Mexican General Election, June 2, 2024

[wnwnwn]

I recently checked PVEM web page and not only they now have actual ecology stuff there, but also things like "Justice with gender perspective" and so on.

I know it isn't sincere but I'm surprised they even bother with the pivot to a "woke progressive party". I thought that everybody accepted the fact that they were a glorified corruption machine that would sell their grandma for a spot in a ruling coalition.

I think they are doing this because their ally MORENA pays lip service to this sort of stuff.  I am not sure for how long since the MORENA vote is trending more rural and more likely more socially conservative.  MORENA and now PVEM saying all this stuff is an attempt to retain some of the legacy MORENA urban vote.

Mexico's polarizarion is now MORENA vs PAN and the PAN will always need social conservatives to have any possibility to win. Meanwhile, MORENA needs to get the youth vote to turnout for them. The PRD will continue losing support, and they will have to get those voters.

[jaichind]

Mexico's polarizarion is now MORENA vs PAN and the PAN will always need social conservatives to have any possibility to win. Meanwhile, MORENA needs to get the youth vote to turnout for them. The PRD will continue losing support, and they will have to get those voters.

And the old rural machine PRI vote has mostly shifted to MORENA.  If MORENA implodes they could go back to PRI but that just seems less and less likely.

[Flyersfan232]

I recently checked PVEM web page and not only they now have actual ecology stuff there, but also things like "Justice with gender perspective" and so on.

I know it isn't sincere but I'm surprised they even bother with the pivot to a "woke progressive party". I thought that everybody accepted the fact that they were a glorified corruption machine that would sell their grandma for a spot in a ruling coalition.

I think they are doing this because their ally MORENA pays lip service to this sort of stuff.  I am not sure for how long since the MORENA vote is trending more rural and more likely more socially conservative.  MORENA and now PVEM saying all this stuff is an attempt to retain some of the legacy MORENA urban vote.

Mexico's polarizarion is now MORENA vs PAN and the PAN will always need social conservatives to have any possibility to win. Meanwhile, MORENA needs to get the youth vote to turnout for them. The PRD will continue losing support, and they will have to get those voters.

and mc?

[jaichind]

MORENA is still well ahead in the vote for the head of CDMX.
With MORENA turning into the new PRI CDMX would be the place where you should see some dropoff in MORENA support.  So far that does not seem to be the case. 

I suppose the PAN will win at Benito Juarez and Miguel Hidalgo, but areas like Iztapalapa are AMLO's base.

Poll of polls for the head of each section in CDMX

[warandwar]

MORENA is still well ahead in the vote for the head of CDMX.
With MORENA turning into the new PRI CDMX would be the place where you should see some dropoff in MORENA support.  So far that does not seem to be the case. 

I suppose the PAN will win at Benito Juarez and Miguel Hidalgo, but areas like Iztapalapa are AMLO's base.

Poll of polls for the head of each section in CDMX

This is basically a map of class, right?

[jaichind]

Different pollsters have very different results on who won the first debate

[Flyersfan232]

any possibility of runoffs becoming a thing?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

any possibility of runoffs becoming a thing?

I’d seen it discussed around the 2018 election, but AMLO won’t institute it as long as Morena has a hold on power without them.

[jaichind]

https://oraculus.mx/presidente2024/

Oraculus poll of polls for the Prez race right now have it at

MORENA-PVEM-PT      59
PAN-PRI-PRD             34
MC                             7

Sheinbaum loses a bit of ground from a couple of months ago

[jaichind]

Bloomberg's poll tracker has it at

MORENA-PVEM-PT      60
PAN-PRI-PRD             32
MC                             8

[jaichind]

MORENA could face a flip in Morelos's governor race.  Back in 2018, MORENA backed PES to win the gubernatorial race.  This time MORENA is expected to win but it seems PRI-PAN-PRD is running a MORENA rebel and looks like has recently gained the lead in polls against the MORENA-PVEM-PT candidate.

[Mike88]

I have been watching this race from afar. It's basically a foregone conclusion, isn't it?