The media landscape is still pro-Tory and a leadership change could make the Tories seem fresher than they are. In fact, I predict a massive campaign from the broadsheet and tabloids alike about some sort of comeback being beneficial and how labour will lead the UK to a major capital flight scenario, with trans women eating newborn babies.
Starmer is also very dull.
People have much shorter memories than before.
Disagree on most of that tbh. It comes across as both a very "online" perspective (however much the bubble fulminates, bashing trans people is *not* going to influence most voters) and one made from outside the UK - which means you almost certainly underestimate the current extent of sheer fatigue and irritation with the Tory party both amongst the electorate and even the same elite that ensured their electoral triumph so unscrupulously, and on occasion dementedly, last time around.To be clear, I do not actually believe it will happen, I am answering OP's question as to what would be the introspection if the Tories pull of a shock win. And that would involve for example :
- inflation and shortages linked to Brexit no longer being headline news, some other issue instead
- loads of anti-Labour/anti-trans op eds about how better the devil you know than the devil you don't.
- Starmer being found out under scrutiny as being uninspiring and failing to get the vote out out of complacency or lack of ambition.
I do think voter fatigue with the tories will come out on top, I'm just saying in the unlikely outcome that the Tories win that's the kind of cocktail we'll see
I do think we can forget about a ferocious, united media campaign to re-elect the Tories next time - it won't be 1992 or 2015, never mind 2019. Quite a few feel residual guilt about being so mendacious then and thus enabling both Johnson and Truss to wreck the country, and on a more intellectual level they recognise the Tories are totally out of ideas and *need* a spell in opposition.
Let's analyse the op eds when the time comes. Right now its full of criticism for the Tories but its easy to do that while there is no election campaign yet.
And in some ways Starmer's undoubted dullness is an asset, not least in blunting scare campaigns.
Is it in modern political times? The post-modern campaign will be full of set pieces, bacon sandwich photo ops and debates rather than actually talking about public policy. If Starmer doesn't come across well in these, it could cost Labour regardless of them overturning the Tories.
Lastly, do people *really* have shorter memories than before? Would appreciate some evidence there - in particular I think the Fifty Days Of Misrule will haunt the Tories for some time to come.
Well we certainly live in a more accelerated society, and I think that acceleration means that voters too yearn for something fresh and new and the Tory Trotsky-redux permanent revolution of PM candidates helps them hug the spotlight and create a semblance of freshness to be able to last 13 years in power. I think people will tire of Starmer because he isn't an entertainer, and despite his best efforts and obviously being qualified for the job, he alone cannot raise the UK's living standards without world affairs playing a role in that either.
I'm still 95% sure Labour will win a crunching majority but I wouldn't overrate their prospects.
