Dems in 2008: 12 Pickup Opportunities in Senate?

[JSojourner]

1) Virginia

It won't be competetive.  We will win it easily.

2) New Mexico

Very competetive.  I like Udall to win and this to be another D pickup.

3) Colorado

See my note on Virginia.

4) New Hamphshire

Democrats are calling this one another slam dunk.  I hope so.  I am not so sure.  John Sununu has the advantage of incumbency, a fairly respected name and fewer ties to the religious nutcases that held former Senator Bob Smith in thrall. I hope Shaheen wins but I wouldn't count our Sununu.  I am calling it a pure tossup.

5) Alaska

Simple.  If Stevens is the candidate, Democrats pick up this seat.  Alaska Republicans have had a terrible run of corruption and nepotism.  But they should not hang their heads.  Sarah Palin is one of the brightest lights in the state and national GOP.  Still, I look for this to be a D pickup if Stevens runs.

6) Oregon

Lean Republican and unlikely to move.  Look, Gordon Smith is a pro-stem cell guy, a decent man and one of his biggest fans is Democrat Ron Wyden.  Oregonians have a good thing going with the both of them in office and I think they know it.  Smith has been critical of Bush (though probably not critical enough).  He'll lose support this time, but probably not enough to lose the election.

7) Minnesota

People said I was crazy when I hoped Ciresi would win the primary.  I like Al Franken.  I really do.  But I really don't like entertainers in politics, in either party.  They have the right to run, but they usually make monkeys of themselves and -- by association -- the party.  I sure hate Norm Coleman's politics, so I'd love to see him gone.  But unless things get appreciably worse nationally or in Minnesota, I think it's six more years of this a-hole.

Maine

Looking less and less likely to be an Allen win.  It's not that Allen is unpopular or a bad Congressman.  His district loves him.  But Collins is also popular.  She comes from a long like of moderate Maine Republicans.  Frankly, I am terribly disappointed in her on the war.  I had hoped that both she and Olympia Snowe would join Senator Hagel in opposing it.  But she's pretty responsible on other issues -- I can't imagine Maine voters turning against her.  Her biggest worry is Allen, who is a pretty sharp guy and could make it close.

9) Mississippi (Wicker-Musgrove race)

Special election results notwithstanding, this is a safe R race.  As is the Thad Cochran race, also.

10) North Carolina

Safe R.  I know the numbers look bad for Liddy now but that's just it.  This is now.  It's a long way to November and North Carolina is still a blue state, not a purple one.

11) Texas

Safe R.  Which is a shame.  Because Cornyn is an idtiot of Inhofian proportions.

12) Nebraska

Bob Kerrey was our only chance.  Safe R.

[JSojourner]

The Udall of NM is in a competitive race, but the one in Colorado is a slam dunk?  Do you have it backwards, JS?

Nah.  The New Mexico Udall will have an opponent who is well known and well funded.  And the seat was held by a popular, beloved Republican to begin with.

The Colorado Udall will have a less known opponent.  I dunno about money.  And the seat was held by a very unpopular, ineffective Republican.

Too, if there are coattails (which I doubt), then I would suspect Colorado voters would trend a little bit more D than New Mexico voters.  Then again, you know my track record.  TSONGAS FOR PRESIDENT!