Civil War in Syria

[palandio]

The region of al-Bab (which is still ISIS-hold) is seeing an escalation between Turkey and its proxies on the one side vs. YPG/SDF and Assad loyalists on the other side (and everyone vs. ISIS of course). There seems to be a clear reapproachment between the YPG and the loyalists after the souring of relations in the summer/autumn (al-Hasakah clashes, Assad reluctantly allowing Turkey into Syria in the first place). This is of course dangerous because it could turn into a NATO member (Turkey) vs. Syria (+Russia) conflict. It seems that the Russians have not yet taken position in public, but I would be surprised if this were an Assad solo.

[palandio]

First SAA advancing units have reached the besieged regime-hold part of Deir ez-Zor. Technically the siege might be considered broken, although it will take some time until the SAA manages to fully secure its supply lines.

Edit: Premature, but will probably be true tomorrow, more or less.

[palandio]

This is not over yet. ISIS will counterattack very soon. And large parts of the city are still held by ISIS, the battle for them will be brutal.

[palandio]

Apparently a counter-offensive by the Turkish-backed rebels has lead to them regaining the city of Saraqeb and cutting off the M5 highway (Damascus-Hama-Aleppo).

Meanwhile the army offensive in the southern part of the province is advancing.

It will be interesting to see if the counter-offensive will remain an intermezzo that costs the rebels more than the army or if increasing Turkish support (artillery, manpads,...) has shifted the balance towards the rebels.