Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[DavidB.]

Amazing thread with some real quality posts. Thanks, especially to the Irish posters!

I took the SmartVote test for Dublin South Central.

Fianna Fail 28
Indie (Richard Murray) 27
Renua 25
Indie (Paul Hand) 24
People Before Profit (wut) 24
Indie (Joan Collins) 24
Sinn Fein 21
Social Democrats 20
Direct Democracy Ireland 20
Green Party 18
Labour 18
Fine Gael 16

Very weird. Would probably give my first preference to Renua and my second preference to Fine Gael (stupid party, but the country has recovered quite well under their watch, it seems). Identity-wise I'd be much more inclined to support either Fianna Fail or Sinn Fein, as I can sympathize with the ideology of a United Ireland and in general tend to like populist nationalists that appeal to the working class (I care less about being economically right-wing), but FF is too anti-Israel and SF is both too anti-Israel (its 2016 manifesto even featuring "Free Palestine" bullsh[inks]) and too leftist, so that's not going to happen.

[DavidB.]

What is the date for the elections? I thought the rule was to put in in the thread title.

I will send Crab a PM about it.

[DavidB.]

As always, a great post, Jas. I have some questions. What is the depost threshold? And related to transfers: Do most people transfer their vote, or do they generally only indicate their first preference? If people transfer their vote, do they often do this "tactically", e.g. "FG has my first preference, but the second FG candidate in my constituency won't be elected anyway, so I'll give the Labour candidate my second preference in order to get him elected", or do they then often give the second FG candidate their second preference and give the Labour candidate their third preference? And what could we generally expect this time, in terms of transfers? I suppose most FG voters, who tend to approve of the government's record, would transfer to Labour, but the other way around... maybe not so much. And how do you think FF and SF voters will transfer?

[DavidB.]

What is the background of this [REDACTED] stuff all the time?

And how will the government look like if FG and Labour fall short of a majority by far (meaning that convincing some independents won't be enough)? Which scenarios are most likely? How likely is FF-SF?

[DavidB.]

Many thanks, ObserverIE!

[DavidB.]

By the way, why are Irish elections on Fridays?

[DavidB.]

They haven't always been; the 2007 election was on a Thursday, and other elections have taken place on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. The polling day has always followed the UK midweek convention rather than the continental tradition of Sunday elections.

Hmm, okay. Thought there might be a specific reason We always have elections on Wednesdays.

[DavidB.]

And the Irish Independent is... pro-coalition?

This kind of scaremongering against anti-establishment parties seldom works (well, it might work counterproductively).

[DavidB.]

I see much speculation about a new election. How likely is that?

[DavidB.]

What are the chances of Enda Kenny stepping down?

[DavidB.]

FF doing worse than expected here, it seems.

[DavidB.]

What a weird woman from AAA on RTÉ.

[DavidB.]

Tethro, what site do you use for this?

[DavidB.]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/boucherhayes/status/703648433106763776

wasn't aware ireland hires nevada republicans to do the counting...

and thanks, tethro!

[DavidB.]

Dublin Rathdown is the second constituency to finish. First seat goes to independent Shane Ross, as expected; second seat goes to Fine Gael (not to incumbent Alan Shatter, but rather his running-mate Josepha Madigan); and, out of completely nowhere, the last seat goes to Green Party candidate Catherine Martin.

Outstanding result for the Greens

Means I voted for a winner. Not sure what to feel about that.

For a start we can exclude any possibility of Sinn Fein or the Greens taking it...

(Sorry)

I immediately thought of this, but found it too mean to repost. Oh well (A) I'd rather have my prediction wrong but my preferred candidate elected than the reverse

[DavidB.]

How is it possible that some constituencies have finished 6 counts already and others haven't been able to finish the first count?

[DavidB.]

Dublin Bay South Count 1

FG * Murphy , E 16.5% 6567
FG O'Connell , K 13.6% 5399
FF O'Callaghan , J 11.5% 4575
GP Ryan , E 11.4% 4529
RN * Creighton , L 10.7% 4229
LAB * Humphreys , K 10.6% 4205
SF Andrews , C 9.5% 3774
SD Lynch , G 6.7% 2652
AAA-PBP Mooney , A 4.4% 1728
IND Flynn , M 3.8% 1525

terrible result for lucinda.

Not unexpected, but very disappointing

How is it possible that some constituencies have finished 6 counts already and others haven't been able to finish the first count?

Variances in constituency size/number of ballots to count; differences in the lengths of ballot papers; different numbers of candidates; disputes over ballots; general incompetence... take your pick.

fair enough

[DavidB.]

It seems that FF is exceeding exit polls.

Yes, and it also seems that both FF and (to a smaller extent) SF are quite transfer-friendly.

[DavidB.]

Kenny reelected in Mayo on 1st count. Still, first preference FG vote 14% down from 2011.

[DavidB.]

Wow, that is quite a surprise, to me at least.

I have always been skeptical about the idea that FF would be toxic for transfers this time (some polls also indicated that FF would get quite some transfers) -- after all, the government was unpopular and it was the main opposition party, so sometimes it's just that simple. However, given the fierce anti-SF campaign I am a bit surprised that SF does relatively well (or at least not visibly worse than other parties) with non-first-preference SF voters too.

[DavidB.]

I am still wondering how parties try to maximize their number of TDs in constituencies. I have seen they sometimes try to convince voters from certain areas within the constituency to vote for candidate X and voters from other areas for candidate Y. Is this widespread? And are there any other tactics?

Sad to see Alan Shatter lose re-election

Yes, it seems a large percentage of the Irish electorate has Failed once again.

[DavidB.]

I don't understand why he mentions his function as Taoiseach. If FF becomes the largest party, which afaik cannot be ruled out at this point, Kenny won't lead the government formation process, right? Or how does this exactly work?

[DavidB.]

Wow, I find Kenny's tone in the interview to be extraordinarily smug for a politician, I am amazed (and the RTÉ journalist was impolite, and her questions very insinuating).

[DavidB.]

I don't understand why he mentions his function as Taoiseach. If FF becomes the largest party, which afaik cannot be ruled out at this point, Kenny won't lead the government formation process, right? Or how does this exactly work?

There isn't really a formal formation process.

The new Dáil will convene on 10 March.
First order of business will be electing a Chair (known by the Irish language title, Ceann Comhairle).

Second order of business will be electing a Taoiseach.
Each party is entitled to submit a nominee, each of which gets an up or down vote until someone gets a majority in favour. The house may adjourn if its clear nobody can get such a majority.

Until such time as someone gets such a majority, Kenny will remain as acting Taoiseach.

Thanks for explaining this

[DavidB.]

RTÉ journalist in Dublin studio interviews FF candidate in Cork South-West, thinks she has not been elected yet, but candidate has, in fact, just been elected. Awkward! Not the first technology fail for RTÉ this evening.