventually falling to third place and NDP being party to defeat Liberals.

What? No they don't? What could possibly be giving you that idea?

Millennials.  NDP is tied with Liberals amongst them while Tories distant third so won't happen in short term but as boomers die off then it will.  Common saying is people get more conservative as they age but that is more a myth than reality.  Yes people get somewhat more conservative but not by enough to offset this trend.  Sure parties can adjust but most millennials won't even consider Conservatives as an option so party would have to do a name change and look a lot different to rebound.

The youngest boomers are still around 60, and the earlier half Gen X is still fairly Conservative. We still have a long way to go before the boomers "die off."

Plus I think the Canadian Tories will eventually recalibrate electorally, and given the level of growth in Western Canada/the persistence of Western Alienation I don't see how they can end up as a 3rd party

[mileslunn]

While things can change, right now everything points to Tories eventually falling to third place and NDP being party to defeat Liberals.

What? No they don't? What could possibly be giving you that idea?

Millennials.  NDP is tied with Liberals amongst them while Tories distant third so won't happen in short term but as boomers die off then it will.  Common saying is people get more conservative as they age but that is more a myth than reality.  Yes people get somewhat more conservative but not by enough to offset this trend.  Sure parties can adjust but most millennials won't even consider Conservatives as an option so party would have to do a name change and look a lot different to rebound.

The youngest boomers are still around 60, and the earlier half Gen X is still fairly Conservative. We still have a long way to go before the boomers "die off."

Plus I think the Canadian Tories will eventually recalibrate electorally, and given the level of growth in Western Canada/the persistence of Western Alienation I don't see how they can end up as a 3rd party

In West, Tories taking a hit too and you may in future see urban/rural split.  Kenney is premier of Alberta and super unpopular, even more disliked than Trudeau in Alberta.  So if Notley wins in 2023 which I think is likely, I think even Alberta being Conservative stronghold may be coming to an end.  Saskatchewan may emerge as that, but it is only 3% of Canada's population.  While Tories falling to third seems far fetched and won't happen in near future, I wouldn't rule it out.  Off course possible a new centre-right option emerges, but seems unlikely.