NJ-2: Van Drew considering switching parties over impeachment

[DrScholl]

If Democrats can get their map chosen in redistricting they could easily draw a bluer seat by putting Ocean County in NJ-4 (why it is split three ways makes no sense). 2020 is the last time the current map will be used. With that being said I don't think Van Drew will lose the primary unless things get much, much worse for Trump where he can't avoid voting for impeachment (at which point he would probably have to vote to impeach). Not that things aren't bad enough from what the testimony has demonstrated.

I can understand why someone would challenge Van Drew based on impeachment. We aren't talking about a partisan issue, but the rule of law.

[DrScholl]

I wouldn't assume that switching parties will save the seat for him. We aren't talking about a seat in Oklahoma or Kentucky here. He'll lose a lot of the Democratic votes he gets here and will have to rely on gaining Republican leaning ones to get him through. Not impossible, but it's not that easy either.

[DrScholl]

I wouldn't assume that switching parties will save the seat for him. We aren't talking about a seat in Oklahoma or Kentucky here. He'll lose a lot of the Democratic votes he gets here and will have to rely on gaining Republican leaning ones to get him through. Not impossible, but it's not that easy either.

Well, it's not OK/KY, but it swung right about as hard as Ohio did in 2016 and Republicans picked up a bunch of overlapping and nearby state legislative seats this year.  I think this areas is pretty gone for Dems going forward.

As far as I can tell Republicans only picked up Van Drew's old state senate seat and the assembly districts, not "a bunch of overlapping and nearby state legislative seats". Three seats is not "a bunch" and that particular area has been traditionally Republican for quite a while.

[DrScholl]

Some people here are acting as if this district is in West Texas. It's only voted for the Republican nominee for President twice out of 7 presidential elections and could very well flip back in 2020. Phil Murphy carried the district in the gubernatorial race and the statewide numbers were only a couple of points different than the presidential ones.