Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[King Lear]

Latest Rassmusen survey:
Approval: 49%
Disapproval: 50%

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Feb 22-28, 31777 adults including 28452 RV

Among adults:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

[LimoLiberal]

Zogby; last poll was January 12-15

Approve: 48 (+2)
Disapprove: 49 (-2)

Trump improving in vast array of polls, with his 538 average jumping three points.

[Person Man]

Zogby; last poll was January 12-15

Approve: 48 (+2)
Disapprove: 49 (-2)

Trump improving in vast array of polls, with his 538 average jumping three points.

As millions of Americans trade in their Hyundais for Altimas, their Motel 6's for Holiday Inns, their 2 bedroom flats for 2000 square foot ranch homes, their hamburgers and ramen for steak and salad bars, their coach seats for business seats, their Miller Lite for Moet, their bowling balls for golf clubs, and their union dues for country club dues!

[Beet]

MSNBC has enjoyed greater profits during 2017 after following the CNN strategy of "Trump-Hating".

MSNBC increased it's mentions of the word "Trump" in over 50% of it's stories in the 24 news cycle to positive effect which almost doubled it's prime time advertising rates.

CNN is making a fortune:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-cnn-fox-news-advertising-revenues-fake-figures-media-tweets-us-president-failing-new-a8080856.html

But FoxNews has being steadily on the decline despite Trump's love.

No wonder they gave him billions in free coverage while savaging Hillary over "muh emails."

"It may not be good for America, but it's damn good for CBS." - Les Moonves

[BudgieForce]

I find it funny that Trump's numbers are being buoyed by Zogby, Rasmussen and Morning Consult.

[Gass3268]

I find it funny that Trump's numbers are being buoyed by Zogby, Rasmussen and Morning Consult.

Gallup going weekly has really messed with countering Rasmussen.

[BudgieForce]

I find it funny that Trump's numbers are being buoyed by Zogby, Rasmussen and Morning Consult.

Gallup going weekly has really messed with countering Rasmussen.

I don't want to be that guy but I'm pretty sure the people at Rasmussen are well aware of that.

[KingSweden]

Zogby; last poll was January 12-15

Approve: 48 (+2)
Disapprove: 49 (-2)

Trump improving in vast array of polls, with his 538 average jumping three points.

Are you seriously posting Zogby unironically

[LimoLiberal]

Trump viewed very favorably in Texas: http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/02/28/poll-texans-support-trump-wall-daca/

Favorable: 55
Unfavorable: 41

Trump only won Texas by 9 points in 2016.

[Dr. Arch]

Welcome to super ignore.

[BudgieForce]

Should be noted Dixie Strategies isnt a very good pollster.

[LimoLiberal]

Welcome to super ignore.

So posting a poll without commentary is now super ignore?

[LimoLiberal]

I know it's a Trump SuperPAC polling outfit, but we can still use the trendline.

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/969345567796203520

Trump was underwater double digits in every monthly poll until January, and is now only single digits underwater. I think it's pretty clear that CNN and Suffolk are pretty massive outliers. There is much more evidence that Trump is -10 or -15ish than underwater 20-30 points.

[KingSweden]

You’re stating in the first sentence why everything else in your post can and should safely be ignored

[LimoLiberal]

On the other hand, these are horrible numbers for Trump out of Michigan.

EPIC-MRA Feb 24-27

Underwater in Favorability 36-55
Underwater in Approval 37-60

He won Michigan.

http://wlns.com/2018/03/01/poll-most-michiganders-dont-like-trump/

[Doimper]

On the other hand, these are horrible numbers for Trump out of Michigan.

EPIC-MRA Feb 24-27

Underwater in Favorability 36-55
Underwater in Approval 37-60

He won Michigan.

http://wlns.com/2018/03/01/poll-most-michiganders-dont-like-trump/

Devastating for Democrats.

[pbrower2a]

A recent poll suggests most Michiganders don’t like Donald Trump or the job he’s doing as president.

The poll by EPIC MRA shows that slightly more than a third (36%) of those asked had a favorable opinion of Trump, while slightly more than half (55%) had an unfavorable view of him.

When asked how he’s done as president so far, his positive number was about the same (37%), while his negative number grew slightly (60%).

http://wlns.com/2018/03/01/poll-most-michiganders-dont-like-trump/

Accepting the 'positive' as an approval measure as it relates to performance.  

South Carolina, for which I have seen no polls for nearly a year:

South Carolina: Winthrop University, Feb 17-25

Approve 42  (no change from last Spring)
Disapprove 50 (+3)

Approval ratings for Governor Henry McMaster (R) 47-25
Senator Lindsey Graham (R) 38-48
Senator Tim Scott (R) 53-28
Congress of the United States (majority R in both Houses)

11-78 overall; 7-88 Democrats, 20-69 Republicans

This is consistent with the most recent polls showing support of President Trump in near collapse in the  Deep and Mountain South.

A Texas poll is a favorability poll and it will not be used in the face of a recent approval poll.


Approval

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
47% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 46% medium red
under 42% deep red

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark red
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium red
50% or higher but negative pale red
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale blue
40% to 44% medium blue
under 40% deep blue


Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[pbrower2a]

Updated for Florida, Michigan, and South Carolina:

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

Cook PVI assumes a 50-50 Presidential election, reasonable since 2000 because except for the 2008 Presidential election all such exception, those five all were basically even for almost the entire electoral season. One can use polling to predict whether the next Presidential election will be a 50-50 proposition, and if not, how far the likely reality diverges from that assumption.

For DC (not measured) and Congressional districts that vote independently of states, I have common sense for Dee Cee and the congressional votes for those districts.

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)

............

Variation from PVI (polls from October 2017 and later):

Orange implies that President Trump projects to do better than Cook PVI based on 100-DIS. In Minnesota I have a 49-47 poll with which to work, and people in that thread tell me that the pollster who got those results is suspect. So the President is doing 2% better in California in accordance with 100-DIS than Cook PVI suggests. Not significant, obviously, because that is the difference between losing the Golden State 60-40 instead of 62-38.

This is likely the last that you will see of my  analysis of polling based on deviation from Cook PVI. I think we can be assured that President Trump is doing worse, in general in  polling, than something consistent with a 50-50 split of the popular vote.

Oh well, I have at least made this analysis more concise. With South Carolina offering a poll, I now have every state in the former Confederacy. My interpretation of data from the South is that President Trump is beginning to seem like an obnoxious d@mnyankee.

The sea of green suggests at this time that Donald Trump will face an electorate that will split against him.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

On the other hand, these are horrible numbers for Trump out of Michigan.

EPIC-MRA Feb 24-27

Underwater in Favorability 36-55
Underwater in Approval 37-60

He won Michigan.

http://wlns.com/2018/03/01/poll-most-michiganders-dont-like-trump/

What is happening in Michigan? Those numbers can't just be the Detroit area. TBH, I could see Trump tanking hard in the Dutch West as well as some booming college towns...

[Virginiá]

I mean, Michigan is a state that voted almost 10 points for Obama in 2012 and some absurd 16 points in 2008. I'd argue it is still a pres-level Leans D state, keeping in mind that Trump won with only 47.50% of the vote. He was never popular in MI. It's just Clinton was about as unpopular as him, and she lost out among people who hated both.

What I find truly amazing is that Trump is able to average out >40% approval in any aggregator. Think of everything he has done, his obscene and untrustworthy character, the ongoing investigation(s) into him/his campaign. It's really something. This guy is a joke, but so many people don't care and even enjoy it, as if having a moron in office is refreshing.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I could see Trump losing MI by a similar margin McCain did in 2008 if those numbers keep up.

[pbrower2a]

On the other hand, these are horrible numbers for Trump out of Michigan.

EPIC-MRA Feb 24-27

Underwater in Favorability 36-55
Underwater in Approval 37-60

He won Michigan.

http://wlns.com/2018/03/01/poll-most-michiganders-dont-like-trump/

What is happening in Michigan? Those numbers can't just be the Detroit area. TBH, I could see Trump tanking hard in the Dutch West as well as some booming college towns...

There may have been electoral hanky-panky in Michigan. The Democratic voter-contact list was hacked, with likely Democratic voters removed and Republican voters added. Democrats trying to turn out the vote near election day ended up telling Republicans to go out and vote while ignoring Democrats. The hacked voter list messed up canvassing by Democrats. That  is the worst possibility  -- that Trump did not win Michigan fair-and-square and polling results si9nce the election show such.

But that does not count for the huge margin. Donald Trump ran as a populist, often taking positions to the Left of Hillary Clinton. Once President he showed his true colors as a crony capitalist who believes that no human suffering is in excess so long as it turns, indulges, or enforces a profit.

His tax policy hurts the well-educated middle class and the 'blue-collar elite' that consists of people who still have well-paying blue-collar jobs, which both largely own their own homes. Trump's policies (any surprise here?) strongly favor landlords, which should hardly surprise anyone.  Michigan real estate in the Detroit area is cheap by national standards, but property taxes are brutal for valuations in Michigan due to a tax base in a state that has lost much of its industrial base. His tax policies   Capping the deduction for property taxes hurts home-owners.  Because Michigan has a non-growth economy, more people can own their own homes than can people in places with economic booms.

He threatened to tax a fantasy income of graduate students, which means that he should be about as popular in Ann Arbor and East Lansing as the KKK in Detroit.

He has done nothing for blue-collar workers that he seduced into voting for him... and he has done nothing for agriculture which is quickly becoming the #2 industry in the definitive Rust Belt state.

He has also set forth to ease the ravaging of the environment. Much recreation in Michigan is outdoors -- which is not so great for hunters, fishermen, hikers, and campers.  Michigan is an environmentalist state because of sportsmen.

...As is typical of a demagogue, he made promises that he could never keep. Except for his thinly-concealed bigotry and misogyny he kept much of his anti-human agenda (government for, by, and of plutocrats like him and "$crew you!" to everyone else. He has betrayed those who voted for him expecting more prosperity for people not already super-rich. In Michigan, many people think that his middle initial "J" stands for "Judas".

Note also that this polling follows the highly-publicized school shooting in Parkland, Florida; Donald Trump badly bungled his response to that.

My model has Donald Trump doing even worse than Jimmy Carter did in Michigan in his re-election bid. Jimmy Carter got 42% of the vote in Michigan in 1980. Sure, Carter got only 46% of the vote in 1976 in Michigan, but he got that challenging a favorite son.

It wouldn't take much of a shift of votes from R to D for Trump to lose Michigan in 2020.  But look also at Florida, which was also a close state in 2016. Donald Trump is gaining nowhere, and Michigan + Florida will be enough to make Donald Trump a one-term President.  

...I would really love to see polls of Arizona and Pennsylvania, wouldn't you?  

  

[KingSweden]

I have not once heard the theory that Dems were accidentally turning GOPers out.

[pbrower2a]

I have not once heard the theory that Dems were accidentally turning GOPers out.

The Democratic voter list was hacked. As one who usually canvasses for Democrats in major elections, that was a strong suspicion.