2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Skill and Chance]

Here's a clue of how precise this map was made -

Districts 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 17, 18, 24, and 25 are ALL within 39.9% to 43.3% Biden 2020.   A top to bottom margin of only 3.4%.   

Twelve districts total, all of them in and around the four major metros.

So this likely holds for the decade, but it would probably be an instant Dem supermajority after a blowout midterm.  Interesting.

[Skill and Chance]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Goes to show that public pressure for cleaner maps works in most places, most of the time.  So far, the really aggressive stuff is limited to the state legislatures. 

[Skill and Chance]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Goes to show that public pressure for cleaner maps works in most places, most of the time.  So far, the really aggressive stuff is limited to the state legislatures. 

You'd think it would be hard to gerrymander state legislatures too, But I guess not.  What I mean is, if you have large rural areas it's kind of hard to do "fajitas" when the population of the districts is so low.  The GOP's suburban coalition of 2010 made it much easier for them to gerrymander than their rural/exurban coalition of 2020.  If Dems had power they could actually do a lot of damage in redistricting. 

There is a dramatic geographic bias in favor of Democrats in Texas.  Beto won a 76/74 majority of the state house seats in 2018, and on a court drawn map he likely wins 80 or more while losing statewide.

Due to a peculiarity of the Texas state constitution, it is possible to control, not just block, the state legislative redistricting process by winning only statewide offices.  If the governor vetoes the legislature's proposals, it goes to a commission of the LG, AG, Comptroller, Land Commissioner, and the Speaker of the House to draw the maps by majority vote.  So if the out party wins the governorship and at least 3 of those 4 row offices in the redistricting year, they get to gerrymander against the majority party in the state legislature.  Republicans did this in 2001-02.  This process doesn't apply to the congressional map, but it can be redrawn mid-decade if the legislature flips, as Republicans did in 2003-04.

I personally doubt that Texas is actually going to turn into a left-leaning state, but if 2030 is a Dem midterm wave, it's entirely possible they could get to draw the 2030's legislative maps.  

[Skill and Chance]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Florida and NC are the two big prizes out there which can still deliver sizable advantages to Rs over the current court-mandated maps.

Yeah, I am most worried about FL.  But wouldn't Dems just go back to the Courts in NC?  I suppose that process might take too long to save them in 2022 though. 

I think worst case scenario:

GOP +3 in FL
NC +2 in NC

They do have a few very weak incumbents in FL to protect.

I think the courts are going to be tipping R or have tipped R in NC... I don't know the details but I think Rs have a 1-seat majority now.

Rs control the appeals court which flipped in 2020. The Supreme Court is now barely D controlled but the Chief justice is  an R who gets to choose the court of appeals panels.

I think the issue is that after a (likely pro-GOP because of the CJ choosing the panel) ruling at the appeals court level, this case wouldn't reach the NC Supreme Court until after the 2022 judicial elections.  3 of the 4 Dem seats are up in 2022, so Dems would have to hold all of them to strike down the map in 2023.  They lost all of the seats that were up in 2020, so this will be hard to say the least.

[Skill and Chance]

It's interesting that they absolutely went to town on Houston, where they probably have the least to worry about, but then they drew that 25th district between San Antonio and Austin that could easily be Likely Dem by 2030.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade. 

[Skill and Chance]

From what I’m seeing seems like the GOP is willing to do pretty intense gerrymanders but are still being cautious of the VRA; maybe they want to avoid the risk of the whole map being redrawn?

Yep.  This continues the trend of going to town on Houston and North Dallas while treading carefully elsewhere.

Do we think that district 10 is rural enough to hold for the decade?   

[Skill and Chance]

From what I’m seeing seems like the GOP is willing to do pretty intense gerrymanders but are still being cautious of the VRA; maybe they want to avoid the risk of the whole map being redrawn?

Yep.  This continues the trend of going to town on Houston and North Dallas while treading carefully elsewhere.

Do we think that district 10 is rural enough to hold for the decade?   

10 probably can last the entire decade.
If I had to guess, 12 is likely the most marginal come 2030, but it's hard to tell exactly.

Hmmm... I would think 6 would flip first if the state moves left.

[Skill and Chance]

They clearly decided to vote-sink Fletcher with the Dem parts of Ft. Bend to protect Nehls and give Wesley Hunt a seat.

This is pretty tame outside of DFW and CD-10. 

TX-15 is still a Biden district.

[Skill and Chance]

Is there a link we can use to zoom in?

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703c8-1692-4b94-8ed1-9cbf2b2fa7dd/resource/e0b01e67-ef1c-493f-8012-4ade59aebc34/download/planc2101.pdf

I'm counting 15 seats Dems could win, although I don't know about 24 and 38.

TX-10 is pretty needlessly absurd.

I doubt TX-10, TX-03, and TX-24 will last the decade, but they should pick up TX-15 at some point.   

[Skill and Chance]

Is there a link we can use to zoom in?

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703c8-1692-4b94-8ed1-9cbf2b2fa7dd/resource/e0b01e67-ef1c-493f-8012-4ade59aebc34/download/planc2101.pdf

I'm counting 15 seats Dems could win, although I don't know about 24 and 38.

TX-10 is pretty needlessly absurd.

I doubt TX-10, TX-03, and TX-24 will last the decade, but they should pick up TX-15 at some point.   

Maybe TX-38 as well.

Unlikely.  It's closer than some others on paper, but the swing vote in that seat is now going to be petroleum engineers.  While they may have been culturally turned off by Trump, they have zero reason to vote for a generic Democrat downballot and now Biden has really messed with their jobs.  

[Skill and Chance]

They clearly decided to vote-sink Fletcher with the Dem parts of Ft. Bend to protect Nehls and give Wesley Hunt a seat.

This is pretty tame outside of DFW and CD-10. 

TX-15 is still a Biden district.

No its Trump +2

Thanks.  Must have gotten the county split wrong.  That's 2020, right?  How much did Clinton win it by?

[Skill and Chance]

Basically, this works for them +/- 1-2 seats unless DFW goes full Atlanta, and they could still cancel that out if the RGV goes the way of coal country in the 2000's.

[Skill and Chance]

Actually TX-21 looks like the possible Austin area flip, not TX-10.  I would imagine Chip Roy has made some enemies in the GOP legislative caucus!

[Skill and Chance]

Conservative Election Twitter is not happy right now.

I don't see why, it's a pretty good map for Republicans

I know.  While Dems will probably get TX-21 and at least one more seat out of DFW by the end of the decade, Republicans will probably flip TX-15 next year and TX-28 whenever Cuellar retires.  I don't see what's not to like for TX R's?  If Dems can take a majority of the seats on this map by the end of the decade, it was an AR 2011 style lost cause anyway.  

[Skill and Chance]

“Everybody knows you're gonna have to give stuff up, and some people are gonna get things,” said GOP Rep. Ronny Jackson, who represents the most Republican-leaning seat in the state, where Trump beat President Joe Biden by 60 points. “In particular I'm an R+33," he added, referencing the district's Partisan Voter Index. "So I just walked into this knowing like I'm giving up a lot, you know? I mean, I'm not gonna be an R+33 anymore — there's just no way.”

Ronny Jackson understood the assignment.

Ironically, he's one of the few Republicans who could actually lose a double digit Trump seat (something like a 55% Trump/43% Biden seat, in an R president midterm), but they only took him from ~80% to ~70% Trump, so he's still completely safe.

[Skill and Chance]

The TX GOP Congressional proposal is patently absurd in terms of the district shapes. It is hard to say whether TX-04, TX-33, or TX-10, is the craziest. I'll go with TX-33 I think. Gotta love that wrap-around...

But in terms of the partisan effects, it is probably about the best that TX Dems could realistically hope the Republicans would draw, because they didn't go *as* crazy as they could have. They didn't go after TX-32, TX-7, or try to dismantle VRA seats, so there is at least some acknowledgement of demographic reality there. Possibly TX-38 might also be competitive-ish by the end of the decade. Probably not, but at least possibly. And I am not sure TX-22 and TX-24 are totally out of the woods, but realistically should remain pretty easily R for a decade.

Of course, the reason for that is not a sudden appreciation for good government or scruples against gerrymandering, rather it is just to protect incumbents (for example, the "community of interest" good government redistricting of TX-13 taking in Denton).

They clearly believe they can flip 2/3 of the RGV VRA seats this decade and hold TX-23.  In this case, preserving the VRA configuration is in their interest.  In the event Dems control the process in the 2030's or it deadlocks and goes to court, they can sue to preserve a bunch of R seats along the border and keep the Dem packed configuration of TX-07.  The 5th Circuit might suddenly have a new appreciation for the VRA...

[Skill and Chance]

So why did they decide to go MD-02/03/04 on DFW and also be so polite everywhere else?  

[Skill and Chance]

Here's my calculations

So 24 and 3 trade places with 15 and 28 by the end of the decade?  After that, everything is likely safe unless Travis gets up over 80% Dem.

[Skill and Chance]

Do you know who's favoured in the Austin Thunderdome for the new ultra blue district ?

Wouldn't it be Doggett's to lose?  That would open up his current seat, likely for a San Antonio Hispanic Dem. 

[Skill and Chance]

My guess is Doggett stays in TX-35 and TX-37 becomes a very bloody free-for-all. The top finisher probably gets less than 25% of the vote in the first round. I bet there'll be at least one serious JD/DSA-aligned contender.

I kind of think it's Sarah Eckhardt's to loose if Doggett stays put. 

[Skill and Chance]

I'm reading online that Democrats could win around 88 seats on this map (out of 150) within the next few cycles.

This map has serious AR 2011 potential.  As others have mentioned, there are strict county-splitting rules, so all of the gerrymandering has be within the urban counties, and there is only so much you can do when basically all of the R areas are moving left and you can't attach rural areas.  This chamber is basically gone in the first R midterm of the decade, even if R's still sweep statewide.

BTW if 2030 is an R midterm, there's a very decent chance Dems will have backdoor control of redistricting.  They would only need the house speaker, the governor, and 2 of LG/AG/Comptroller/Land Commissioner.  LG and AG are the weakest statewide incumbents.       

[Skill and Chance]

Here we go again ig

Predictions?

Predictions for what?

Redistricting; they’re taking it up again and are gonna make some changes.

For congress, or just the legislative maps?

I think for both, but can’t confirm. There’s a few articles on it but the information is vague.

The main concerns seem to be that they passed the maps too late in the previous session cause of delayed census, and some legal concerns around the maps.

They can’t honestly do much more in terms of maximizing their gerrymanders.

For congressional, they could theoretically crack heavily Hispanic TX-29 in Houston but that could cuss a VRA legal issue. They might also try to optimize the RGV a bit more. Idk.

My understanding is the Texas constitution requires state legislative redistricting to pass in the first *regular* session after the new census data is received.  Because the 2020 census data wasn't received until after the regular session that year ended, maps had to be passed in the special session that would presumably be valid only for 2022 and then replaced for the decade by whatever the 2023 session draws.

There should be no constitutional obligation to redo the congressional map, but there's nothing prohibiting it either in Texas.