2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

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https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1746492998072877430


Sam Wang on twitter posted some analysis of how fair the proposed maps are. I would expect the court to choose maps that still have a slight GOP tilt but winnable for dems in a good year.

Yeh, to absolutely no one's surprise, the map proposed by republicans in the legislature is absolutely laughable compared to every other proposal, and by a mile.

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https://twitter.com/lawrencegandrea/status/1747407426016465259?t=6DQrZ7d3_vlmFeu...

Here it comes...

Sounds like there was a line in the legislative maps ruling that stated that the least change metric that the prior court stated would be a guideline for deciding the current maps was incorrect and that will be the precedent that the petitioners are planning on using in this case.

Absolutely fantastic news. "Least change" metric was always an incredibly bulls*** legal move invented out of whole cloth by the former republican majority on the court to give their blessing to continued GOP gerrymandering, as obviously doing next to nothing to viciously gerrymandered maps would continuously keep producing.....viciously gerrymandered maps.

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Evers to veto maps passed by Assembly which were basically his map with some tweaks that mostly benefited the GOP.

https://twitter.com/GovEvers/status/1750264673893499325

I'm assuming republicans lack the votes to override Evers' veto?

[Yoda]

I gotta say, reading the republicans in the legislature throw temper tantrums over no longer having maps drawn not only to specifically benefit their party, but certain individuals withing their party, is cynicism almost beyond anything I have ever seen before. Even for republicans it's just wild. One of the quotes from one of the Senate or House leaders, I forget which, was the most hypocritical thing I had ever read. "The democrat judges are going to create gerrymandered maps to benefit their party, illegally taking the authority away from the legislature (paraphrasing)." LMAO.....like, for one, no, that is NOT what the court is doing. They are picking the most fair maps possible, not maps that simply gerrymander in favor of democrats instead of republicans. Democrats will have a thin, bare bones majority at best under the most favorable maps to them. Two, what you're accusing them of doing is exactly what YOU have done for the past 12 years. A lot of Wisconsin republican pols' careers can't end soon enough. It's past time for a legitimate legislature fairly elected by the people, not created behind closed doors where politicians pick their own voters, to choose their government. Can't wait until after 2026 where WI democrats will finally have a chance to dismantle the Walker legacy.

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So are we getting a recommendation from the consultants today?

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Won’t draw their own maps unless ordered to.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1753227714352259301?s=46

So is this a recommendation for the Dem maps?

Sounds to me like the consultants essentially said, "GOP maps are wack AF, don't consider them. The four maps submitted by various democrats (I'm assuming plaintiffs, Gov. Evers, WI legislature dems and....who am I missing here? Help me out guys) are all acceptable and basically the same, so take your pick, idc which." Definitely sounds like they had no interest in splitting hairs in their report.

Great news. Expected, as the republican maps were, of course, entirely unserious, but great news nonetheless. Gerrymandering is defeated in one state's legislature. Democracy scored a blow today.

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Very last line on page 11 of the report has a nice reference.

EDIT: If it helps anyone, the real "meat" of the analysis of the maps, IMO, starts on page 15.

Further Edit: OOF. When the report gets into the nitty gritty details of how badly the current maps and the proposed republican legislature maps are with respect to the metrics they judge the maps by, it's quite glaring. The Majoritarian Concordance metric shows how insanely biased the republican maps are.

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Yeh I don't see why Evers would veto his own maps, especially after the report essentially praised his maps and doing so would bring an end to this whole fight(as far as the state legislature is concerned, anyways).

I'll believe it when I see it though. Republicans have to see that they're going to lose now, it's only a matter of which map proposed by a democratic interest group is picked by the Court (I highly doubt they draw their own after that report essentially said, "pick one of these four"), but I have a really hard time seeing WI republicans not acting like children and voting for a democratic map on their own and settling this issue like adults.

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So what is the timeline for action from the Governor? How long does he have to decide whether to sign the maps into law or let the WI Supremes draw their own map?

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What about the federal house map?

This suit and ruling has zero connections to or relevance for the Congressional plan. They are two separate things.

That said, Elias's team is making motions against the congressional plan directly at the State Supreme Court, with the aim of getting a new congressional plan for 2024 onwards. That was reported last month, updates have yet to appear.

What I'm worried about is the speed with which the WI Supreme Court would have to move to get new maps in time for November. I think I read somewhere that WI needs new lines in place by sometime in March for candidate filing deadlines. They'd have to rule the current maps a gerrymander in very short order (the easier part) and then, assuming they hired experts to evaluate proposals again, select a new map or draw their own.

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https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1760711933982875760

Uggghhhh:

Evers' request is the latest development in the congressional map inquiry as Democrats face a tight deadline to put new maps in place with under nine months until the November election. The court has not publicly indicated it will review the motion, and the Wisconsin Elections Commission has said that any new maps must be in place by March 15 to take effect for 2024.

A whopping 22 days to get the whole process done :/

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1760711933982875760

Uggghhhh:

Evers' request is the latest development in the congressional map inquiry as Democrats face a tight deadline to put new maps in place with under nine months until the November election. The court has not publicly indicated it will review the motion, and the Wisconsin Elections Commission has said that any new maps must be in place by March 15 to take effect for 2024.

A whopping 22 days to get the whole process done :/

I'll take later over the status quo.

That said, hopefully New York's new maps more than make up for it.

Obviously, but the issue is that control of the House is considered a tossup right now, and if trump gets a trifecta we may lose our democracy, so every single seat is crucial.

And NY democrats have shown once again, predictably, that they are possibly the most inept democratic party with a majority in the country.