UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Usual caveats about constituency polling applies, but I will admit that this is intriguing. UKIP seemingly out of the running in Grimsby, Cannock,* and even Great Yarmouth (really?), but still perhaps in which a shot - or at least a very good second - in Castle Point? If these polls are right, then they're doing much better in Essex than the rest of the country.

_{*Though I was was always sceptical about that one: they didn't lead there in the 2014 locals even.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They tried being a populist right party during the New Labour years, it didn't work then

With Hague going on about Britain being like "a foreign land" while ranting about "liberal elites", and with Howard's "Are You Thinking What We're Thinking" shtick. Hilarious.

Anyway, the Tories are fundamentally the Party of Property. Ultimately it is in their best interests to reflect whatever the values and views are of those who own it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah yes. I was about to post that. As for Mugabe, his main priority is hating the Labour Party, so I think he'll stay loyal to the Tories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not.

You mean if you ignore the occasions on when it has been volatile then it has not been volatile? Actually it is less so than it was when it was newer, but I reserve the right to be rude

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Back in 2001 Harold Pinter proudly declared that he was going to cast his vote for the Socialist Alliance,* apparently unaware that there was no SA candidate in his constituency. Of course in 1979 he voted Tory, as did many others of his ilk.

_{*The Artist Currently Performing As Left Unity.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov: Con 35, Labour 34, UKIP 12, LDem 9, Greens 5, Others 5

The change is Tories up two, UKIP down two, LibDems up one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They're polls of Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) but not Northern Ireland. The SNP make up the majority of the Others share.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

as a total outsider ignorant of British politics the meteroic rises and falls of BNP, UKIP, etc would suggest the Tories have room to move their rhetoric to the right on immigration, Euroskepticism and so on and as such constitutes failure to capture an element of the 'far right' vote.  no majority in parliament in 5 consecutive elections seems like a colossal failure of long-term strategy.

The trouble the Tories found (especially under Hague, who's rhetoric on such matters wasn't even a dog whistle) was that such messages are not particularly convincing when coming from the Conservative Party which meant that it didn't really work. And worse: the opprobrium that a party finds for playing at such politics is not reduced if they can't play at such politics successfully.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, he will be eaten alive.

It is true: Tory leaders do not survive electoral defeat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My my, but David Cameron and Nick Clegg have both spent an awful lot of the campaign down in the West Country haven't they?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eastleigh
Yeovil

Scratch these off your list; Clegg was out campaigning in Eastleigh the other day and Cameron was in Yeovil last week. Of course a Conservative gain in Yeovil would represent a swing to the left.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

GDP figures are out and they show growth shrinking down to 0.3% (down from 0.6%). This is the slowest quarterly growth for two years.

It's debatable how much influence economic statistics actually have on elections, but this is not helpful news for the government parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

TNS latest poll says: Con 34, Labour 33, UKIP 15, LDem 7, Greens 5, Others 5

Of course TNS are kind of sh!t, but such functional ties are quite common this election I understand.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It looks like the Tories are moving ahead, however slightly.

Nah, still no real sign of movement either way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you just restrict it to general election results, you may run into problems in 1931 when the Liberal National Party finished 3rd ahead of the Liberal Party (from whom they had broken away). The LNP eventually became a part of the Conservatives, though it took the better part of 30 years for the merger to go through.

There were more National Liberals than straight Liberals in 1935 as well.

And they were still demi-independent until the 1960s even if in practice they were a cross between a flag of convenience and a Conservative faction by then. As late as the 1959 election they had twenty MPs to the Liberals six.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that Ipsos-MORI have shown particularly 'extreme' results for Scotland since late last year and though this is the most 'extreme' so far, it's well within the pattern (leads of 29, 28 and now 34). Of course they might even be right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1) FX traders tend to feel that CON victory is more likely than what the polls or CW believe which is good news for CON

Why? These people have no better information than the rest of us.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a possible void election in Hull East. There's photographic evidence apparently of the postal vote ballot papers cutting off the Labour and Green candidates names.

Apparently it 'only' affected 484 ballots so that's alright or something??!?!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a useful bit of context, the difference between the Labour share of the vote in Scotland and the whole of the UK since 1945:

1945: -0.1
1950: +0.1
1951: -0.9
1955: +0.3
1959: +2.8
1964: +4.8
1966: +1.7
1970: +1.4
1974: -0.5
1974: -3.0
1979: +4.6
1983: +7.5
1987: +11.6
1992: +4.5
1997: +2.4
2001: +3.2
2005: +4.2
2010: +13.0

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My phone's caller ID and a quick Google reveal that Survation tried to call me three times today.

My heart goes out to the poor harassed citizenry of Sheffield Hallam, your good self very much included.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Everyone loves Com(edy)Res(ults) and everyone loves marginals polls, right? The seats polled were the fifty most marginal Tory seats over Labour (North Warks. to West Carms. & South Pembs.)...

Labour 40, Con 37, UKIP 11, LDem 5, Greens 5

Swing of 3.5% on 2010.

Pass the salt...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Com(edy)Res(ults) have a national poll also: Labour 35, Con 35, UKIP 11, LDem 7, Greens 6, Others 6

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mori: Con 35, Lab 30, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, Greens 8

MORI has a long established and well deserved reputation for volatility and for producing the odd poll with very curious numbers (although on occasion their final poll has been good). They're also the absolute worst for spinning; it is being reported elsewhere that they started briefing about this one before they'd even finished working on it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sheffield Hallam electoral circus latest: Ronnie O'Sullivan endorses Coppard.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That would depend on exactly who they were being delivered to, wouldn't it?