2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[Former President tack50]

Would the remaining Dem district in St. Louis be VRA protected? Because an 8-0 map is not exactly impossible if you can cut that remaining district, although it is not the safest of maps:



Also including 2016-Senate results because why not

MO-01: R+12 (Trump 59-36; Blunt 52-43)
MO-02: R+7 (Trump 56-39; Kander 47.6-47.3)
MO-03: R+6 (Trump 56-39; Kander 48-47.
MO-04: R+10 (Trump 56-38; Kander 48-47)
MO-05: R+7 (Trump 55-40; Blunt 48.1-47.9)
MO-06: R+6 (Trump 55-40; Kander 49-46)
MO-07: R+8 (Trump 57-38; Blunt 50-46)
MO-08: R+13 (Trump 60-35; Blunt 54-42)

So basically you get all 8 Trump districts with him winning by no less than 15 points. In a "perfect storm" like the 2016 Senate race the map does break, with 4 districts voting for Kander, though even there 4 districts end up in essencially statistical ties and are decided by less than 1 point.

Of course with trends and what not I imagine at least one of these districts would break?

[Former President tack50]

My attempt at an R gerrymander of Missouri that keeps Kansas City limits itself whole. Sadly I was unable to make this a proper 7-1 map, instead having to go with 6-1-1. I also tried to keep other COIs relatively intact.



MO-01: Clinton+55, D+27, 50% black
MO-02: Trump+25, R+11
MO-03: Trump+25, R+14
MO-04: Trump+18, R+10
MO-05: Trump+3, EVEN
MO-06: Trump+34, R+16
MO-07: Trump+55, R+23
MO-08: Trump+55, R+26

For the record, in 2016 Kander wins the 5th district by double digits, ekes out a narrow win in the 4th district by 0.4% and loses the 2nd district by 4 points and the third by 9 points

[Former President tack50]

Is that a fair map or some sort of gerrymander?

[Former President tack50]

My thoughts on what a 6-2 Missouri map will probably look like:

snip

Wouldn't Republicans want to at least shore up the 2nd district by more than that? Trump+7 is not exactly a safe district even if it'd be a heavy lift for Dems.

[Former President tack50]

Anyways, here is my attempt at "shoring up the 2nd district" like I mentioned. It's actually harder than it looks. This is a relatively clean map that gives all incumbents their home, although I will admit that it is quite a heavy reconfiguration of most of the map, so they might be angry regardless.

Districts 2 and 3 in this map would be around Trump+19.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/377a39e5-8490-4d1b-885f-56856b9faaa2