Fun fact: This election was one of the most electorally stable in history
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  Fun fact: This election was one of the most electorally stable in history
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Author Topic: Fun fact: This election was one of the most electorally stable in history  (Read 1128 times)
vileplume
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« on: December 02, 2020, 05:21:13 AM »

By that I mean no state has moved significantly differently from the national average.

Using the trend map on this site the maximum state trend appears to be a 6.73% Democratic trend in Vermont (which will probably in the end drop a bit lower than even this). No election since at least 1916 has ever had a maximum trend this low or even particularly close to this.

Despite the conversations about 'yuge' Trump gains with minorities and big Biden gains with well-off suburbanites the electoral position of the states relative to each other has never been more stable (or at least hasn't for a very, very long time) which I think is very interesting...
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2020, 05:25:29 AM »

Political volatility has been low since the 2000 realignment, post 2000 most elections have showed limited movement one way or the other, 2008 was the exception owing to the economic crisis.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2020, 05:45:36 AM »

Of course. When one of the candidates happens to be a very stable genius you shouldn't expect otherwise.
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2020, 07:06:40 AM »

The trend in Vermont was also partially due to Bernie Sanders write-ins cutting into Hillary’s margin. The state would still have trended D otherwise (all New England states did) but not quite as much without the Sanders factor.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2020, 11:25:31 AM »
« Edited: December 03, 2020, 09:34:57 AM by pbrower2a »

Furthermore, the electoral histories of the states are relevant over the last five Presidential elections. All but the 2008 election were close, and I am not going to show anything before 2000 because several states that used to be reliably D in their voting are quite the opposite now.

How states have voted from 2000 on:




all six for the Republican
5 R, 1 D
4 R, 2D  
3D/3R
4 D, 2 R
5 D, 1 R
all six for the Democrat


This map may hide some patterns of change, but overall state voting has been remarkably stable since 2000.
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Roblox
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2020, 12:18:08 PM »

Yeah that's one of the major things I noticed in this election. So many states swung a similar 1-4 points to the left, with few really breaking from that. In 2016 for example, you saw many states swinging high single digits or double digits toward Trump despite a national swing of just 1.8%, causing many huge R trends. This year? Mostly moderate gains across the board for Biden.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2020, 10:16:40 PM »

I'm surprised Colorado didn't have the largest trend.  Biden's margin was shockingly large.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: December 03, 2020, 09:47:43 AM »

Furthermore, the electoral histories of the states are relevant over the last five Presidential elections. All but the 2008 election were close, and I am not going to show anything before 2000 because several states that used to be reliably D in their voting are quite the opposite now.

How states have voted from 2000 on:




all six for the Republican
5 R, 1 D
4 R, 2D  
3D/3R
4 D, 2 R
5 D, 1 R
all six for the Democrat


This map may hide some patterns of change, but overall state voting has been remarkably stable since 2000.

If you want to see what the last big change was, then look at states whose last vote for a Democratic nominee was Clinton in the 1990's (pale green for once and dark green for the other times):



all six for the Republican
5 R, 1 D
4 R, 2D  
3D/3R
4 D, 2 R
5 D, 1 R
all six for the Democrat


but -- once for Bill Clinton in 1992 or 1996
for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996
without ever voting for a Democratic nominee since then.

Both Alaska and Texas, and even Montana, are far more likely to vote for the Democrat in 2024 than any state in deep green
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shua
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« Reply #8 on: December 03, 2020, 01:45:35 PM »

I'm surprised Colorado didn't have the largest trend.  Biden's margin was shockingly large.

looks to me like it was 1. CO,   2. DE,   3. VT 
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