Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[President Johnson]

When I just read the headline, I knew this was a Bronz post.

Maybe because she has better policies to benefit everyone?

Are you sure about that? She's Atlanta-centric. What will she do for rural voters? What will Kemp or Abrams do for Georgia?

Raise the minimum wage, fight special interests in politics, invest in education and infrastructure, expand healthcare, protect civil rights and promote common-sense gun laws. Kemp will be a puppet of his donors, not expand medical care, and pursue a far-right agenda. Sure, if you're hard right, he's your man.

Can she do that with a GOP-controlled State Legislature? Will she be railroaded like Obama?

A reason more to vote for Democrats down-ballot. She can at least block bad Republican policies including gerrymandering in 2020. The legislature is hardly an argument to vote not for someone.

[Rookie Yinzer]

When I just read the headline, I knew this was a Bronz post.

Maybe because she has better policies to benefit everyone?

Are you sure about that? She's Atlanta-centric. What will she do for rural voters? What will Kemp or Abrams do for Georgia?

Atlanta-centric? That is a blatant lie and honestly a bunch of horse sh**t.

[smoltchanov]

What benefit is there for any black person in Georgia to vote for Republican Brian Kemp in the 2018 gubernatorial election?

No benefits (Kemp is insane, inlike Deal). Except for ideologically conservatie Blacks (there are some, i suppose)

[President Johnson]

Because Kemp is strong at the border.

(Even though Georgia hasn't a border to Mexico, Donald Trump logic).

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Bronz, please stop starting two million sh**tty threads per day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can Abrams even get 30% of the white vote?

Can Kemp even get 6% of the black vote?

Will Vinings and the Republican Atlanta suburbs vote for Abrams?

These questions, and many others, will be answered on the next episode of Soap!

[Adam Griffin]

So in regards to my "50% +1" model: here's the problem I'm running into (and one I've expressed on here before).

Starting with 2014 as the baseline (in terms of margins & total votes; however, this is based on margins predominantly, meaning the raw vote isn't relevant except in making my initial spreadsheet formula calcs easier), Abrams would be down 262k votes (or 10 percentage points; in terms of getting to 50%). She must overcome not only the 202k vote deficit that Carter had, but an additional 60k in third party votes.

I can see easily how she can net 200k votes and actually pull off a plurality. After stretching the 30 counties in green (i.e. most-populated and/or regional metros; 52-44 Clinton) to what I believe are the realistic maximums margin-wise, she nets 203k over Carter - which is coincidentally almost the exact amount by which Deal beat Carter. But she still needs another 59k net votes to win a majority...out of the areas that remain (counties in red & blue; 69-29 Trump).

In fact, the areas in green are ~75% of the state's population and Abrams has pulled 75% of her needed majority margin from those counties, meaning...she'd need swings in that heavily-GOP remainder of the state to be just as big in her favor as in the already-calculated area (a huge segment of which is Metro ATL & urban GA). This is where the math gets difficult - unless you start assuming that she can pull 75% in Fulton, 85% in Dekalb, 60% in Chatham, etc.



Again, the raw vote totals here aren't exactly important - the margins are what matter. In the above raw totals, I simply assumed that for every vote Abrams gained through turnout, Kemp lost 1 via depressed GOP turnout (I think this is an acceptable method, given that Abrams is focused on turnout rather than persuasion). Nevertheless, you could model this with identical GOP 2014 totals paired against an all-turnout Democratic effort, a modest Democratic increase in turnout and substantial metro R-to-D defections, or depressed GOP turnout coupled with Democratic enthusiasm being through the roof (or any combination). However, my formula's primary focus is built on margins, not raw vote; there's multiple ways to express the latter, but only one way to express the former.

Nevertheless, the important thing to remember is that every single one of these green counties was projected to be better - substantially in most cases - for Abrams than for Carter, and that still only gets her 75% of the way to a majority in a segment of the state that is 75% of its population, and is much more friendly to her than the remainder.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ This, I believe, is why Abrams herself is - as the AJC put it - "making a beeline for GOP territory" (including some very hostile turf). Let the field organizers and volunteers hammer away at the urban clusters - it's needed - but without serious gains elsewhere, it's a plurality instead of a majority. It's also probably why places like Dalton and Rome are suddenly getting paid staff in them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because she can make the government work for all, not for the few.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I love how bronz is implying there aren't whites in Atlanta. Or that there aren't blacks in Georgia outside Atlanta for that matter.

[Adam Griffin]

I love how bronz is implying there are whites in Atlanta. Or blacks in Georgia outside Atlanta for that matter.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I love how bronz is implying there are whites in Atlanta. Or blacks in Georgia outside Atlanta for that matter.

Stupid autocorrect. Example of how it changed the meaning to the exact opposite.

Edited. Also added some clarifying language to the second sentence.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Can you not bronz

[Technocracy Timmy]

They’re a self hating white (e.g. BRTD)

[IceSpear]

They’re a self hating white (e.g. BRTD)

I don't think BRTDs exist in Georgia.

[pops]

They are bronz

[Technocracy Timmy]

They’re a self hating white (e.g. BRTD)

I don't think BRTDs exist in Georgia.

White Christian hipsters who brag about how diverse their living situations are?

There’s probably plenty of those types in Atlanta.

[Rookie Yinzer]

They’re a self hating white (e.g. BRTD)

I don't think BRTDs exist in Georgia.

White Christian hipsters who brag about how diverse their living situations are?

There’s probably plenty of those types in Atlanta.

Correct. I deal with them daily.

[libertpaulian]

A white person struggling with their healthcare or job situation, perhaps?

[IceSpear]

A white person struggling with their healthcare or job situation, perhaps?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=54&year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=0

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Because liberals tend to value diversity and not be racist?

[Progressive Pessimist]

When I just read the headline, I knew this was a Bronz post.

Maybe because she has better policies to benefit everyone?

Are you sure about that? She's Atlanta-centric. What will she do for rural voters? What will Kemp or Abrams do for Georgia?

Raise the minimum wage, fight special interests in politics, invest in education and infrastructure, expand healthcare, protect civil rights and promote common-sense gun laws. Kemp will be a puppet of his donors, not expand medical care, and pursue a far-right agenda. Sure, if you're hard right, he's your man.

Can she do that with a GOP-controlled State Legislature? Will she be railroaded like Obama?

So if she's going to be obstructed by a Republican state government, why are you so worried about her only representing urban areas at the expense of everywhere else?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Finally bronz asks a good question.

[DINGO Joe]

Because she's the better candidate to be Governor of Georgia.