Ontario General Election Prediction thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Works for me. If you put in 27.6 / 36.5 / 28.45 / 5.0 you get those totals.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think Woodbridge is as Liberal as you think.

Indeed. Italians love Doug Ford.

[Hatman 🍁]

Blue Liberal is probably a good description for Woodbridge. 

But yeah I don't find the explanations for why it'll be the one Liberal holdout in 905 (Italians! Del Duca! Seat projector!) very convincing. 

Italians in general tend to be 'blue Liberals'

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, I'll play

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- PC
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC

905 Belt
Ajax- PC
Oshawa- NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- PC
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton East- NDP
Brampton North- NDP
Mississauga-Lakeshore- PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre- PC
Scarborough Agincourt- PC
Scarborough Southwest- NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- PC
Willowdale- PC
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto Centre - NDP
University-Rosedale- NDP
Etobicoke North- PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore- PC
Etobicoke Centre - PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St. Catharines - NDP
Brantford-Brant- NDP
Guelph- Green
Waterloo- NDP
London North Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- PC

Any other ridings that you predict will change hands that I have not listed:
Spadina-Fort York -> NDP
Don Valley North -> PC
Scarborough-Guildwood -> PC
Scarborough-Rouge Park -> PC
All of York Region -> PC
All of Mississauga -> PC
Brampton Centre -> NDP
Brampton West -> PC
Brampton South -> PC
All of Halton -> PC
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas -> NDP
Durham -> NDP
Both Barrie ridings: --> PC
Orleans -> PC
Ottawa Centre -> NDP
Northumberland-Peterborough South -> PC
Cambridge -> PC
Kitchener Centre -> NDP
Kenora-Rainy River -> PC

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, I'll play

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
......
Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St. Catharines.......

Abuja or Lagos?

I fixed a lot of the OP's typos when I copied and pasted, but I missed that one!

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, I'll play

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- PC
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC

905 Belt
Ajax- PC
Oshawa- NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- PC
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton East- NDP
Brampton North- NDP
Mississauga-Lakeshore- PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre- PC
Scarborough Agincourt- PC
Scarborough Southwest- NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- PC
Willowdale- PC
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto Centre - NDP
University-Rosedale- NDP
Etobicoke North- PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore- PC
Etobicoke Centre - PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St. Catharines - NDP
Brantford-Brant- NDP
Guelph- Green
Waterloo- NDP
London North Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- PC

Any other ridings that you predict will change hands that I have not listed:
Spadina-Fort York -> NDP
Don Valley North -> PC
Scarborough-Guildwood -> PC
Scarborough-Rouge Park -> PC
All of York Region -> PC
All of Mississauga -> PC
Brampton Centre -> NDP
Brampton West -> PC
Brampton South -> PC
All of Halton -> PC
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas -> NDP
Durham -> NDP
Both Barrie ridings: --> PC
Orleans -> PC
Ottawa Centre -> NDP
Northumberland-Peterborough South -> PC
Cambridge -> PC
Kitchener Centre -> NDP
Kenora-Rainy River -> PC

Unless I'm adding wrongly, this is a PC majority. Are you thinking that the popular vote will not actually be close to tied, or do you think the current distribution gets this result even with both PC's and NDP around 36-37?

I think at this stage the PCs will win by a few points, and thus will get a majority. If the PV is tied, then I still think the PCs have a structural advantage on paper, but not necessarily.  From what I've seen in or regional polling over the last few days, the NDP isn't doing as well in the areas it needs to in order to win a majority, even if the topline suggests a tie.

[Hatman 🍁]

What does "running up the margins" even mean for the NDP? I doubt they will be getting over 70% in many seats (if at all.. maybe Nickel Belt?), and very few over 60% margins. Again, in 'NDP strongholds' most who would potentially vote NDP already did so last time. NDP gains will be made mostly in non-NDP seats.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Pretty sound, DC. I disagree with Willowdale and the Soo, and obviously Guelph. The Liberals will likely finish fourth there (MS has them at 12%!) Most Liberals will just vote Green.

[Hatman 🍁]

Beaches-East York - PC

wut?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, here is the official EKOS (aka mine) seat prediction: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, here is the official EKOS (aka mine) seat prediction: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/

I agree with most of the individual seat predictions...the outer part of Toronto is a bit of a conundrum...polling suggests that the NDP totally dominates inner Toronto and is competitive with the PCs in outer Toronto (i.e. Scarborough, North York and Etobicoke). So it seems odd that the NDP would end up with only 2 seats in outer Toronto...of course some of the other Scarborough seats could be a bit of a crapshoot, but looking at the map of where Ford did badly when he ran for mayor, there are two seats that strike me as possible sleepers for the NDP:

Etobicoke-Lakeshore - the riding poll by Mainstreet (much as i am sceptical of their riding polling) suggested the NDP was very close toi the PCs here and this area actually has an NDP history pre-1995

Willowdale - again, Ford did badly here and this area has changed dramatically and is now largely high rise apartment buildings and is very multi-cultural. This is North York City Centre and is increasingly becoming almost a northern version of Spadina-Fort York 

I know... I also think the NDP has a good shot at Scarborough Centre. I agree Willowdale and Lakeshore are possibilities. I definitely went with the 'safe' picks there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, here is the official EKOS (aka mine) seat prediction: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/

Uhhh... There are two Thunder Bay-Atikoan's on the list, is that intended?

Fixed now. It should be Sudbury.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman, I really like the "footnotes" and thought put into the ridings that goes beyond "the data says so."

Thanks. These are as qualitative as much as they quantitative.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like Mainstreet doesn't even believe their riding polls. They have OWN and St. Paul's going NDP, which contradicts their riding polls:

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1004789791047614464

I definitely think their calls in Ottawa West-Nepean and Parry Sound-Muskoka are wrong. The rest are plausible.

[Hatman 🍁]

To be fair, I contradicted our riding poll that had the NDP ahead in Whitby, so...

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I was well off

Yup

Y'all need to trust me more. I've been doing these prediction things since high school.