Applying the cube root rule for state houses

[Former President tack50]

For fun, here is Wyoming, which was a massive pain as every district is literally only a handful of precincts. Especially painful were the major population centres as the precincts often have detached parts. In fact there are some non-contiguous districts here but I do not think it is possible to do 100% contiguous districts here



https://davesredistricting.org/join/15db0fce-2b28-4051-baf8-fcd448617df7

Anyways, using 2016 numbers the map has:

7 Safe Democratic districts (the 4 Teton County districts, 1 Native American district in Fremont County and 2 districts in downtown Laramie)
3 competitive districts (the remaining 2 districts in Laramie and 1 district in downtown Cheyenne)
73 Safe Republican districts (everything else)

District 75 might be an accidental Native American pack (it's 85% Native), so maybe 2 Native American districts are needed there instead of 1 (I did not look at partisan or racial data)

[Former President tack50]

Keeping with the trend of doing the painful small states so you don't have to, here is Vermont. Which can be summed up by paraphrasing Huey Long: "Every precinct a district". This is actually again not an exaggeration, especially in the Burlington area.

At least unlike with Wyoming, Vermont actually has some sensible precinct boundaries, so no non-contiguous districts this time.

However DRA seems to have a bug where some districts disappear when you disable the precinct boundaries so this map will be harder to watch

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ec69911d-e73e-4e21-a24b-5030530d2f9b



Again using 2016 presidential numbers, there are:

3 Safe Republican districts (All bordering Canada: 1 in Northern Franklin County, 1 in Northeast Orleans County and the Essex County district)
8 Competitive Trump districts
11 Competitive Clinton districts
64 Safe Democratic districts

The tipping point districts would be District 13 and District 73.

District 73 was 63-37 Clinton and is located on the town of Windsor in Windsor County.
District 13 was 64-38 Clinton and is located just west of Colchester, and seems to be some sort of suburban/exurban Burlington district.

Vermont was 65-35 in the 2 party vote so the tipping points seem to be a couple of points to the right of the state; though obviously still safe D.

[Former President tack50]

And here is North Dakota. Note that I screwed up population distributions (which is easy to do) so there is 1 rural district that has double the pouplation of all the others, but beyond that it should be fairly accurate. It is very hard to keep poulations balanced when a handful of precincts already put you over the line.

Also there were still a couple non-contiguous districts but nothing like what Wyoming had



(click on image to enlarge)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3265ca1d-9b49-452e-84c9-423c3dc548cc

This map has (with 2016 presidential numbers):

3 Safe Democratic districts (2 in downtown Fargo and 1 91% Native American district in Rolette County)
4 Competitive Clinton districts (All in Fargo and its suburbs)
7 competitive Trump districts (4 around Fargo, 2 in downtown Grand Forks and a 55% Native American district in Mountrail County)
74 Safe Republican districts (the rest)

Tipping point districts are district 71 and district 37.

District 71 was 70-30 Trump and is located in Minot
District 37 was 71-29 Trump and comprises the northern rural areas of Grand Forks county and takes in Nelson County as well.

ND was 70-30 Trump so almost no difference between the tipping point and the state at large.

[Former President tack50]

This map has (with 2016 presidential numbers):

3 Safe Democratic districts (2 in downtown Fargo and 1 91% Native American district in Rolette County)
4 Competitive Clinton districts (All in Fargo and its suburbs)
7 competitive Trump districts (4 around Fargo, 2 in downtown Grand Forks and a 55% Native American district in Mountrail County)
74 Safe Republican districts (the rest)

Tipping point districts are district 71 and district 37.

District 71 was 70-30 Trump and is located in Minot
District 37 was 71-29 Trump and comprises the northern rural areas of Grand Forks county and takes in Nelson County as well.

ND was 70-30 Trump so almost no difference between the tipping point and the state at large.

What?? It was 63-27 lol

Is DRA randomly assigning all Johnson voters to Trump?

DRA seems to be using 2 party numbers for the spreadsheet it generates and that is what I was copying.

63+27=90

63/90= 0.7 = 70%

[Former President tack50]

I don't know if I will do all states (probably not), but for now here is Alaska (no map pic this time)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d35c75e4-5d36-4922-b7bb-630993682149

A much more competitive state this time, using 2016 presidential numbers:

20 Safe Democratic districts
7 competitive Clinton districts
16 competitive Trump districts
46 Safe Republican districts

The tipping point district is district 31 (somewhere in the Anchorage suburbs), which went 49-39 for Trump. That is actually 5 points to the left of how Alaska at large voted, though it still seems to me that on paper the legislature is safe R (albeit only barely)

Clinton districts:
10 in Metro Anchorage
1 in Metro Fairbanks-North Pole
10 in rural Northern Alaska
6 in the Alaska panhandle

[Former President tack50]

Here is South Dakota. Click on the picture to enlarge



https://davesredistricting.org/join/7db6a7f1-4403-4965-aaeb-06fe35615908

In terms of partisanship using 2016 presidential numbers:

6 Safe Democratic districts
2 competitive Clinton districts
7 competitive Trump districts
78 Safe Republican districts

The 6 Safe Democratic districts are located:
1 covers the town of Vermillion
3 in downtown Sioux Falls
2 rural Native American districts

The further 2 competitive Clinton districts are located also in Sioux Falls

The median district is district 37, covering rural Brookings County and eastern Kingsbury County. This district voted 61-32 Trump, almost perfectly in line with how SD At large voted.

[Former President tack50]

Here is Delaware, the final of the small states.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/70f9530d-965e-4403-b4d1-116b7e9e8d50

Using 2016 presidential numbers you get:

56 Safe Democratic districts
7 competitive Clinton districts
6 competitive Trump districts
27 Safe Republican districts

The median district is district 15 or District 27.

Both are located in the suburbs of Wilmington and both went to Clinton by around 54-40. That is slightly more than what Delaware at large went.

[Former President tack50]

Here is Montana, the first of the triple digit states



(click to enlarge)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4db97353-6b28-482f-b092-9c1822270e22

This map has, per 2016 President:

21 Safe Democratic districts
5 Competitive Clinton districts
4 competitive Trump districts
70 Safe Republican districts

Of course this is Montana so I imagine that many of the "Safe Republican" districts would not be that safe.

As I often do for the minority party, here are the location of the 26 Clinton districts:

8 in Missoula
6 in Bozeman
3 in Butte
3 in Helena
2 in Billings
1 in Whitefish
1 Native American district in Glacier County
1 Native American district in Big Horn County
1 Deer Lodge County district

The median districts are district 62 and district 52.

District 62 is a northwestern suburb of Bozeman and went 59-33 Trump.
District 52 is a western suburb of Great Falls and went 60-34 Trump.

These are both roughly 6 points to the right of Montana at large, so winning a majority would be very tough for Dems, even if MT is very elastic downballot

For the record, in 2018 Tester wins 47 districts and Maryland Matt wins 53.