Yes, I know, Lief is going to get really hot and bothered about this article. So be it. The problem is that Silver is using multiple ingredients for his prognostications, rather than just data, just like ordinary mortals do without black boxes. And he seems quite likely to have been wrong. The establishment has proved surprisingly toothless, at least so far. Sure, in the end, events may salvage Silver, but for the moment, he's just been wrong, just like to pick somebody at random, a forumite here who goes by the screen name "Torie." Even the best of us can be wrong, so be merciful please, with malice towards none, and charity for all. Thank you.
Nate has never said Trump won't be the nominee. He has said to be cautious about simply believing early polls at face value. His model runs have predicted non-trivial chances that Trump will be the nominee. So what do you mean when you say he's "wrong"? That he thought something was unlikely which now appears more likely than it once was? Because anybody could have told you that would happen. There were what 17 some candidates in the race? They were all unlikely statistically according to his models. Obviously some of them would become individually more likely as people dropped out of the race. Moreover, the "frontrunner" if there is one, becomes more likely to win as the primaries draw nearer and the polls become more accurate historically.
Yes he's "wrong" in that someone who was once unlikely is going to be the nominee. If that was Fiorina or Kasich or something you probably wouldn't care. But because he had to talk about Trump so much it gives the appearance, I guess, that he didn't know what he was talking about. :shrugs:
Sure, he may get a lot of unfair criticism, but on the flipside: When he's right, he is lauded as a genius, even when his statistical modeling barely differs from a simple polling average.
It's irrelevant though. He doesn't ask to be lauded and doesn't seem to really care as far as I can tell. Criticism should be dolled out on the merits, not to balance the scales.
Glad that people are finally calling out this discredited fraud. Saw him on MSNBC last week talking about TRUMP. He was sweating LIKE A DOG.
I saw that MSNBC appearance too and he literally was not sweating. He was calm and collected the entire time and even admitted it now seems like things may be swinging towards Trump since the establishment is (apparently) not going to fight him, opting to fight Cruz instead. I have never seen anyone call him a "fraud" except you.
