Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I recall some Virginia insider in the know was predicting a Northam landslide in the early morning based on turnout, then by the afternoon was saying things were neck in neck. I never trust what these people say. Just find out when the votes are counted.

I tend to hold the same opinion, but Ralston is the exception that proves the rule. I don't think he has got a call wrong in recent history, and he is trying to project a swing state with a history of horrible polling. If there is ever a guru, its him.

Is Ralston predicting a Rosen win?

[Doimper]

I recall some Virginia insider in the know was predicting a Northam landslide in the early morning based on turnout, then by the afternoon was saying things were neck in neck. I never trust what these people say. Just find out when the votes are counted.

I tend to hold the same opinion, but Ralston is the exception that proves the rule. I don't think he has got a call wrong in recent history, and he is trying to project a swing state with a history of horrible polling. If there is ever a guru, its him.

Is Ralston predicting a Rosen win?

He's not projecting anything, as far as I know.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I recall some Virginia insider in the know was predicting a Northam landslide in the early morning based on turnout, then by the afternoon was saying things were neck in neck. I never trust what these people say. Just find out when the votes are counted.

I tend to hold the same opinion, but Ralston is the exception that proves the rule. I don't think he has got a call wrong in recent history, and he is trying to project a swing state with a history of horrible polling. If there is ever a guru, its him.

Is Ralston predicting a Rosen win?

He's not projecting anything, as far as I know.

Projecting and predicting are two different things.

[Gass3268]

Democrats win the Washoe early vote (again) by 45 votes.

However, mail-in/absentees cut into that and then some yet again. The GOP ultimately take the combined Washoe in-person/mail by a 3038-2949 margin, with 1460 NPA.

That means a roughly 40.7-39.6 GOP day. Not great, but I'm pretty sure it is better than yesterday and it's still close in Washoe.

Much better than yesterday, since they lost the combined vote in Washoe by 500-600.

Every day that Washoe is even close to a tie makes me feel good. I would have thought the Republicans would have taken control there by now.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The fact that Washoe is essentially a tie and Dems are starting to win Clark consistently by 10% bodes well

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, when are we getting today's Clark numbers?

[Gass3268]

So, when are we getting today's Clark numbers?

Ralston posted them at 1:53 AM ET yesterday.

[Xing]

The NV SOS page hasn't updated any other counties for today. Looks like we'll have to wait for a while before we get anything other than Washoe.

[Xing]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

[Gass3268]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

There we go

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

God I hope so. It's still a long way to 35K.

[UncleSam]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

God I hope so. It's still a long way to 35K.

Am I missing something? Their firewall is at ~3.5k statewide, not 18k? Wasn't their firewall at ~50k statewide in 2016 after EV?

[ON Progressive]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

God I hope so. It's still a long way to 35K.

Am I missing something? Their firewall is at ~3.5k statewide, not 18k? Wasn't their firewall at ~50k statewide in 2016 after EV?

You shouldn't compare 2016 EV to midterm EV. In any case, he was talking about the Clark firewall, which is currently at 18k.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

God I hope so. It's still a long way to 35K.

Am I missing something? Their firewall is at ~3.5k statewide, not 18k? Wasn't their firewall at ~50k statewide in 2016 after EV?

You shouldn't compare 2016 EV to midterm EV. In any case, he was talking about the Clark firewall, which is currently at 18k.

[Gass3268]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

God I hope so. It's still a long way to 35K.

Early voting lasts until 11/2, so 7 days. If Democrats can keep the current pace of at least winning the county by 2,000 votes they would have a lead of 32,000 by election day. Now if they can get a crooked number tomorrow and increase their margins for the last 6 days, which historically tend to happen, 35,000 is totally possible.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

God I hope so. It's still a long way to 35K.

Early voting lasts until 11/2, so 7 days. If Democrats can keep the current pace of at least winning the county by 2,000 votes they would have a lead of 32,000 by election day. Now if they can get a crooked number tomorrow and increase their margins for the last 6 days, which historically tend to happen, 35,000 is totally possible.

So the possibility of Rosen winning the election by at least 5 points is highly possible?

[junior chįmp]

People need to quit freaking out about the Early Vote. Have faith in the fundamentals, national enviorment, and special election results not noise like this.

Yeah, it doesn't make sense to me that the rurals would be asleep for the last 1-2 years of specials and the 2017 election yet all of a sudden when it counts, the rurals wake up and the Dems that were angry just fall off.

Im getting a real kick out of idiot clown journo pundits writing articles on this: Trump's midterm campaign strategy may be exactly what Republicans need to hold Congress

Nevermind the inconvinient truth that political campaigns, commercials, slogans, canvassing, etc etc...are a complete waste of time and do nothing to change the destined outcome of an election (as determined by the national enviorment and fundamentals):

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Its over for the GOP. There's nothing they can do to turn back the tide. Frankly, its been over for awhile now and all this frittering over early vote numbers and polling noise and Kavanaugh Bump nonsense is dumb. This whole election is nothing but a referendum on Trump and thats it.

[Virginiá]

Its over for the GOP. There's nothing they can do to turn back the tide. Frankly, its been over for awhile now and all this frittering over early vote numbers and polling noise and Kavanaugh Bump nonsense is dumb. This whole election is nothing but a referendum on Trump and thats it.

I would like to know exactly what is causing this huge turnout. I can guess pretty easily what it is with Democrats (duh), but what about Republicans? What exactly is driving them to show up in force for a man like Trump? What series of events caused that? Because this doesn't seem normal for an unpopular president's party. Not that I think it will blunt the wave or anything - Democrats are hugely enthused and indies seem set to break savagely against the GOP, but still. I'd have expected Republican turnout to backslide a smidgen at least. I haven't kept up with all the data, but it seems in some places that isn't the case (ftr I think the GOP is currently running behind their 2014 numbers in FL, at least according to a graph I just saw earlier).

All I know is that if we have the highest turnout for a midterm in 50 - 100 years, it is definitely worth analyzing the crap out of.

[NOVA Green]

OREGON UPDATE--- 10/26/18 EARLY VOTES BY MAIL

So massive dump of Mail In ballots since my last post Yesterday....

Currently we now have 13.3% of TOTAL Ballots returned in Oregon, and Democrats hold a + 50k Vote lead over Republicans...



DEM's currently hold a + 3.6% DEM Voter Turnout Advantage in Oregon when looking at the Total number of Registered DEMs / TOTAL number of REG DEM ballots returned vs RV REP / TOTAL REP Ballots returned...

Now let's look at the Turnout Advantage to Date by County in a Binary DEM vs REP scenario...



These numbers don't tell the entire story that I'm looking at, but regardless Early VbM numbers are looking extremely favorable for Democrats in Oregon, (Although is not necessarily an indicator of the OR-GOV Election Results)...

[SNJ1985]

I would like to know exactly what is causing this huge turnout. I can guess pretty easily what it is with Democrats (duh), but what about Republicans? What exactly is driving them to show up in force for a man like Trump? What series of events caused that? Because this doesn't seem normal for an unpopular president's party.

What makes you so sure that it's ''for Trump'' as opposed to ''against the left''?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Its over for the GOP. There's nothing they can do to turn back the tide. Frankly, its been over for awhile now and all this frittering over early vote numbers and polling noise and Kavanaugh Bump nonsense is dumb. This whole election is nothing but a referendum on Trump and thats it.

I would like to know exactly what is causing this huge turnout. I can guess pretty easily what it is with Democrats (duh), but what about Republicans? What exactly is driving them to show up in force for a man like Trump? What series of events caused that? Because this doesn't seem normal for an unpopular president's party. Not that I think it will blunt the wave or anything - Democrats are hugely enthused and indies seem set to break savagely against the GOP, but still. I'd have expected Republican turnout to backslide a smidgen at least. I haven't kept up with all the data, but it seems in some places that isn't the case (ftr I think the GOP is currently running behind their 2014 numbers in FL, at least according to a graph I just saw earlier).

All I know is that if we have the highest turnout for a midterm in 50 - 100 years, it is definitely worth analyzing the crap out of.

The best answer at this point is summed up by the fact Trump is both massively unpopular but has the highest approval rating in the Republican Party since Reagan

[Xing]

Rural turnout looks to have dropped considerably today. As a result, Democrats gained to their statewide lead. While Carson City it yet to report (and a few rural counties still haven't reported from Thursday), so Republican may gain a couple hundred more votes when everything is in, Democrats are up about 4.7K statewide, and 18K in Clark.

[Tender Branson]

Prof. McDonald and the surge in early voting so far has been mentioned in Austrian newspapers today:

https://diepresse.com/home/ausland/aussenpolitik/5520157/Beteiligung-an-USKongresswahlen-ungewoehnlich-hoch

"Early voting turnout surprisingly high so far."

"Could hit the record of 49% from 1964."

---

All of this is relative IMO though: it is not really high in an international context: It was just abysmal in previous midterms and is now rising to an acceptable, but still low level of 45-50%.

I always take a good laugh when you Americans refer to 40-50% turnouts as "huge" ...

75-90% is "huge".

[Tender Branson]

In fact:

Because Americans are so lazy voters, it could even be debated if the GOP-controlled Congress or Trump have a real legitimacy or mandate from the US voters when elected.

Out of 240 million adult Americans, only a quarter elected Trump President (60 Mio. votes) and the GOP only got 40 million votes (or 1/6th of all American adults). 3 in 4 adult Americans did not vote for Trump in 2016 and 5 in 6 adult Americans did not vote for the GOP in 2014.