If Labour loses the next UK election,

[Conservatopia]

Realistically to win the Tories need to turn out 85% of the people who voted for them last time. Seeing as these people actually voted for the Tories last time, there's a good chance they do so again.

Essentially what I'm saying is that for the Tories to win there doesn't need to be any dramatic event - just people gradually filtering back to their 2019 votes over the next 15 months.

To be clear, I don't think this will happen, but it's important to realise that a Tory victory in 2024 isn't such a remote prospect and could just happen naturally.

[Conservatopia]

Realistically to win the Tories need to turn out 85% of the people who voted for them last time. Seeing as these people actually voted for the Tories last time, there's a good chance they do so again.

Leaving aside the plausibility of this for now, does it take into account demographic changes since the last GE - in particular "natural wastage" amongst the Tories mainly more elderly supporters?

There's not enough of it to make a meaningful difference over one cycle.

The vast, overwhelming majority of the 2019 Tory vote is still alive and leans to the right. Doesn't mean the Tories will them all of course, but it does mean that it's Labour that has to climb the hill, while the Tories need to turn out their 2019 vote.

[Conservatopia]

The vast, overwhelming majority of the 2019 Tory vote is still alive and leans to the right. Doesn't mean the Tories will them all of course, but it does mean that it's Labour that has to climb the hill, while the Tories need to turn out their 2019 vote.

Sadly this is true. Apathetic voters are still apathetic after years of hearing Labour are Holocaust-lovers, and old voters will still vote their wallet rather than their morals.

Labour has a steep slope ahead of it to win back any of the '17-'19 Con voters, and right now past polling errors point to a hung parliament in 2024.

With respect, that's not what I said in either of my posts. Labour will likely win the election comfortably.