Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Helsinkian]

Polls regarding Finland's NATO membership used to show a consistent 50%+ opposed to it. Recently that has started to change, with one recent poll showing the situation as 30% in favour, 43% against and 27% undecided. Interestingly, the same poll indicates that if the government were to support NATO membership, then its support among the people goes up to 50%, with 33% opposed and 18% undecided.

[Helsinkian]

Ben & Jerry's sides with the Kremlin.

https://twitter.com/KareemRifai/status/1490053373516730369

[Helsinkian]

It seems clear that plenty of high-ranking Germans would jump at the opportunity to sign a modern day version of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact if given the chance.

https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1492035185524752391

[Helsinkian]

During the Cold War, Finland had plenty of self-described "peace activists" who denounced the U.S. but called Soviet weapons "missiles of peace". Mysteriously, many of their organisations found themselves in financial trouble soon after 1991.

Here is a British example of that type: Fiona Edwards is a national officer of the UK NGO "Stop the War" and describes herself as a "socialist, anti-racist, feminist, anti-imperialist". So of course she sides with Putin.

https://twitter.com/Fio_edwards/status/1492444755300651011

[Helsinkian]

Even if that had been the planned invasion date, you would think that Russia might want to postpone it in order to embarass Western intelligence information.

[Helsinkian]

So how soon before Finland asks to join NATO?

Our politicians are ostriches who love to stick their heads in sand and pretend that what happens to Ukraine and Georgia would not happen here. Some are still stuck in the finlandization mindset. Many more believe that Finland should follow Sweden's example in all things. If Sweden applies for NATO membership, Finland will also. If Sweden does not apply, I'm not sure our politicians will ever find the courage to apply alone.

Of course, application is just the first step. I could see Putin asking his buddy Orbán to veto our application. Though Finns and Hungarians are related, a lot of the right-wing Hungarians have never been very enthused about that relation and would rather imagine themselves as relatives of Turks.

[Helsinkian]

For group two, the Western Ukrainian nationalists, you are going to have to learn to live without the Donbass and probably the entire southeast as well, eventually. The best thing that the Ukrainian military could do is get out of the Donbass fast, before this turns into a much larger war.

"For the Czechoslovaks, you are going to have to learn to live without the Sudetenland... I believe it is peace for our time." t. Neville Chamberlain

[Helsinkian]

Ukraine is a mere sideshow for the United States, and it's an area that was under either Russian control or closest to Russia (vis a vis other power centers) since the reign of Catherine the Great. Intricate management of relations with the bigwigs of the world, for the sake of the country's broader long-term public interest - Russia, China, India, et cetera - ought to be much more important to America than whatever happens in Ukraine.
Preservation of this American national interest matters above all else. We must keep an open mind to things that will help renew it and protect it into the future.

Rhineland, Austria, Sudetenland, Memel, Danzig, Ethiopia, Mukden... I'm sure plenty of Americans considered those places to be sideshows to them in the 1930s as well. How did that turn out?

Bullies are only encouraged by weakness and appeasement. And when they keep on bullying, they will eventually bully someone you do care about -- or they'll just bully you. "How horrible, fantastic, incredible it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas-masks here because of a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing", said Chamberlain in 1938. A year later, they were digging those trenches anyway.

And if you want to go back to the times of Catherine the Great... Well, New Mexico was a part of Spain longer than it has been part of USA. Does Spain get to have it, then? And Russia, too, might want Alaska back -- after all, there are some Russian nationalists who claim that the czar did not have the authority to sell it...

[Helsinkian]

Reminder: in 2002 Putin said regarding Ukraine's Nato membership that "the decision is to be taken by NATO & Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners".

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1495423040909365249

https://twitter.com/ValoisDuBins/status/1495583736670613507

[Helsinkian]

It was before US showed in Iraq and Libya that you can sew chaos and deaths to millions, and nobody including people of Finland will care, if you're strong enough,. You set the precedent...

Already three years earlier Putin had killed over 300 Russians by blowing up their apartment buildings to create an excuse to kill thousands of Chechens.

[Helsinkian]

  Young people are already lukewarm on the administration, fighting for the fantasies of septuagenarian elites looking to relive the USSR glory days they weren't alive for can't help much on that front. The Kremlin can't disappear them all. Mark my words, a botched invasion is one of the very few things which can jeopardize Putin's grip on power.

They will try -- they will incinerate their own KIA soldiers on the battlefield to make sure there's no photos of caskets coming back to Russia:

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1496585861110059009

[Helsinkian]

We need to fight this. It won’t stop with Ukraine.

If you're ready to put on a helmet and take up an AK, go right ahead, but no sane Western power would risk sending boots on the ground to start WW3.

If he does go in, western troops will probably roll up en masse to the Baltics / Eastern Europe anyway, preventing further land grabs.

Isn't it the insane thing to do on the part of western nations to not intervene? Wouldn't the same thing be to defend the Ukrainians and their territorial sovereignty just as we claim? If we won't defend Ukrainian sovereignty like we say we support, then what is the word of a western nation worth?

I know what it isn't worth:

A WW3 with a country holding the #1 nuclear stockpile.

And if Putin were to invade Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, would there not be people trying to worm out of NATO's Article 5 commitments using that same argument?

[Helsinkian]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1496683014604140548

[Helsinkian]

Not directly. But it is possible that we are living in a period that future history books will cover under a chapter called "Road to World War 3".

[Helsinkian]

Why are the Ukrainians so badly spread at the northern border? no contact with Russian columns moving in

From Poland east to Luhansk, Ukraine's northern border with Belarus and Russia is 1,200 kilometers. That's nearly impossible to defend everywhere when you're also facing attack from the east and south.

I disagree. there are natural choke points and with good planning, you can use infantry to block most important routes. the Ukraine does not lack in menpower

Reserves were mobilized yesterday. That should have been done weeks ago.

[Helsinkian]

Would this be enough to spark a revolution to overthrow Putler? Or is there a mistranslation, or something?

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1496594912665604101

[Helsinkian]

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

Somebody else pointed out tonight that TECHNICALLY Russia was never appointed to the Security Council. The USSR was and then Russia wasn't kicked off the council after USSR became Russia. But by legal technicalities, Russia could be theoretically removed because it never went through the proper process or received approval of the UN to be on the council.

If you can do that then by the same logic ROC was the founding member of the Security Council so I think ROC should get back the China seat that it lost in 1971.  BTW, the current UN Security Council seat PRC has is still called "the ROC seat" since ROC was a founding member of UN and Security Council.

The thing is, Putin himself has claimed that Russia is no longer bound by the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on the grounds that, in his view, Ukraine of 1994 was a different country compared to Ukraine of today. Well, the Soviet Union of 1945 most certainly was a different country compared to Russia of today. (Well, there are some similarities...)

[Helsinkian]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1496840881537699851

One would think that this scenario would require a significant Russian occupation force for an indefinite period, right? Otherwise, what would prevent the Ukrainians from overthrowing the Quislings the next month?

[Helsinkian]

Italy has already made a joke of the whole sanctions process ("against NATO" is a typo):

https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1497194009038626842

[Helsinkian]

How about this: with Ukraine's approval, NATO troops are sent to Western Ukraine (which does not, as of now, have Russian troops in it) and set up a perimeter and a no-fly zone in that part of the country. If the Ukrainians are defeated in the east and in Kyiv, they can withdraw there, and Russia will not dare attack them with NATO present.

[Helsinkian]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

[Helsinkian]

New opinion poll in Finland, conducted from 23 to 25 February by the national broadcaster YLE:

"Should Finland join NATO?"

• Yes 53%
• No 28%

The "yes" share is up 34 points from 19% in 2017 when YLE last did such a poll.

Other questions:

"If Sweden were to join NATO, should Finland join NATO?"

• Yes 66%
• No 20%

"If the government were to support joining NATO, would you then support joining NATO?"

• Yes 63%
• No 23%

"Should there be a referendum on joining NATO?"

• Yes 41%
• No 48%

The government has not indicated, at least publicly, any change of mind on NATO, but then again things are moving quickly on many fronts: two days ago the government was against sending weapons to Ukraine, but now they are going to do it.

[Helsinkian]

Let's remember that Cyprus was admitted to the EU even though it was and still is in the middle of a major territorial dispute.

[Helsinkian]

Some of the people Putin claims to be "denazifying":

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1499002756073496577

[Helsinkian]

AFP claims that Lukoil wants the war to end.

https://twitter.com/robr1/status/1499418356847464456