🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[rob in cal]

  I wonder if the Thuringia CDU is afraid that if they voted for Ramelow they would be setting themselves up for more losses to the AFD in the next election.

[Aurelio21]

The FDP Bundestag Caucus' deputy leader (and former Vice President of the European Parliament) Alexander Graf Lambsdorff has just tweeted that Thomas Kemmerich should resign immediately.

Kemmerich is such an idiot, it is incredible. His only chance now is to immediately step down and offer a public apology for accepting his election. Otherwise, we'll see new state elections very soon, which will most likely end in a disaster for both CDU and FDP.

Kemmerich and Lindner both approved this strategy. They want a slice of the CDU / AfD electorate. Exactly what made the comeback in 2017 possible. This short-sighted strategy is indeed idotic, in multiple ways:

FDP: Short term this maybe successfull (with the FDP getting some votes from CDU voters which disapprove the strategy of Mr. Mohring), long term is no need for an AfD light

CDU: Totally losing their credibility as "party of the middle". This day is the first of the last of Angela Merkel as strategist of the CDU opening itself to the left ,and AKK as she is a federal chairwoman without say in anything. She barely got re-elected with the argument of chaos without her. Now her authority is severely damaged, and can only repaired by either an agreement in Thuringia with the LINKE, and/or snap elections.

As you may have read my last post, the election of Kemmerich was coordinated in an meeting of all barons of the CDU Thuringia on election eve, including the benediction of Ex-PM Bernhard Vogel.

Thus stepping back either breaks the CDU Thuringia in the next election, or more likely AKK. Local chairman Mohring is also severely damaged and will likely not be a CDU leader in a snap election. He has agreed on a minority government, the only way to power for him.

[Aurelio21]

Next CDU-FDP-AfD cooperation candidate is Saxony-Anhalt, where Greens and CDU despise each other, and several district level CDU barons are calling for a CDU minority government supported by AfD and FDP.

After what happened today, there won't be any 'next' - the backlash we see right now is way too massive and AKK, Söder, and Ziemiak made it clear that any sort of (informal) cooperation with the AfD is not acceptable. And other than Mohring, Haseloff will do what they tell him.

As I have already observed at previous occassions, there's a significant and increasing split between the West German/federal CDU and the East German CDU (and apparently between their respective FDP counterparts) on the issue, so before a CDU-AfD coalition is actually forged in the Eastern states  the Eastern state chapters of the CDU may have to secede from the federal CDU and form sort of a East German CSU as a new and separate party.

The backlash is only in Western Germany, and will if not contained either severely damage the CDU here, or lead to a party split or exodus from CDU voters to the AfD in Eastern Germany. I am currently working in Eastern Germany, and talked with some colleagues. They totally approve of the actions of Mr. Kemmerich. "Die LINKE" is seen as party of yesterday, and not nearly as "hip" as in Western German Cities.

Any calls from the Greens to the CDU to exclude their sub-party from the CDU will only be met with more stubborness of the local CDU leaders. This is not how the CDU works. The party chairman has to integrate all internal squabbling to the outside. If not successful: Bye Bye Felicia. Or Bye Bye AKK

[Diouf]

Could have been a great option for FDP to do a "Busch Thor", who gained quickly after the last Swedish election (although later derailed by another abortion controversy) by being the first mainstream party, who stopped calling all voters for the right-wing party for nazis and racists and opening for cooperation with them. In the very best case, even an option for them to reach VVD/Venstre status in Germany (if CDU stayed on the Merkel course). However, FDP obviously also has a big share of MPs and elites members who are left-leaning on migration, so it was probably impossible for Lindner to make this move without too many internal problems, even though it seems a big possibility.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Could have been a great option for FDP to do a "Busch Thor", who gained quickly after the last Swedish election (although later derailed by another abortion controversy) by being the first mainstream party, who stopped calling all voters for the right-wing party for nazis and racists and opening for cooperation with them.

Bolded part: They also didn't do that before today's events.

However, FDP obviously also has a big share of MPs and elites members who are left-leaning on migration, so it was probably impossible for Lindner to make this move without too many internal problems, even though it seems a big possibility.

Bolded part: This isn't even the issue here.

A couple of pages back I quoted the deputy editor-in-chief of the BILD and the editor-in-chief of the Die Welt newspapers and both men showed themselves appalled by today's election of Kemmerich. Both newspapers can hardly be described as "left-wing" on immigration, I would even call BILD the most right-wing and most anti-immigration major newspaper in existence in Germany today.

This is rather about Björn Höcke being the leader of the Thuringian AfD and Björn Höcke disapproving of the existence of a Holocaust Memorial in Berlin among many, many other controversial statements.

[Aurelio21]

Could have been a great option for FDP to do a "Busch Thor", who gained quickly after the last Swedish election (although later derailed by another abortion controversy) by being the first mainstream party, who stopped calling all voters for the right-wing party for nazis and racists and opening for cooperation with them. In the very best case, even an option for them to reach VVD/Venstre status in Germany (if CDU stayed on the Merkel course). However, FDP obviously also has a big share of MPs and elites members who are left-leaning on migration, so it was probably impossible for Lindner to make this move without too many internal problems, even though it seems a big possibility.

This was the covert strategy of Mr. Lindner in the 2017 election: Present themselves as a rational AfD. Only few people believed this, but helped the FDP back into the Bundestag.
In fear of losing the voters Lindner dismissed the CDU/CSU FDP Greens coalition in the aftermath of the election.

In the end, the main electorate of the FDP profited of the cheap labor from the refugees and extended expenditures in health care (think: hoteliers and pharmaceutical lobby). They will definitely not support a AfD coalition on federal level, yet they accepted the "useful idiots" who where to shy to elect the AfD, but FDP instead.

This is the great divide between Western and Eastern Germany: Ecomonically, both FDPs share the same goals. Socially is already a perceivable rift, and ideologically the FDP-East is on the same side as East-CDU(consists of turncoat former DDR intelligentsia and entrepreneurship) and AfD-East( economically decidedly left, but ideologically/socially conservative). Culture beats economy in Eastern Germany, or tribalism.

For Western Germany, this does not work as social class is the main glue of the FDP-West. If they would have a need of disguising an anti-Welfare and anti-Regulation policy (As the AfD West tried to implement until recently), they would do it. But alas: These things have been done the alleged left-leaning parties SPD and Greens 15 years ago(Hartz reforms, tax code reform benefitting corporations, not the small business owner). Even the current CDU has implemented more pro-blue-and-white collar workers policies than the Schröder SPD! Thus there is no need for an FDP anymore, except for lobbying hoteliers and pharmacists.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I am currently working in Eastern Germany, and talked with some colleagues. They totally approve of the actions of Mr. Kemmerich. "Die LINKE" is seen as party of yesterday, and not nearly as "hip" as in Western German Cities.

Do you happen to work in Thuringia? Because the Left became strongest party in last October's election there. It's true though that the Left is considered to be in decline in Eastern states other than Thuringia. (And strictly speaking, if the Left weren't so strong in Thuringia, today's events would never have happened in the first place because there now would be CDU-SPD-FDP or CDU-SPD-Green majority government.)

[Aurelio21]

I am currently working in Eastern Germany, and talked with some colleagues. They totally approve of the actions of Mr. Kemmerich. "Die LINKE" is seen as party of yesterday, and not nearly as "hip" as in Western German Cities.

Do you happen to work in Thuringia? Because the Left became strongest party in last October's election there. It's true though that the Left is considered to be in decline in Eastern states other than Thuringia. (And strictly speaking, if the Left weren't so strong in Thuringia, today's events would never have happened in the first place because there now would be CDU-SPD-FDP or CDU-SPD-Green majority government.)

No, but the way people think is completely different from the typical Westerner like me, who is quite open for possible positive cultural things from abroad.
The Left in Thuringia immensely profited from Bodo Ramelow, a typical Westerner open to other cultural input. The other Left parties in other states are in decline due to A) Overaging and B) the AfD fitting better the cultural mood (socially conservative, economically left-leaning).

My predictions for a snap election are only valid for the assumption that Mr. Ramelow does it again. Else, the AfD may eclipse both CDU and LINKE. Note that the CDU was perceived until recently in the East as "Workers Party" because they fit better the cultural tribalism (as they existed in the DDR and primal profiteur from turncoats). Thanks to "Mutti's" "Wir schaffen das" they have lost this benefit.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Presidium of the federal CDU has just unanimously voted to support a snap election in Thuringia. Which is interesting because Thuringian state chairman Mike Mohring is also a member of the Presidium on the federal level. Which is interesting because an unnamed spokesman of the Thuringian CDU was quoted earlier tonight as saying that his state chapter is rejecting calls from the federal level to support a snap election.

Which raises the question: Did Mike Mohring not participate in the aforementioned Presidium vote or did he just vote against the CDU state chapter he himself is the chairman of?


In other news, the FDP state chairwoman of Hamburg, Katja Suding, has just issued a statement that Kemmerich should have never assumed the office of MP and that a snap election should be held in Thuringia.

[Aurelio21]

The Presidium of the federal CDU has just unanimously voted to support a snap election in Thuringia. Which is interesting because Thuringian state chairman Mike Mohring is also a member of the Presidium on the federal level. Which is interesting because an unnamed spokesman of the Thuringian CDU was quoted earlier tonight as saying that his state chapter is rejecting calls from the federal level to support a snap election.

Which raises the question: Did Mike Mohring not participate in the aforementioned Presidium vote or did he just vote against the CDU state chapter he himself is the chairman of?


In other news, the FDP state chairwoman of Hamburg, Katja Suding, has just issued a statement that Kemmerich should have never assumed the office of MP and that a snap election should be held in Thuringia.

This is quite easy: As Eastern German, you have learned to suppress your real opinion masterly. Mohring will of course 100 % be for a snap election - as long as he is within 100 m of AKK.

As soon as he is back in Erfurt, he will masterfully do everything covertly and/or openly to disregard this and undermine it.

He has done this before: After the election, he wanted to form a Linke-CDU government, than a minority government supporting him by AfD. The federal party prohibited him from both. This did not matter at all, as yesterday and today totally proved. He simply send Mr Kemmerich as front, who let himself be elected by CDU and AfD, and offered the CDU a share of government posts.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I am currently working in Eastern Germany, and talked with some colleagues. They totally approve of the actions of Mr. Kemmerich. "Die LINKE" is seen as party of yesterday, and not nearly as "hip" as in Western German Cities.

Do you happen to work in Thuringia? Because the Left became strongest party in last October's election there. It's true though that the Left is considered to be in decline in Eastern states other than Thuringia. (And strictly speaking, if the Left weren't so strong in Thuringia, today's events would never have happened in the first place because there now would be CDU-SPD-FDP or CDU-SPD-Green majority government.)

No, but the way people think is completely different from the typical Westerner like me, who is quite open for possible positive cultural things from abroad.
The Left in Thuringia immensely profited from Bodo Ramelow, a typical Westerner open to other cultural input. The other Left parties in other states are in decline due to A) Overaging and B) the AfD fitting better the cultural mood (socially conservative, economically left-leaning).

My predictions for a snap election are only valid for the assumption that Mr. Ramelow does it again. Else, the AfD may eclipse both CDU and LINKE. Note that the CDU was perceived until recently in the East as "Workers Party" because they fit better the cultural tribalism (as they existed in the DDR and primal profiteur from turncoats). Thanks to "Mutti's" "Wir schaffen das" they have lost this benefit.

The Left in Thuringia has also managed to over the role the SPD is filling in states like Brandeburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and it's unclear whether this would simply switch back as soon Ramelow is gone (I assume Ramelow is still the Left's lead candidate in case of a snap election). Maybe this could and would be solidified as a Thuringian Sonderweg.

[Aurelio21]

The Left in Thuringia has also managed to over the role the SPD is filling in states like Brandeburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and it's unclear whether this would simply switch back as soon Ramelow is gone (I assume Ramelow is still the Left's lead candidate in case of a snap election). Maybe this could and would be solidified as a Thuringian Sonderweg.

Elections here are more personality-driven than by party loyalty or "big topics". Thus the Greens will not profit as much as in Western Germany.

Die LINKE will renominate Ramelow, and will get votes from even more CDU-friendly voters than last time. Everything else would only benefit Mr. Kemmerich, who will dread this day as he and his family already receiving death threads from insanes.

It is quite clear what will happen next: AfD will profit massively, LINKE will extend or hold the level of support. FDP will likely get the votes from those who hated the R2G coalition as well. Losers will be CDU, SPD and Greens. The latter will have to fight for their existence, as the snap election campaign will be extremely polarizing(Bad Luck, SPD) and have no room for topics like ecology(Bad Luck, Greens).

[Middle-aged Europe]

No, but the way people think is completely different from the typical Westerner like me, who is quite open for possible positive cultural things from abroad.

This is quite easy: As Eastern German, you have learned to suppress your real opinion masterly. Mohring will of course 100 % be for a snap election - as long as he is within 100 m of AKK.

Btw, I would also caution against overgeneralizations of East Germans. I was born in East Germany, my parents still live there, both voted for the Greens in last year's European Parliament elections (my father probably for the first time in at least 25 years - previously supported the FDP in 2017), and if anything the AfD's rise caused them to actually become more accepting of immigrants, since they felt that the AfD had gone way too far and that pushed them in the opposite direction. They were also shocked about today's events in Thuringia.

Then again, they do live in urban Halle (Saale) where the Greens came in second after the CDU in the 2019 European election.

[Aurelio21]

No, but the way people think is completely different from the typical Westerner like me, who is quite open for possible positive cultural things from abroad.

This is quite easy: As Eastern German, you have learned to suppress your real opinion masterly. Mohring will of course 100 % be for a snap election - as long as he is within 100 m of AKK.

Btw, I would also caution against overgeneralizations of East Germans. I was born in East Germany, my parents still live there, both voted for the Greens in last year's European Parliament elections (my father probably for the first time in at least 25 years - previously supported the FDP in 2017), and if anything the AfD's rise caused them to actually become more accepting of immigrants, since they felt that the AfD had gone way too far and that pushed them in the opposite direction. They were also shocked about today's events in Thuringia.

Then again, they do live in urban Halle (Saale) where the Greens came in second after the CDU in the 2019 European election.

Sorry for the generalization. I take this back. Of course, there are many brave men and women who made "Die Wende" possible. And living in cities like Halle cannot be compared to the average mood in a rather rural state or dominated by rural culture states, which are not dependend on tourist indurstry.

Obiviously, Mr Mohring is pretty good at "double talk" and finding a hole or a loop.

And there will be some backslash, arguably by a guaranteed win of Mr. Ramelow. And a surging AfD.

Would Mr Mohring have a "real job", he would have to apply to some rather unpleasant job as he would have been fired in complete disgrace.

[urutzizu]

Aurelio mentioned it already but East-West narrative is going to be extremely important here. I am not comfortable with Thomas Kemmerichs election either. But Western politician after western politician coming out saying "You cant do that!" "You must vote again!" is going to play right into the AFDs hands.

Oh and we should end secret ballots for elections of the MPs. Heide Simonis and now this. Just incentives Skullduggery. Have roll call votes instead.

[Former President tack50]

This is very ironic that all the discussion is on the FDP and Kemmerich when to me the real story is the vote of the much larger CDU bloc voting for Kemmerich.  If the CDU was so concerned about Kemmerich winning with a AFD backed plurality vote, all they needed to do was abstain and let Ramelow be reelected.

Correct. The CDU's goal was to get rid of Ramelow and now that they got what they wanted, they throw Kemmerich under the bus. They are as much to blame as the FDP.

Why would Ramelow be gone? He is definitely going to be Linke's candidate for the next election given his popularity right? Especially if snap elections happen soon.

In fact there is a slim chance of a Red-Red-Green majority if FDP falls below threshold I think (maybe combined with some sort of CDU->SPD/Greens transfer of votes).

Granted I think a more likely scenario is FDP actually gaining for their "bravery" and "being the only true right wing party in Germany that is not insane" but still

[Aurelio21]

Why would Ramelow be gone? He is definitely going to be Linke's candidate for the next election given his popularity right? Especially if snap elections happen soon.

In fact there is a slim chance of a Red-Red-Green majority if FDP falls below threshold I think (maybe combined with some sort of CDU->SPD/Greens transfer of votes).

Granted I think a more likely scenario is FDP actually gaining for their "bravery" and "being the only true right wing party in Germany that is not insane" but still

Mr. Ramelow will not be gone. He is right now the most popular politician with an approval rate of 75 % - among CDU voters , better than the average.

FDP will gain some votes for "their Courage" via whisper Campaign.

The big winner will be the AfD, which is totally exonerated.

I would like to discuss the repurcussions in Western Germany. For the CDU, this is an unmitigated disaster, no matter what will happen. A snap election seems likely on the outward appearance- if Mr Mohring does not change his opinion again or has only done lip Services at the mentioned CDU presidium meeting.

Scenario A1: Snap election with moderate losses of the CDU and SPD stays in Thuringian diet:
AKK is save, for now. Maybe she will be the next main candidate , Maybe Mr. Merz will be finally successful at sniping

Scenario A2: Snap elections with severe losses (5 % plus x) for the CDU, the SPD Thuringia exterminated: At first, this keeps the SPD in government in awe of a final defeat. AKK will have to cede the chancellorship to Mr. Merz, or Mr. Laschet

Scenario B: Mr Mohring decides he cannot do anything as the CDU Thuringia MPs are free to do anything they want, even accidently not following the orders of AKK and the federal CDU. AKK will step back immediately after the defeat of the motion of no confidence at Thuringia diet. Mr. Merz, the likely co-conspirator of Mr. Mohring is the next chairman of the CDU. Mr. Laschet cannot react, as the majority of the CDU functionaries love power above everything else. The Merkelista defeat is complete.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A defiant Thomas Kemmerich has rejected calls for a snap election in Thuringia. Considering that SPD and Greens have rejected his offer to join the government, and he rejects "any cooperation" with the AfD, and his own federal chairman said there needs to be a snap election if SPD and Greens don't join the government, it's not entirely clear what his mid-term perspective is here. Together, CDU and FDP hold 29% of all seats in state parliament and as soon as a motion of confidence comes around he could be gone.

Kemmerich also postponed the appointment of ministers which means for the time being he's governing without a cabinet. That Kemmerich is personally fullfilling all government functions himself for the time being is farcical. Or do the Left-SPD-Green ministers simply continue in an acting capacity now? If so, will they resign? Does that mean that a bunch of state secretaries are de facto acting ministers now?

I'm confused as to what the consitution says on the matter. I think the current situation that a minister-president from a party with only five parliamentary seats is "accidentally" elected without any prior official government formation agreements is pretty much unprecedented in our nation's history.

[President Johnson]

What a mess. It's clearly ignorant to the voters, who wanted to keep Ramelow minister-president. He's one of the best members of his party.

I predict there will be a snap election within a matter of months. A CDU-FDP minority government that is far from an own majority won't get anything done since SPD and Greens already ruled cooperation out. If not earlier, as soon as a new annual budget needs to be passesd, the Kemmerich cabinet is finished and new election will take place. Hopefully this strenghtens Ramelow's support and costs the AfD votes.

[Flyersfan232]

This is very ironic that all the discussion is on the FDP and Kemmerich when to me the real story is the vote of the much larger CDU bloc voting for Kemmerich.  If the CDU was so concerned about Kemmerich winning with a AFD backed plurality vote, all they needed to do was abstain and let Ramelow be reelected.

Correct. The CDU's goal was to get rid of Ramelow and now that they got what they wanted, they throw Kemmerich under the bus. They are as much to blame as the FDP.

Question why is working it’s the left party not seen as bad as working with the right?

[Cassius]

This is very ironic that all the discussion is on the FDP and Kemmerich when to me the real story is the vote of the much larger CDU bloc voting for Kemmerich.  If the CDU was so concerned about Kemmerich winning with a AFD backed plurality vote, all they needed to do was abstain and let Ramelow be reelected.

Correct. The CDU's goal was to get rid of Ramelow and now that they got what they wanted, they throw Kemmerich under the bus. They are as much to blame as the FDP.

Question why is working it’s the left party not seen as bad as working with the right?

Whilst Die Linke does stem, partly, from the PDS (which was the successor to the East German SED and thus very controversial in its own right), it is not, nowadays, particularly far to the left, especially not in Thuringia, where Ramelow is seen as a moderate and is also a West German and thus has no links to the old regime in the East. The AfD on the other hand, whilst in some ways it’s quite a broad party ideologically speaking, is seen as too far to the right to be an acceptable government partner, for understandable historical reasons. This is particularly pertinent in the case of Thuringia as Björn Höcke (the state AfD’s leader) is considered to be very right-wing even by the standards of the AfD, and has caused controversy with his comments on remembrance of the Holocaust and through his attacks on journalists.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is very ironic that all the discussion is on the FDP and Kemmerich when to me the real story is the vote of the much larger CDU bloc voting for Kemmerich.  If the CDU was so concerned about Kemmerich winning with a AFD backed plurality vote, all they needed to do was abstain and let Ramelow be reelected.

Correct. The CDU's goal was to get rid of Ramelow and now that they got what they wanted, they throw Kemmerich under the bus. They are as much to blame as the FDP.

Question why is working it’s the left party not seen as bad as working with the right?

The short answer is that Nazi Germany is considered to be worse than the German Democratic Republic.

A more present-day explanation would be that since its formation in 2013 the AfD has been constantly moving to the right (and losing two previous chairpersons over it - it has become a bit of a habit that they topple their party chairs for being seen as to moderate and those previous chairs eventually leave the party altogether), while the PDS/Left has been constantly moving away from the far-left since 1990.

And in Thuringia this is particularly the case with Björn Höcke who is seen as the most right-wing state chairmen of all AfD state chairmen and Bodo Ramelow is seen as one of the most moderate figures within the Left Party. A frequent reason given for rejecting the new minister-president today was indeed "Höcke!".

[windjammer]

Kemmerich is going to have a slimmer majority than Franz von Papen. Congrats!

[Middle-aged Europe]

There seems to be only one historical (well, sort of, certainly less controversial) precedent for today's events:

In 1976, incumbent Lower Saxon minister-president Alfred Kubel (SPD) retired and was supposed to be replaced by state finance minister Helmut Kasimier (SPD). Normally this would have been a routine event, but since the governing SPD/FDP election held only a slim one-seat majority in state parliament CDU backbencher Ernst Albrecht (used to be a deputy leader of the state parliament's CDU caucus until one or two years prior) was running against Kasimier and got surprisingly elected minister-president in a close vote due to apparent, but anonymous defectors from the government's camp.

Albrecht then continued with a CDU minority government (since SPD and FDP technically still held the majority) until the next year when he formally got the FDP on board.

(Trivia: Ernst Albrecht was also incumbent European Commission president's Ursula von der Leyen's father.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kemmerich is going to have a slimmer majority than Franz von Papen. Congrats!

Satirical shows on TV and satirical websites are certainly going to live from today's events and it repercussions for the next couple of months alone.