IL-We Ask America: Rauner (R) up 12 (user search)
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  IL-We Ask America: Rauner (R) up 12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IL-We Ask America: Rauner (R) up 12  (Read 2268 times)
muon2
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« on: July 14, 2014, 09:49:29 PM »

This race has been ridiculously underpolled. The last non We Ask America poll was in early April.

Pollsters aren't prone to work for free.

There aren't many media groups that want to pay for regular polls here in IL. There will be some polls from the major outlets in the fall during the campaign, but the rest will be smaller buys or internal polling. When media outlets pay for polling they tend to have a long term relationship with a single firm.

That brings in WAA which is native to IL and has moved beyond its original roots as an arm of the manufacturers association. Capitol Fax is the most respected political blog in the state and is the only media outlet currently engaged in regular polling. It uses WAA as the pollster of choice, in part due to the in-state experience. Cap Fax dumped on many of the national pollsters who refused to poll the independent Cohen four years ago for Gov, and that resulted in Brady boosted by the other "not Quinn" votes. Like any good business, WAA will work with their client to ask the questions the client wants. It's worth noting that the Chicago Sun Times, the more left-leaning of the two major newspapers in the city, also now uses WAA for its polling.
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muon2
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2014, 06:28:46 AM »

PPP please do this race. I really don't buy the WAA breakdowns at all so far.

It's interesting that you cite PPP. Ten years ago they were perhaps the mirror of WAA. They started in 2001 as a regional firm for Dems, whose internal results were sometimes questioned on the right due to their sample. They only gained national prominence during the Obama-Clinton primaries in 2008.
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muon2
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2014, 10:27:33 PM »

Definitely take it with a grain of salt. It was commissioned by a blogger, which means more than likely, it was an automated poll and not live interviews. Automated polling is fine, if you're a tested pollster. WAA doesn't have a great track record. When you combine this with the fact that 1/3 of the calls were to mobile phones, I'm very skeptical. It's not like I'm automatically skeptical of either method; just when it comes to this pollster.

I wouldn't characterize the source as just a blogger. The site is run by one of the longest serving and most read (by insiders) statehouse reporters. He started his service providing a daily fax (hence the name) to subscribers before there was a web. He has posted about where and why pollsters have failed or succeeded in IL, so I suspect that he has had discussions with WAA about what to ask and what sample to select.
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