As to top Conservative, I suppose a look at Buffalo Party and Wildrose results may give a hint in terms of the degree to which individual Conservative ridings in rural Alberta and Saskatchewan are particularly likely to see significant leakage on the right. But I think backlash against "that damn eastern bastard O'Toole and his carbon tax" will turn out to be pretty minimal on election day so not sure how much the order shifts.
Battle River-Crowfoot had its best Tory result in 2019, interestingly. It may well have peaked; after all, it was it its most Tory when the country was decidedly not. In 1984, when Mulroney got an absolute majority of the popular vote, its partial predecessor Crowfoot was only at 78% Tory, compared to 85% in 2019. In this seat Reform+PC got in the high 80s not long afterwards.
Insofar as it moves at all (we are talking about a few points here and there I think), I doubt it is likely to go in the same direction as the rest of Canada. That said, I can't say which alternative is more likely.
