Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Aurelius]

Zelensky alive and in Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1497450802851373056

This is great but Brooooooooo stop showing yourself in front of easily recognizable buildings!

You're a symbol at this point, you have a duty to stay alive.

I agree with you, but the bolded is, of course, exactly why he's doing it.

^

If Zelensky martyrs himself, after so publicly putting himself in the storm of battle, that will motivate Ukrainians to fight on even harder, I think.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497467189779218433

We ought to be airlifting supplies, both civilian and military, into Lviv at a rate to rival Berlin in 1948.

[Aurelius]

Even if Russia succeeds in sweeping across almost the whole country, I wonder if Ukraine could retreat behind the Carpathians and form a rump state based in Uzhhorod for the time being to regroup. Uzhhorod is only 2 miles from the Slovakian border, and Russia would be taking a massive risk by attacking it. All it would take is one stray missile to trigger Article 5. It would also be a mountainous, geographically secure redoubt in an otherwise flat and wide open country.

[super6646]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
Out of a force of 190,000, that’s 2-3% attrition in 48 hours. That’s a staggering amount if accurate.

So Ukrainians are inflicting casualties at a 6:1-8:1 rate if I am correct?

If you believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties, which I don't.

I do believe that Russia is taking much heavier than expected casualties based on what we've seen in places like Sumy and Chernihiv.

Which is understandable, but I'm just basing it off the reports we have rn.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
Out of a force of 190,000, that’s 2-3% attrition in 48 hours. That’s a staggering amount if accurate.

So Ukrainians are inflicting casualties at a 6:1-8:1 rate if I am correct?

If you believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties, which I don't.

I do believe that Russia is taking much heavier than expected casualties based on what we've seen in places like Sumy and Chernihiv.

Which is understandable, but I'm just basing it off the reports we have rn.

Taking into consideration the expected biases of sources helps in piercing the fog of war a tiny bit. I've been hearing that an invading force needs a 3:1 manpower advantage to overwhelm a defending force. Based on the fact that Russia is advancing, but facing unexpected difficulties, I'd guess that Ukraine is inflicting casualties at a 2.5:1 to 3.5:1 ratio.

[TheReckoning]

Russia is NOT the same threat as Nazi Germany or even the USSR, and people desperate for action need to stop pretending otherwise.

[Aurelius]

Russia is NOT the same threat as Nazi Germany or even the USSR, and people desperate for action need to stop pretending otherwise.

It's true that there is a certain type of bored, NEET westerner who is hoping for action for action's own sake simply in order to bring excitement to their otherwise dreary life.

However, it's unquestionable that Putin's playbook has shifted from his old approach of nibbling around the edges of his neighbors, to outright conquest. It's very likely that his 2 years of COVID isolation either made him insane, obsessed with his place in the history books, or both.

[super6646]

You have to give credit to the leader sticking about with the situation deteriorating so quickly.

I just don't see how Ukraine is going to hold out in the long run however. Reminds me of the German invasion of Poland in 1939; Russians have points of attack at 3 different fronts with overwhelming superiority in numbers. Only difference being that the Ukrainians are (if we are to believe all reports) inflicting more casualties on the Russians than vice versa, but Russia probably does not care how many losses they have to take.

The Poles did have a fall back plan to the SE corridor but it completely fell apart due to the Soviet invasion . A victory wasn't there but at the same time Poland wouldn't have fallen within 1 month. It's really important to realize how crippling Poland's defense was especially to the Luftwaffe which lost a large percentage of its aircraft. France's fall was embarrassing beyond any proportion but the Polish defense was workable considering the circumstances.

That is correct that the Soviet invasion sped up the inevitable, but Germany was inflicting casualties at something like a 10:1 ratio while having air supremacy, some semblance of modern armor (though the clout the Nazi panzer divisions get I find are overrated in the early parts of the war), and advantage in numbers. I don't think it is a stretch to say even without a Soviet invasion the timeline would have changed on scales of weeks.

As for France, while I do think hindsight makes the Germans look like geniuses, in1940 there were serious doubts significant armor formations could pierce the Ardennes and outflank the bulk of the French and British armies.

[Yoda]

Zelensky alive and in Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1497450802851373056

This is great but Brooooooooo stop showing yourself in front of easily recognizable buildings!

You're a symbol at this point, you have a duty to stay alive.

I agree with you, but the bolded is, of course, exactly why he's doing it.

^

If Zelensky martyrs himself, after so publicly putting himself in the storm of battle, that will motivate Ukrainians to fight on even harder, I think.

I believe it would be better for him to take more precautions though such as not giving any info on his whereabouts and staying alive as long as he can. Maybe even retreating to the western side of the country - while still staying in Ukraine - to inspire resistance where russians would have to stretch thin looking for him (maybe even give some based Polish soldiers a good excuse to shell russian forces). He'll likely be a martyr at some point - I dont see him leaving the country ever - but he should make that point as far into the future as possible.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497461221527891969

[Storr]

<tweet snip>
By some miracle, there were no casualties from this. But so much for Russia making an effort to avoid citizen casualties, "brother peoples" and all that.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497471317452509187?s=20&t=o5pnqlFRmMqhkV...

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497461221527891969

If Russian forces continue advancing east to Berdyansk, that opens them up for a four-pronged assault on Mariupol from Berdyansk, Donetsk, the Black Sea, and the Russian border. The southern front of this war is not looking good for Ukraine. If Russia can capture Mariupol to link up the occupied areas in the south with DNR and LNR, that's a very big setback for Ukraine.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497461221527891969

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1497470131135516673

[TheReckoning]

Russia is NOT the same threat as Nazi Germany or even the USSR, and people desperate for action need to stop pretending otherwise.

It's true that there is a certain type of bored, NEET westerner who is hoping for action for action's own sake simply in order to bring excitement to their otherwise dreary life.

However, it's unquestionable that Putin's playbook has shifted from his old approach of nibbling around the edges of his neighbors, to outright conquest. It's very likely that his 2 years of COVID isolation either made him insane, obsessed with his place in the history books, or both.

Conquest was status quo for millennia, so people need to stop acting like breaking a relatively recent norm is definitely the end of mankind, or even a major event in the grand scheme of things.

[super6646]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
Out of a force of 190,000, that’s 2-3% attrition in 48 hours. That’s a staggering amount if accurate.

So Ukrainians are inflicting casualties at a 6:1-8:1 rate if I am correct?

If you believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties, which I don't.

I do believe that Russia is taking much heavier than expected casualties based on what we've seen in places like Sumy and Chernihiv.

Which is understandable, but I'm just basing it off the reports we have rn.

Taking into consideration the expected biases of sources helps in piercing the fog of war a tiny bit. I've been hearing that an invading force needs a 3:1 manpower advantage to overwhelm a defending force. Based on the fact that Russia is advancing, but facing unexpected difficulties, I'd guess that Ukraine is inflicting casualties at a 2.5:1 to 3.5:1 ratio.

Yes this is generally the rule of thumb, but this can vary based on the terrain, weather, and level of technology.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I must say that the situation is terrible. But so far I'm fine. At the moment, I am taking my family out of my city to the village where I have a house. Details will be announced later, if possible

Hope you stay safe Andriy and I want to let you know that we are all praying for your safety

[ꙮ]

Russia is NOT the same threat as Nazi Germany or even the USSR, and people desperate for action need to stop pretending otherwise.

It's true that there is a certain type of bored, NEET westerner who is hoping for action for action's own sake simply in order to bring excitement to their otherwise dreary life.

However, it's unquestionable that Putin's playbook has shifted from his old approach of nibbling around the edges of his neighbors, to outright conquest. It's very likely that his 2 years of COVID isolation either made him insane, obsessed with his place in the history books, or both.

Conquest was status quo for millennia, so people need to stop acting like breaking a relatively recent norm is definitely the end of mankind, or even a major event in the grand scheme of things.

Give me a break. There are a lot of things that were the status quo for millennia that we don't do anymore, that would be ""major events"" if they resumed.

For millennia all over the world slavery was accepted and normal. Legal slavery was only fully stamped out in this past century. It is a recent norm. Per your logic, people shouldn't act like it were a big deal if the United States brought back slavery, and our doing so would not be a "major event".

For millennia in parts of the world, homosexuality was punishable by death. Per your idiotic logic, people would have no right to act like it was a big deal or a major event if the UK reimplemented the death penalty for homosexuality tomorrow.

For millennia there was no such thing as electoral democracy in any recognizable sense. Per your logic, it wouldn't be a big deal or a major event if Joe Biden crowned himself Emperor of the United States tomorrow.

For millennia nobody saw a problem with massacring the inhabitants of captured cities and raping and ransoming the survivors. It was the status quo. I suppose if Russia starts doing that too, you'll be the first one to let us know that it isn't exceptional historically and that it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Zelensky alive and in Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1497450802851373056

This is great but Brooooooooo stop showing yourself in front of easily recognizable buildings!

You're a symbol at this point, you have a duty to stay alive.

I agree with you, but the bolded is, of course, exactly why he's doing it.

^

If Zelensky martyrs himself, after so publicly putting himself in the storm of battle, that will motivate Ukrainians to fight on even harder, I think.

I think the only national leader to die in battle in a long time was the President of Chad last year. But ignoring the name of the country, this would be more chad.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497479675463049221
Kadyrov to deploy Chechen forces.

God help Ukraine and Ukrainians. I'm not a very religious man but I'm praying for them right now.

[TheReckoning]

Russia is NOT the same threat as Nazi Germany or even the USSR, and people desperate for action need to stop pretending otherwise.

It's true that there is a certain type of bored, NEET westerner who is hoping for action for action's own sake simply in order to bring excitement to their otherwise dreary life.

However, it's unquestionable that Putin's playbook has shifted from his old approach of nibbling around the edges of his neighbors, to outright conquest. It's very likely that his 2 years of COVID isolation either made him insane, obsessed with his place in the history books, or both.

Conquest was status quo for millennia, so people need to stop acting like breaking a relatively recent norm is definitely the end of mankind, or even a major event in the grand scheme of things.

Give me a break. There are a lot of things that were the status quo for millennia that we don't do anymore, that would be ""major events"" if they resumed.

For millennia all over the world slavery was accepted and normal. Legal slavery was only fully stamped out in this past century. It is a recent norm. Per your logic, people shouldn't act like it were a big deal if the United States brought back slavery, and our doing so would not be a "major event".

For millennia in parts of the world, homosexuality was punishable by death. Per your idiotic logic, people would have no right to act like it was a big deal or a major event if the UK reimplemented the death penalty for homosexuality tomorrow.

For millennia there was no such thing as electoral democracy in any recognizable sense. Per your logic, it wouldn't be a big deal or a major event if Joe Biden crowned himself Emperor of the United States tomorrow.

For millennia nobody saw a problem with massacring the inhabitants of captured cities and raping and ransoming the survivors. It was the status quo. I suppose if Russia starts doing that too, you'll be the first one to let us know that it isn't exceptional historically and that it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.

Russia invading Ukraine definitely is a “big deal.” Just no where near as consequential as WW2 or the Cold War, and people need to stop pretending otherwise and blowing things out of proportion.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Russia is NOT the same threat as Nazi Germany or even the USSR, and people desperate for action need to stop pretending otherwise.

It's true that there is a certain type of bored, NEET westerner who is hoping for action for action's own sake simply in order to bring excitement to their otherwise dreary life.

However, it's unquestionable that Putin's playbook has shifted from his old approach of nibbling around the edges of his neighbors, to outright conquest. It's very likely that his 2 years of COVID isolation either made him insane, obsessed with his place in the history books, or both.

Conquest was status quo for millennia, so people need to stop acting like breaking a relatively recent norm is definitely the end of mankind, or even a major event in the grand scheme of things.

Nomadic tribes raiding China was normal for millennia. Does that mean the Mongols should pillage Beijing today?

[ꙮ]

Russia is NOT the same threat as Nazi Germany or even the USSR, and people desperate for action need to stop pretending otherwise.

It's true that there is a certain type of bored, NEET westerner who is hoping for action for action's own sake simply in order to bring excitement to their otherwise dreary life.

However, it's unquestionable that Putin's playbook has shifted from his old approach of nibbling around the edges of his neighbors, to outright conquest. It's very likely that his 2 years of COVID isolation either made him insane, obsessed with his place in the history books, or both.

Conquest was status quo for millennia, so people need to stop acting like breaking a relatively recent norm is definitely the end of mankind, or even a major event in the grand scheme of things.

Give me a break. There are a lot of things that were the status quo for millennia that we don't do anymore, that would be ""major events"" if they resumed.

For millennia all over the world slavery was accepted and normal. Legal slavery was only fully stamped out in this past century. It is a recent norm. Per your logic, people shouldn't act like it were a big deal if the United States brought back slavery, and our doing so would not be a "major event".

For millennia in parts of the world, homosexuality was punishable by death. Per your idiotic logic, people would have no right to act like it was a big deal or a major event if the UK reimplemented the death penalty for homosexuality tomorrow.

For millennia there was no such thing as electoral democracy in any recognizable sense. Per your logic, it wouldn't be a big deal or a major event if Joe Biden crowned himself Emperor of the United States tomorrow.

For millennia nobody saw a problem with massacring the inhabitants of captured cities and raping and ransoming the survivors. It was the status quo. I suppose if Russia starts doing that too, you'll be the first one to let us know that it isn't exceptional historically and that it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.

Russia invading Ukraine definitely is a “big deal.” Just no where near as consequential as WW2 or the Cold War, and people need to stop pretending otherwise and blowing things out of proportion.

Cool, not what you said though.

Also nobody is saying that this is as big a deal as WWII. If that was the point you were trying to make, you were arguing against no-one.

[TheReckoning]

Russia is NOT the same threat as Nazi Germany or even the USSR, and people desperate for action need to stop pretending otherwise.

It's true that there is a certain type of bored, NEET westerner who is hoping for action for action's own sake simply in order to bring excitement to their otherwise dreary life.

However, it's unquestionable that Putin's playbook has shifted from his old approach of nibbling around the edges of his neighbors, to outright conquest. It's very likely that his 2 years of COVID isolation either made him insane, obsessed with his place in the history books, or both.

Conquest was status quo for millennia, so people need to stop acting like breaking a relatively recent norm is definitely the end of mankind, or even a major event in the grand scheme of things.

Give me a break. There are a lot of things that were the status quo for millennia that we don't do anymore, that would be ""major events"" if they resumed.

For millennia all over the world slavery was accepted and normal. Legal slavery was only fully stamped out in this past century. It is a recent norm. Per your logic, people shouldn't act like it were a big deal if the United States brought back slavery, and our doing so would not be a "major event".

For millennia in parts of the world, homosexuality was punishable by death. Per your idiotic logic, people would have no right to act like it was a big deal or a major event if the UK reimplemented the death penalty for homosexuality tomorrow.

For millennia there was no such thing as electoral democracy in any recognizable sense. Per your logic, it wouldn't be a big deal or a major event if Joe Biden crowned himself Emperor of the United States tomorrow.

For millennia nobody saw a problem with massacring the inhabitants of captured cities and raping and ransoming the survivors. It was the status quo. I suppose if Russia starts doing that too, you'll be the first one to let us know that it isn't exceptional historically and that it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.

Russia invading Ukraine definitely is a “big deal.” Just no where near as consequential as WW2 or the Cold War, and people need to stop pretending otherwise and blowing things out of proportion.

Cool, not what you said though.

Also nobody is saying that this is as big a deal as WWII. If that was the point you were trying to make, you were arguing against no-one.

Forumlurker et al. are claiming this could be not just the start of WW3, but literally a cataclysmic tier event. WW3 is trending on many social media sites, and people are starting to believe the hype.

[Hnv1]

Not sure how credible the map is. But it doesn't look like the Russian army is performing all that well