election-atlas.ca

[the506]

Pretty much, urban Anglophone and Francophone is Tory under 50%, while rural Anglophone is 50%+ Tory.  I've often wondered though why Anglophones in New Brunswick are so much more conservative than in other Atlantic Provinces. 

Different cultures. The rest of the Maritimes is mostly Scottish/Irish and Catholic, southern NB is WASPy, more along the lines of southern Ontario. I've always thought Anglo NB has more in common with northern Maine than the rest of the Maritimes.

[mileslunn]

Pretty much, urban Anglophone and Francophone is Tory under 50%, while rural Anglophone is 50%+ Tory.  I've often wondered though why Anglophones in New Brunswick are so much more conservative than in other Atlantic Provinces. 

Different cultures. The rest of the Maritimes is mostly Scottish/Irish and Catholic, southern NB is WASPy, more along the lines of southern Ontario. I've always thought Anglo NB has more in common with northern Maine than the rest of the Maritimes.

While generally true, the South Shore is fairly WASPy yet it was much more competitive.  The only difference is it has a large number of those of German ancestry although Southwestern Ontario, Prairies, BC Interior, and Fraser Valley have large numbers of those groups yet those are for the most part Conservative strongholds.  On the other hand the panhandle of Nova Scotia and Pictou County I believe are mostly Scottish yet vote heavily Conservative while rural Newfoundland is mostly WASP.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've completed the map, save Quebec which Miles still has to send me. I took the liberty of also doing the NWT

For those who are interested, here are the 6 NWT regions results:

Region 1 (Beaufort-Delta / Inuvik)
Cons: 43.37%
NDP: 36.65%
Lib: 17.72%
Grn: 1.71%
Other: 0.55%

Region 2 (Sahtu)
Cons: 36.78%
NDP: 35.24%
Lib: 23.78%
Grn: 3.64%
Other: 0.56%

Region 3 (Monfwi / T'Licho)
Lib: 58.21% <- Only CD west of Ontario to go Liberal
NDP: 21.04%
Cons: 18.66%
Grn: 0.90%
Other: 1.19%

Region 4 (Deh Cho)
NDP: 50.86%
Lib: 23.61%
Cons: 22.80%
Grn: 1.42%
Other: 1.32%

Region 5 (South Slave)
NDP: 50.28%
Cons: 36.19%
Lib: 9.41%
Grn: 3.50%
Other: 0.63%

Region 6 (North Slave)
NDP: 50.36%
Cons: 29.43%
Lib: 16.43%
Grn: 3.42%
Other: 0.35%

[DC Al Fine]

Pretty much, urban Anglophone and Francophone is Tory under 50%, while rural Anglophone is 50%+ Tory.  I've often wondered though why Anglophones in New Brunswick are so much more conservative than in other Atlantic Provinces. 

Different cultures. The rest of the Maritimes is mostly Scottish/Irish and Catholic, southern NB is WASPy, more along the lines of southern Ontario. I've always thought Anglo NB has more in common with northern Maine than the rest of the Maritimes.

While generally true, the South Shore is fairly WASPy yet it was much more competitive.  The only difference is it has a large number of those of German ancestry although Southwestern Ontario, Prairies, BC Interior, and Fraser Valley have large numbers of those groups yet those are for the most part Conservative strongholds.  On the other hand the panhandle of Nova Scotia and Pictou County I believe are mostly Scottish yet vote heavily Conservative while rural Newfoundland is mostly WASP.

If you are looking at the federal results, the South Shore is more conservative than it looks. South Shore-Saint Margaret's is competitive largely because a bunch of Halifax exurbs were tacked onto the riding in the 2003 redistribution. The NDP won that area about 45%-32% in 2011.

[Hatman 🍁]

The South Shore is a bellwether region. For example, Queens went NDP in 2008 and in the last provincial election, I believe.

[mileslunn]

Here is Western Canada by subdivision



Alberta the Tories won all subdivisions and was also the only province where they got over 80% in a few.  Below is a US style Alberta one and there they only got under 50% in one which in Division 15 and much of the population lives in Banff and Jasper which are tourist locations with major ski resorts



Asides from the West Kootenays where you have a large Draft Dodger community as well as the pacifist Doukhobors, you seem to have a Coast vs. Interior although the Tories won several coastal regional districts including GVRD.  Now if over 50%, it was largely confined to the interior.



Manitoba on an area basis went mostly NDP, but the Tories won in the more populated south as opposed to the more sparsely populated north as shown below.  It seems the NDP generally won in areas where aboriginals were the majority.



If over 50%, not much difference other than the Tories only won a plurality in Division 11 which is where Winnipeg is located.



In Saskatchewan the Tories won all but won division, although in that division it was 62 vs. 26% in favour of the NDP.  Off course that division is overwhelmingly aboriginal



The Tories got under 50% in the subdivisions that include Saskatoon and Regina, but besides that they got over 50% in pretty much every Rural Saskatchewan subdivision and in many cases over 2/3, although none were over 80%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Miles sent me the Quebec data. Here is the national map:




I had to make some adjustments to follow the 2011 census boundaries which are slightly different than Quebec's MRC boundaries.

[the506]

Latest update: 2012 federal by-elections:

Toronto-Danforth: http://election-atlas.ca/fed/308/35094.php?e=2012
Durham: http://election-atlas.ca/fed/308/35014.php?e=2012
Calgary Centre: http://election-atlas.ca/fed/308/48006.php?e=2012
Victoria: http://election-atlas.ca/fed/308/59035.php?e=2012

[mileslunn]

I was able to put together the numbers of the last BC election using the federal boundaries.  I excluded the advanced polls and absentee ballots as it was tough to allocate them properly especially considering some only had a few polls in a given riding.  As such the NDP may have won Kootenay-Columbia and Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission in 2009 (both went Liberal for sure in 2013) while Vancouver Island North might have gone NDP in 2013 (it definitely went NDP in 2009).  In Kootenay-Columbia in 2009 the BC Liberals won by 2 votes if you exclude the advanced and absentee where the NDP tends to do better usually.  In 2013, the BC Liberals won Vancouver Island North by 8 votes also excluding advanced polls and absentee ballots

                                                                       2009                  2013
                                                                       LIB      NDP         LIB       NDP     GRN    CON
Abbotsford                                                       59.2%  27.6%     49.5%  22.8%  3.4%   5.6%
British Columbia Southern Interior                     29.4%  53.0%     31.6%  51.9%   8.6%  2.7%
Burnaby-Douglas                                             48.0%  45.3%     45.1%   43.6%   7.8%  0.0%*
Burnaby-New Westminster                                39.3%  52.4%     38.7%  49.0%   8.3%  1.5%
Cariboo-Prince George                                      50.1%  42.8%     49.9%  29.5%   2.4%  3.3%
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon                                  48.2%  34.0%     48.1%  34.0%   4.8%  10.9%
Delta-Richmond East                                        48.7%  21.5%     43.3%  22.6%   3.3%   4.4%
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca                                    33.7%  55.4%     30.3%  50.9%   17.6% 0.7%
Fleetwood-Port Kells                                        47.4%   45.5%     49.5%  39.8%    2.8%  6.6%
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo                           49.9%   41.0%     55.0%  36.1%   1.0%   6.0%
Kelowna-Lake Country                                     52.3%   27.1%      56.5% 26.2%   3.0%   11.9%
Kootenay-Columbia                                          44.3%  44.3%      49.6%  41.7%   4.2%   3.4%
Langley                                                          59.3%  33.0%       53.8%   26.2%  8.4%  10.4%
Nanaimo-Alberni                                              43.2% 47.1%        44.7%  42.9%  2.1%  10.1%
Nanaimo-Cowichan                                         34.6%   52.3%      32.6%   44.1%  16.0%  5.3%
Newton-North Delta                                        37.6%  55.9%       44.3%   46.3%  4.3%    3.9%
New Westminster-Coquitlam                            43.5%  48.2%       42.9%  46.2%   8.7%   1.0%
North Vancouver                                             56.8%  29.0%      52.2%   33.4%  6.7%    4.2%
Okanagan-Coquihalla                                      47.5%   32.0%      49.9%   36.7%  1.5%   9.0%
Okanagan-Shuswap                                        42.4%   31.2%      47.6%   31.7%   7.8%  12.3%
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission                    46.2%  45.7%       45.6%  40.4%   8.8%   3.4%
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam              49.0%   44.0%      44.9%   44.0%  3.4%    5.4%
Prince George-Peace River                               53.6%  27.8%       55.5%  20.8%   0.9%  11.9%
Richmond                                                       62.1%  27.6%      52.6%   24.0%   7.9%  7.9%
Saanich-Gulf Islands                                       44.1%  45.9%       33.0%  36.5%   28.5% 0.9%
Skeena-Bulkley Valley                                     41.3%  50.1%      41.0%   46.5%   4.0%   5.6%
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale                63.2%  27.7%       60.5%  27.0%   3.6%   7.5%
Surrey North                                                  26.7%  66.6%       32.5%  58.2%   1.7%   5.9%
Vancouver Centre                                           42.9%  44.3%       39.2%  48.0%   10.7%  0.0%
Vancouver East                                              28.1%  58.3%       25.5%  60.5%   11.7%  0.0%
Vancouver Island North                                   43.9% 46.7%        43.6%  43.6%  6.6%    6.1%
Vancouver-Kingsway                                      41.1%  51.4%        39.1%  51.8%  8.0%   0.9%
Vancouver-Quadra                                         61.2%  30.1%        54.5%  36.0%  6.8%    0.9%
Vancouver South                                            51.7%  42.9%        48.4% 42.5%  5.5%   3.4%
Victoria                                                          31.3%  53.0%       20.8%  44.2%  34.2%  0.5%
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-                    47.3%  38.2%        45.5%  41.3%  9.8%   1.9%
Sea to Sky Country

Interestingly enough the BC Liberals picked up federal ridings and lost none.  Kootenay-Columbia and Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission definitely went BC Liberal in 2013, while 2009 it could have gone either way depending on advanced polls and absentee ballots.  Nanaimo-Alberni was definitely a BC Liberal pick up while Vancouver Island North is a possible pickup.  Interestingly enough, it looks like all ridings that went Conservative federally (save perhaps Vancouver Island North) went BC Liberal provincially while the NDP won both times 11 of the 12 they won federally.  Burnaby-Douglas was the exception as it went BC Liberal despite going NDP federally.  Of the two federal Liberal ridings, they were split with Vancouver Centre going NDP and Vancouver-Quadra going Liberal although Vancouver Centre was far more competitive than Vancouver-Quadra which was one of the strongest BC Liberal ridings.  Saanich-Gulf Islands went NDP both times and it was the strongest in 2013 for the Green Party provincially although Victoria was stronger.

[the506]

Ontario is now up!

http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/

Right now there are poll maps going back to 2003.


Next up for me is Nova Scotia, and their damned PDF files that are completely incapable of being pasted into Excel in any sort of readable manner.

[DC Al Fine]

Elections Nova Scotia is a dick.

[Hash]

Haha, I didn't remember that the Green candidate in the provincial election in my riding was in one of my classes. Needless to say, she was the hippie girl who dressed like one and felt the need to speak out every two minutes about how something was horrible.

Awesome maps btw. I can't wait for Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario is now up!

http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/

Right now there are poll maps going back to 2003.


Next up for me is Nova Scotia, and their damned PDF files that are completely incapable of being pasted into Excel in any sort of readable manner.

Any chance I could get a copy of the excel sheets for Inverness, Antigonish, Yarmouth, Glace Bay, Cumberland South and Cape Breton North (for 2009, obviously)? Elections NS didn't do the 2009 transposition for those ridings, using the most recent by-elections instead. If I could have the excel sheets, it would mean I could take a stab at doing it instead.

[Smid]

Yeah, you need to paste the data into Excel, then "text to column" it, using spaces as the delineator. Problem is, that breaks up riding names, so you have to go and fix all of those up. Still marginally faster than straight data entry. If you need a hand (ie, someone to contribute man hours, let me know and I'll see what I can squeeze in...).

[Krago]

Ask, and ye shall receive:

• Nova Scotia 2009 Results by polling division
  
• Nova Scotia 2009 Results map overlaid by new ED boundaries - Metro Halifax

[Smid]

Ask, and ye shall receive:

• Nova Scotia 2009 Results by polling division
  
• Nova Scotia 2009 Results map overlaid by new ED boundaries - Metro Halifax

Krago is awesome. End of story.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ask, and ye shall receive:

• Nova Scotia 2009 Results by polling division
  
• Nova Scotia 2009 Results map overlaid by new ED boundaries - Metro Halifax

[the506]

Here's a somewhat uninteresting Labrador by-election map:

http://election-atlas.ca/fed/308/10004.php?e=2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Nothing unexpected. NDP collapse in the west is obvious, but they still hung on to 2 polls in Labrador City. The Tories winning a poll on the east coast is interesting too, since they hadn't won it last time. You can't blame turnout either, since it went up.

[Qavvavak]

But NDP doing well in Nunatsiavut (Inuit region) they are 8+ to 25% from 17% in 2011.
And here 4 regions

Labrador West LIB 50% (+20), NDP 34% (-4), CON 16% (-15), Libt 0.4% (turnout 49% = +2)
Nitassinan CON 95% (+2), LIB 4% (-1), NDP 0.8% (-0.9), Libt 0.1% (turnout 66% = +4)
Nunatsiavut LIB 51% (+12), NDP 25% (+8), CON 24% (-20), Libt 0.4% (turnout 60% = +8)
NunatuKavut LIB 52% (+12), CON 35% (-13), NDP 13% (same), Libt 0.5% (turnout 64% = +10)

[Hatman 🍁]

Never heard of Nitassinan or Nunatukavut. I assume Nitassinan is the two Innu communities?

[Qavvavak]

yeah nitassinan is two Innu rez in labrador and also in quebec.
NunatuKavut is south labrador where Inuit-Metis or Labrador Metis

[Hatman 🍁]

yeah nitassinan is two Innu rez in labrador and also in quebec.
NunatuKavut is south labrador where Inuit-Metis or Labrador Metis

Does that include HVGB and the south coast? or did you omit those areas?

[Linus Van Pelt]

In the Ontario provincial maps, a swing towards the Liberals between 2007 and 2011 is noticeable in some higher income/education areas of inner Toronto and Ottawa, even as a swing against them is noticeable pretty much everywhere else.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes. This due in part to the NDP running a more populist campaign which scared some of the more libertarian-lefties in those cities. Not to mention the Liberal fear tactics claiming that they were the only hope to defeat the Tories in Liberal-NDP ridings. How this got them "educated" voters is beyond me.