We'd be likely to face a recession which I think would hurt Trump nearly as badly as Covid did. WI would be a coin toss but for the sake of this scenario I'll give it to Biden. NV would go to Biden by FL Bush 2000 margins leading to a court challenge where they'd side with Trump. We'd see a more popular 1/6 as his "stolen election" valor would have more credence, although like OTL it wouldn't be successful. "Stack the courts" would no longer be a fringe movement and if they campaign on that and Dobbs still happens, I think it'll hurt the Dems about as much as Dobbs hurt the GOP leading to the anticipated red wave. Biden might take the midterm results as a wake-up call but maybe not which could lead to more funding in swing states although that's not clear. Other than that things largely remain the same.
