United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some Leave politicians suggesting the Article 50 not be invoked for a while... omg was this all a scam?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Losing Sheffield and other Labour strongholds up north tilted it here, if Cameron's gone Crobyn's chair shouldn't be any safer

A lot of older Labour voters in such places are very much COMMANDING HEIGHTS/THE EU IS A CAPITALIST CONSPIRACY types who voted NO in 1975 (i.e. literally Dennis Skinner) and were never going to be won round even had a big effort been made. A big effort, of course, was not made.

Plenty of rumours wrt Corbyn's position though. With suggested threats from different currents, so to speak...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Losing Sheffield and other Labour strongholds up north tilted it here, if Cameron's gone Crobyn's chair shouldn't be any safer

Can you think of any potential Labour leader who could be any better at speaking to these constituencies, though?

Actually, I'm curious if Al thinks there is one. I haven't seen any but admittedly I don't follow British politics very closely.

Note also the very poor Remain results compared to what was widely expected in heavily minority areas. I think most voters were not thinking in party terms when they voted yesterday so if the question of 'who could have convinced more Labour supporters in Sparkbrook or Merthyr or Brightside to vote Remain' then it's probably the wrong question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The most likely thing to happen is  there will be a passport required to travel between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

This may be the single stupidest thing I have read on this forum all year. Good God.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In both cases neither are likely to be in much trouble but the asymmetry is interesting.

It's because the one fits into a media narrative (largely driven by what many would like to see happen) while the other doesn't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Funny how Shetland and Eilean were the 2 places to vote against the EU in 1975.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_European_Communities_membership_referendum,_1975

Interesting that the patterns in England and Wales are much the same this time as back then... with the very significant exceptions of London (relatively much more pro EU now) and the various agricultural districts (relatively much less pro EU now).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some Labour people are suggesting that Labour's main pledge at the next GE should be to take us back in.

That's not going to happen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

    Anyone have any feelings on what areas had the most surprising results?  Either in terms of turnout or outcome?

Heavily Asian areas - from what limited information we have - appear to have voted not dissimilarly from the national average. Actually there was always a decent chance this might happen but it was absolutely not part of the pre-vote narrative in which it was assumed that minorities would be overwhelmingly for Remain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regarding the age thing, it is quite normal for there to be a large gap between very young voters and the rest in terms of turnout no matter the election (always thus: people often need to feel that they have a stake before they start voting), but I don't see any reason to trust any surveys done about this as if they are fact.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The leave vote wasn't just about immigration even if that was a big factor for some. In South Wales there are a lot of older people who have always regarded the EU as part of a capitalist conspiracy (the area saw the lowest by far pro EEC vote in England-and-Wales back in 1975). And the face of the In campaign was David Cameron; for a lot of voters that will have been invitation enough to vote against.

But note that many non-EU migrants (perhaps most? After all I suspect that there was an age split in terms of minorities just as much as white people...) voted Out. I suspect the suggestion that a post-Brexit EU might relax rules on immigration from the old Empire (lol) may have been a factor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If it opts for an EEA agreement, why should Britain be excluded from having to sign up to Schengen? It'll effectively walk away from an 'immigration' based referendum having less control over it.

You would not want to be one of the Tory Leavers if that happens would you? Hey everyone, another bone fide case of politicians telling literal lies to the electorate and so soon after the LibDem uni fees debacle!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's really interesting; so the real minority weakness problem for Remain came through turnout as much as anything else. Less votes than cast at the GE in some inner eastern wards. Indications of stronger OUT votes from Indians than Pakistanis.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The really unusual feature about South Essex (Havering included) in terms of employment patterns is the strikingly high number of people employed in admin, clerical jobs etc. A lot of these people live in detached houses built relatively recently (i.e. after the 1960s) and are often mortgaged up to their throats. A lot of those houses were built on estuarial floodplain and are horrifyingly vulnerable to tidal surges (and were built despite that fact being not exactly a state secret). It's an interesting area, much more so than media stereotypes would imply.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And re. St Albans it was only Labour until 2005 not 2010. The 1997 boundary changes were very helpful for Labour though as it moved the extremely wealthy Tory town of Harpenden and surrounding villages into a new Hitchin and Harpenden constituency where the sitting Tory MP for St Albans Peter Lilley stood and easily won even as the reconfigured St Albans constituency fell to Labour. Needless to say it is seat that Labour won't win except with a centrist leader/platform in a complete Tory meltdown.

It's one of those seats that you just can't believe ever actually fell even with 1997 being 1997. But then that's why we follow elections isn't it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour only held some of those North Kent seats in 2005 because of personal votes (definitely true of Sittingbourne & Sheppey and also Dartford), but one issue when comparing those places is that North Kent is old towns with new suburban-and-commuter developments, while South Essex is pretty much entirely the latter (plus Southend). Though Labour's best seat in North Kent last year was Gravesham, the one they lost in 2005.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And if Labour were to move towards the middle at all then it's clear that it would be in a... erm... direction that would not go down well in St Albans either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ooh there are Ealing ward results? Linky?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ooh there are Ealing ward results? Linky?

http://www.ealingtoday.co.uk/default.asp?section=info&page=eabrexitresults001.htm

Diolch!

So Northolt, Greenford and Southall proper (and a relatively weak turnout in the latter) as the weakest areas for Remain; as expected, but still interesting. Sikhs for Brexit not just a West Midlands thing then...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout in the Salford wards with big Hasidic populations barely above GE levels; another minority not terribly enthused either way?

Also of interest: note that turnout patterns in general are 'normal' ones slightly modified. Not surprising of course, but contrary to what was claimed on the day and the night itself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Spoke with a Stamford Hill Hasid about the referendum, turnout, and the mood in his neighborhood. Most who did turn out voted remain, and it appears to me that this was mainly because of the ties between communities in the UK and communities in Antwerp. If you want your son or daughter to get married to someone in Antwerp, it's easier if they can live there without much hassle, and if you want to sell something, it's easy if there are few restrictions, etc... But many also didn't vote; a combination of being low-info (the Hasid I talked with, who didn't vote, admitted he didn't know who was the new PM) and not caring about politics in general because G-d rules the world.

Thanks; really informative