I am from the future. Joe Biden wins in 2024 by more than in 2020. What happened?

[Alben Barkley]

The thread title says it all. I have traveled back in time from January 2025 and am here to tell you Joe Biden won everything he won in 2020 plus North Carolina, Florida, and Texas, and made it VERY close in South Carolina.

How and why do you think this happened?

Remember that many people were writing Biden's political obituary in early 2020 before Biden crushed it in SC and Super Tuesday, largely defying even the most optimistic polls for him, so it's not like it's just Trump who has seen himself do better than the polls would predict before...

[MarkD]

A major recession hits the country, lasting from now for about one whole year. But the Federal Reserve behaves responsibly by not lowering interest rates; they keep a tight clamp on money supply, and consequently, because of the joint events of the recession and the Fed maintaining discipline, inflation pretty much completely disappears, and prices stabilize. The economy is humming along quite nicely by Sept-Oct 2024, so Biden's approvals go up to above sea level.
The GOP looks as crazy as it has been for the last six years, so even though most voters still, in general, don't like politicians of either stripe (as usual), the Dems look better than the GOP, and so Biden pulls in not only the same 25 states he won in 2020, but the three states you mentioned, and Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska too.

[LostInOhio]

Neither Trump nor DeSantis runs, and Marjorie Taylor Greene is the nominee. Both inflation and gas prices are down and the general consensus among Democrats and independents is that the Biden admin directly helped with that in some way. Finally, some “rally around the flag” event occurs, or there is a foreign crisis that Biden handles well - maybe Biden or Harris personally negotiate Russia’s withdraw from Ukraine in mid-2024, and Zelensky directly credits them for it. Biden’s approval rating is 58% on Election Day.

However, not even this is enough for Biden to flip Florida. The Greene/Gates ticket wins it by a hair

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH is a swing state we have yet to see an OH Senate poll but is Ryan going to be completetive, yes, and we have OH, MT and WVA up and if it's a 53/47 S or 51/49 S we must hold a combo of those states to hold the S, which is gonna be tough. We already have the 303 map S but holding the S in 24 is gonna be tough. But, it's 80% turnout in Prez Elections

That's why Biden wants this UKRAINE WAR to end so we can start Nordstrom 2 and get gas prices down again, but Putin wants UKRAINE, but he has closed up Pipelines in ANWR

I know people that said they're gonna sit out the Midterms and vote for Prez but we are nowhere at 92M in 2010/2014 levels we're at 65/60M levels and Prez it's 80/75M levels VBM

That's why it's a 303 map not a 225 map because we are expecting 110/150M or 120 votes in 2010 it was 92M

But, of course OH Leans R until we see a poll and it will be Lean R in 24 Tester and Manchin have better odds of holding on than Brown because WVA and MT are bluer states locally than OH is and Mandel is expected to challenge Brown in 24

We are expected to lose TX with Cruz, NC the Rs are leading in the Gov race and FL is FL

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The GOP nominates Trump again, and he melts down badly before the election and is not replaced on the ticket. Meanwhile Biden, despite his age, maintains his current level of public presence. It won't be a historical landslide, but Biden wins easily.

[Person Man]

In this climate, I would say that maybe Joe can get a 7% victory if everything breaks his way. That might mean he wins by enough to win in Texas, Florida, and North Carolina, but probably only gets within 7 or 8 in South Carolina and 3 or 4 in Ohio and Iowa though its possible that one of them votes within a few thousands of votes for Joe or not.

[Utah Neolib]

Part of me sees Trump running again, on a campaign of only vengeance for the 2020 Election. His VP is someone absolutely insane, like Marjorie Taylor Greene or Sarah Palin. A recession happens, but I’d over by Q2 2024. Inflation has gone far down from it’s peak, and gas prices are under $4. Biden’s approval at the very least makes it to 50%, and he wins.

[PSOL]

A significant amount of Republican governors and AGs die of Covid-19, causing special elections that the Democrats win handily in a few places. Donald Trump and DeSantis die from Covid as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't winning TX Beto is down 6 the same as Hegar Lost

[sg0508]

The GOP nominates Pence, and/or Trump creates such a division + the hangover effect that people are willing to let Biden possibly die in office to avoid the alternative.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I think in general it would have to be some combination of:

Economic recovery, so we see stocks go up significantly in 2024.

Favorable resolution to the Ukraine War, ideally involving the end of Putin's reign.

Republicans continuing to act utterly immoral and insane.

Significant progress on one or more social issues of particular concern to important demographic groups for the Dem constituency.  That is, Dems need to deliver on police reform, abortion or immigration in some substantial and easily-explainable way.

[Ferguson97]

The economy is good and Trump is the nominee.

[Schiff for Senate]

I believe NC/TX/FL going blue isn't that unlikely, or crazy at all. But SC being super close is extremely unlikely. It went for Trump by like 12 or 13 points in 2020. I can't see Biden making it very close in SC under any realistic circumstances.

[EastwoodS]

Nah you just smoked a lot of weed and had a good dream

[Politician]

The economy is good on Election Day

[Person Man]

The economy is good on Election Day

It probably needs to be 1996 or 2000 good for this margin, but Biden can do about as well as he did with a 2012 or 2004 economy.

[brucejoel99]

Inflation was put under control & either there was no recession or the economy was back on an upswing by Election Day, plus the GOP remained really dumb & nominated a massively polarizing figure, thus motivating significant negative voting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX won't vote D it's an unregulated Gun state and the Border is out of control we will see about FL but having Rubio on the ballot than Rick Scott bodes well for DeSantis, that's why Hillary couldn't close the gap in FL due to Rubio changing from Prez to Senate that's why Trump wanted Rubio on ballot in 16

But, I doubt we win FL EITHER, it has a Cuban Embargo

Users forget that Cuban Embargo benefits Rs in FL

[NewYorkExpress]

This scenario is actually only possible if Biden dies between now and 2024 and Kamala Harris gets a massive sympathy bump (which she would).

[izixs]

This scenario is actually only possible if Biden dies between now and 2024 and Kamala Harris gets a massive sympathy bump (which she would).

Here's a possible scenario that I hope doesn't happen:

Biden runs again, Republicans nominate either Trump or someone just as ridiculous after a primary battle that leaves the old guard of the party shut out at the RNC. However, a day after the Republican nominee talks about 'golly it would be great if I didn't have an opponent, might one of you be able to help with that?' or something similar, one of his supporters/long time Republican assassinates Biden. They are captured alive and right up until election day claim they were just trying to save America because the Republican nominee told him too. The Dems nominate Harris (or really anyone they like) at the convention after the attack and throughout the campaign show case the fixes they've made since the start of the Biden presidency while slamming the Republicans as cultivating a murder cult, warning that giving them power again risks emboldening more killers. The result isn't a repeat of '64, but election night is short and the outcome well known before the west coast closes their polls. And despite this electoral outcome, the Republican party decides to ignore the obvious lessons and continues to embrace violent extremist rhetoric in 2028.

[Mister Mets]

This would be a relatively normal development.

Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W Bush all won reelection by bigger margins than their initial election. Biden's win was narrow, so there's room for improvement.

There are many potential explanations.
1. Events- An economic recovery in 2024 is possible and would be great for Biden.
2. Candidate Trump screws up- Former President Trump could easily run a terrible campaign, or there could be some other major error (IE- a bad Vice Presidential pick from someone who had to be talked out of Christie and Gingrich.)
3. Trump sabotages the Republican nominee- If Trump doesn't seek the nomination again, or if he loses a primary, and feels insulted by the Republican nominee, he's certainly capable of saying and doing stuff that will hurt the party.
4. Major third party campaign- If there's a divisive Republican primary, a MAGA independent ticket or establishment independent ticket could split votes, and help Biden's margin.
5. Demographics after all- The country is getting less white, but it hasn't helped Democrats as much as expected. But maybe 2024 is when it all happens. A variation of this would be if a reliance on evangelical voters (which may be more about how conservative Christians identify themselves than the way this was understood pre-Trump) scares away centrists, or boosts left-wing turnout.
6. Democrats learn discipline- Given the extremes of the parties, any party that goes with the center with strong message discipline may be able to win in a landslide. I don't think Democrats will be able to thread the needle of keeping the base happy while focusing on popular issues, but it's possible.
7. Major Republican scandal- "Grab them by the pussy" didn't end the Trump campaign, but it's always possible for something big to happen. Maybe a 78 year old Trump is caught on video saying something stupid, or Ron DeSantis proves not to be teflon if he has a Rielle Hunter or Bridgegate style problem in October 2024.