Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

Sabotage or coincidence?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517187794527043585

Video of the fire in Tver (160km NW of Moscow).

Definitely a weird coincidence if not sabotage or a missle strike. But where there's an ongoing war, it always increases the likelihood of accidents happening.

https://twitter.com/spook_info/status/1517150043190427650?s=20&t=px0Ohw9zBnA...

There was another fire today, evidently.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1517517859827732480?s=20&t=WD34ZYcz...

The chances of these just being accidental is really low at this point.

[Badger]

Does Ukrainian Armed Forces have the capability of striking that deep into Russia? Or is the consensus that this was sabotage?

Afaik, they don't. But of course there is the possibility that they somehow have gained that capability (from NATO presumably).

The supply of long-range tactical missiles is a pretty remote possibility given their stance on old fighter jets.

Honestly the most obvious answer is most likely the correct one in this case.

Lack of adequate safety standards, improper storage of fuel and chemical components, decrepit life safety systems (LSS) designed to quickly detect and suppress any incident, etc...

"Just another industrial accident" seems the most plausible, since presumably workers at the facility would have been extensively screened and monitored for loyalty to the Russian State.

This assumes the absence of some sort of Commando raid. Which I am at least for now not willing to exclude the possibility of.

[Storr]

Sabotage or coincidence?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517187794527043585

Video of the fire in Tver (160km NW of Moscow).

Definitely a weird coincidence if not sabotage or a missle strike. But where there's an ongoing war, it always increases the likelihood of accidents happening.

https://twitter.com/spook_info/status/1517150043190427650?s=20&t=px0Ohw9zBnA...

There was another fire today, evidently.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1517517859827732480?s=20&t=WD34ZYcz...

The chances of these just being accidental is really low at this point.

I deleted the post because evidently it was just a warehouse under construction.

Meanwhile, based:

https://twitter.com/historicfirearm/status/1517478461778112512?s=20&t=WD34ZY...

[Badger]

https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2022042201034&g=pol

Former PM Abe bizarrely compares Putin to warlords from the Sengoku era, saying he is (like a warlord) a “worshipper of power.” Abe said at a symposium that “it would be like asking Oda Nobunaga to respect human rights.”

Opposition CDP leader came back and said “It was Mr. Abe that met with this warlord 27 times and said ‘you and I are looking at the same future.’”

In the meantime Japan started to refer to the disputed Northern Islands as "illegally occupied by Russia" for the first time in 20 years.  That was the position of Japan since WWII but they dropped this wording when Putin came to power hoping to sweet-talk Putin into giving back these islands to Japan for compensation.   At this stage I guess Japan figures that the chances of that is out for a generation or two so they might as well go back to the old wording.

There's nothing quote bizarre quote about the comparison. At least for anyone who understands Japanese history even the slightest, or for that matter isn't such a moral crippled that they don't proud support the doctrine of quote might makes right quote. Sound like anyone you know?

[Person Man]

Sabotage or coincidence?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517187794527043585

Video of the fire in Tver (160km NW of Moscow).

Definitely a weird coincidence if not sabotage or a missle strike. But where there's an ongoing war, it always increases the likelihood of accidents happening.

https://twitter.com/spook_info/status/1517150043190427650?s=20&t=px0Ohw9zBnA...

There was another fire today, evidently.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1517517859827732480?s=20&t=WD34ZYcz...

The chances of these just being accidental is really low at this point.

I deleted the post because evidently it was just a warehouse under construction.

Meanwhile, based:

https://twitter.com/historicfirearm/status/1517478461778112512?s=20&t=WD34ZY...

That has to unlock some sort of achievement.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2022042201034&g=pol

Former PM Abe bizarrely compares Putin to warlords from the Sengoku era, saying he is (like a warlord) a “worshipper of power.” Abe said at a symposium that “it would be like asking Oda Nobunaga to respect human rights.”

Opposition CDP leader came back and said “It was Mr. Abe that met with this warlord 27 times and said ‘you and I are looking at the same future.’”

In the meantime Japan started to refer to the disputed Northern Islands as "illegally occupied by Russia" for the first time in 20 years.  That was the position of Japan since WWII but they dropped this wording when Putin came to power hoping to sweet-talk Putin into giving back these islands to Japan for compensation.   At this stage I guess Japan figures that the chances of that is out for a generation or two so they might as well go back to the old wording.

There's nothing quote bizarre quote about the comparison. At least for anyone who understands Japanese history even the slightest, or for that matter isn't such a moral crippled that they don't proud support the doctrine of quote might makes right quote. Sound like anyone you know?

Warring states periods are fun to read about, but not fun to live through. But they also provide remarkable opportunity for mobility in stratified society, as disorder is as much a threat to the position of the rich as it is the position of the poor. Conversely, times of order and strong central authority can be used by those on the top of the social ladder to entrench themselves and pull up the ladder. Japan saw plenty of both over the 1500s and 1600s.
In a similar way, times of disorder on global level can provide tremendous opportunity for states to rise in power, but also for them to be humbled and severely weakened.

Abe's remarks here are insightful and interesting. Perhaps it is so that Putin wants to create a global Sengoku Jidai, only on a global scale, so that America's global leadership role is disrupted and Russia can reclaim the lands it had for so long. But power comes out of the barrel of the gun (Japan's history also proves this); and Ukraine's guns, in time, could both outnumber and outfire Russia's.

[Storr]

Ukraine is getting the big guns:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1517616385534439425?s=20&t=N0c9CjOfo...

[NOVA Green]

Good read on the hacking and cyberwar scenario from the NYT.

Long article and limited words to post, but worth a read for anyone with a subscription or might want to use one of their free articles or enroll for a trial subscription.

Here are just a few snippets, and have deliberately avoided posting some of the information which most of you reading are likely well aware of.

American intelligence officials say they believe that hackers operating in Russia and Eastern Europe have now been split into at least two camps. Some, like Conti, a major ransomware group that was itself hacked in late February, have pledged fealty to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Others, mostly from Eastern Europe, have been offended by the Russian invasion, and particularly the killings of civilians, and have sided with the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

Distributed Denial of Secrets, or DDoSecrets, the nonprofit organization publishing many of the leaked materials, was founded in 2018 and has published material from U.S. law enforcement agencies, shell companies and right-wing groups. But since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the group has been flooded with data from Russian government agencies and companies. It currently hosts more than 40 data sets related to Russian entities.

DDoSecrets operates as a clearinghouse, publishing data it receives from sources through an open submission process. The organization says that its mission is transparency with the public and that it avoids political affiliations. It is often described as a successor to WikiLeaks, another nonprofit group that has published leaked data it received from anonymous sources.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/22/us/politics/hackers-russia-cyberattacks.html?smid=url-copy

[NOVA Green]

Interesting article about drones supplied to Ukraine, after their government raised concerns about a Chinese company supplying drones and various possible security concerns.

Long article and will need to pay for subscription to see more than this brief summary.

Hovering in the sky above Ukraine are hundreds of small drones from U.S. startups, searching for survivors in war-pummeled cities and Russian hide-outs in the scarred landscape.

Those startups, including Seattle-based BRINC Drones Inc. and Silicon Valley’s Skydio Inc., are rushing to fill a gap in Ukraine after government officials called out products supplied by Chinese company SZ DJI Technology Co., the world’s largest commercial drone maker, as a security risk for Ukraine’s military and civilians.

Ukrainian officials have called for limiting the use of DJI drones, saying technical glitches in the company’s products may have been intentional by DJI to sabotage the country’s defense. They have also raised concerns about Russia’s successful use of DJI equipment.

DJI denies allegations it is aiding Russia’s assault or meddling with Ukraine’s products. Company spokesman Adam Lisberg said DJI doesn’t allow sales of its consumer drones for military purposes and using its products in combat is inappropriate. The Russian Embassy in Washington didn’t respond to a request for comment.

BRINC since last month has donated 10 drones to Ukraine and sold approximately 50 more to aid the country’s defense. Helicopter pilots and members of Ukraine’s State Emergency Service are using them in their search-and-rescue and intelligence-gathering missions, Chief Executive Blake Resnick said. Skydio donated dozens of drones to equip Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, with hundreds more sold to nongovernment organizations and governments supporting Ukraine, said Chief Executive Adam Bry. The startup has a team working full time to supply Ukraine with drones.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-sounds-alarm-on-chinese-drones-opening-skies-to-u-s-startups-11650619800

[NOVA Green]

Looks like there is another mass grave outside of Mariupol, according to the mayor where perhaps another 1,000 might be buried.

Satellite images taken over the devastated port city of Mariupol on Thursday show another mass grave where an estimated 1,000 residents may be buried, according to the city’s mayor.

The images were captured over the village of Vynohradne on the outskirts of Mariupol.

“We will see more and more such burials. Unfortunately. Their territory will expand. Because the death toll is in the tens of thousands,” Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko said via Telegram. He noted the death toll could ultimately rise to near 15,000 as residents in the besieged city remain cut off from fresh supplies of food, water and medicine.

Sightings of the apparent mass grave near Vynohradne come a day after satellite images revealed a mass grave in the Russian-occupied village of Manhush, roughly 12 miles west of Mariupol.

The images, provided Thursday to The Washington Post by Maxar Technologies, show several rows of graves in Manhush in four distinct sections, each measuring nearly 280 feet.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/22/russia-ukraine-war-news-mariupol-live-updates/#link-UPWTW3IV4BBTJMYOP2CZFI46LU

[Storr]

Big if true: https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1517681600925941762?s=20&t=tC3rn7...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Big if true: https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1517681600925941762?s=20&t=tC3rn7...

Distrust (this seems too good to be true for Ukraine), but verify.
If this is as advertised, then that is bad, bad news for Russia.

[Logical]

Another sign of impending mobilization. If anyone's fighting to the last (former) Ukrainian, it's Russia.
https://twitter.com/AKurkov/status/1517393092227252225

[NOVA Green]

Another sign of coming mobilization. If anyone's fighting to the last (former) Ukrainian, it's Russia.
https://twitter.com/AKurkov/status/1517393092227252225

Russian mobilization of forces from Occupied "L & D" and now apparently Crimea thrown into the mix, looks like they are desperate.

Russian casualties through the roof, send in some conscripts who have effectively seized property Roman Style, and force them to be mercs through conscription to pay for their new property seized from the original property owners some 8 years back...

Russian Military increasingly looking like a band of rewarding soldiers for looting, displacing populations to gain their own "home", after having completely destroyed and relocated the civilians from the area (Assuming they are still alive after Russian Artillery Bombardment).

Any sympathizers on Atlas for the Russian rank and file needs to realize that at this point although there might be some good guys on the other side, reality is that the vast majority of the official Russian Military are effectively operating as mercs.

Hate to say it but looting, raping, and pillaging appears to be the new norm at the hands of the "new modernized professional Russian Military".

Wish this was not the case, and hopefully the rest of y'all can prove me wrong on this one...

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm sure that SirWoodbury will still be cheering them on, though.

[Logical]

Do you like LOTR memes? Well good news! I have found more.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm gonna post some musings on what has been one of the most astounding developments within Germany's political system over these past two months, a major political realignment at least in the area of foreign policy.

I'm talking about the fact that the formerly pacifist Greens are arguably Germany's most hawkish party now (according to recent polling data at least in terms of voters, CDU and FDP still have leading politicians who are of equal hawkishness), while the nationalist AfD has become the most doveish one.

What might come across as mindboggling at first has in fact some deeply rooted ideological underpinnings. Where the AfD's whataboutism, both-sideism and calls for neutrality and peace talks (Russia's actions have by now become so extreme that an openly unrepentant pro-Putin stance in the mold of the pre-war era wasn't really sustainable any longer) are coming from is kind of obvious really. While (most?) members of this party might not actually want a full adoption of Putin's authoritarian system of government in Germany they certainly prefer an illiberal democracy à la Orban with a strongman at the top over a liberal democracy like we're having now. Of course strongly connected with that sentiment is an explicit anti-Westernism, anti-EUism and also anti-Americanism (at least as long as Trump isn't in charge over there).

This too explains the Greens' newfound hawkishness. While they originate from pacifist roots no one probably has ever accused them in lacking a certain zealotry when it comes to fighting far-right politics and neither were they known for their indifference when it came to support humanitarian causes across the world. The often fanboyish and fangirlish attitude of the Trumps, the Le Pens, the Salvinis, and the Orbans towards Putin & his regime in combination with recent Russian atrocities like the ones witnessed in Bucha apparently caused people like Anton Hofreiter, a prominent figure in the German Green Party's left wing, to become a born again neocon and say something along the lines that we must send heavy weapons to Ukraine in order to prevent the outbreak of World War III earlier this week. Or to quote party co-chair Ricarda Lang, also from the party's left wing: "Those who pick no side in a war of aggression pick the side of the aggressor." Had the present-day Greens been a political party in pre-Pearl Harbor America they probably would have been the first ones to call for dropping neutrality and isolotianism in the wake of the invasion of Poland. It's the final  completion of an evolution that has been long in the making though, beginning with foreign minister Joschka Fischer's (also Greens) "never again Auschwitz" approach to the Kosovo conflict back in 1999.

So, ultimately what we're witnessing is that the increasing polarization between progressives/"globalists" and populists/isolationists of the past couple of years triggered both sides to adopt diametrically opposed viewpoints on foreign and defense policies as a result of the invasion of Ukraine with the progressives ending up on the hawkish end and the populists on the dovish one.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-says-gas-payments-may-be-possible-under-russian-roubles-proposal-without-2022-04-22/

"EU sees way to pay for Russian gas without breaching sanctions"

It seems EU ok's Russia compromise of EU companies paying USD or EUR for Russian gas and Gazprombank immediately converting it to RUB.  This entire affair is a battle of technicalities.  In the end, the fact remains that Russia will continue to export gas and get paid for it while giving Putin some face-saving "victory".  In the meantime RUb surges to 76 which is early Jan 2022 levels.

[jaichind]

One other thought I had about the current price of RUB is that RUB-USD rate is actually deceptive since the USD itself has strengthened a lot last couple of months due to clear signs that the US Fed will raise interest rates aggressively this year.   If you look at RUB-JPY cross rate the RUB-JPY rate has surged is about the same as it was in 2018.  To be fair that is the result of Russia raising its short-term rates to 18% which clearly has hammered the economy in terms of removing liquidity from the economy.  But clearly, on this narrow metric, Biden's plans to reduce RUB to "rubble" has for now failed.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517787243984924673
https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517788123010420736
This is another big problem for the Russians in the battle of Donbas. Not only have they only seen marginal gains around the edges but they are seeing these gains while suffering a causality rate that is not sustainable. They won’t be able to pull off any successfully encirclement of Ukraine while losing 400-500 men per day not to mention all the equipment lost as well

[Person Man]

How many Russians do you think will ultimately be killed over Ukraine?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517787243984924673
https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517788123010420736
This is another big problem for the Russians in the battle of Donbas. Not only have they only seen marginal gains around the edges but they are seeing these gains while suffering a causality rate that is not sustainable. They won’t be able to pull off any successfully encirclement of Ukraine while losing 400-500 men per day not to mention all the equipment lost as well

The equipment losses may be manageable depending on how quickly their older stockpiles can be brought online. Personnel losses are another matter, but full mobilisation could solve that problem, although it comes with its own risks and doesn’t make up for loss of experienced troops.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hate to say it but looting, raping, and pillaging appears to be the new norm at the hands of the "new modernized professional Russian Military".

The very telling thing is that all evidence points to this sort of behaviour being more common with the true contract soldiers than with the conscripts.

[Storr]

Chad Vitaliy Kim vs. Virgin Vladimir Putin

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1517777769970683904?s=20&t=cMORxu...

[Storr]

Big if true: https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1517681600925941762?s=20&t=tC3rn7...

Distrust (this seems too good to be true for Ukraine), but verify.
If this is as advertised, then that is bad, bad news for Russia.

It's still a Ukrainian source, but it has now been claimed that two Russian generals from the 49th Combined Arms Army, based in Stavropol, were killed in the attack near Kherson. Notably, the 49th Army already lost its commander Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev during the Ukrainian shelling of Kherson Airport in Chornobaivka on March 24th.

https://twitter.com/Magnus_Arturis/status/1517874919404625920?s=20&t=9T3NOjP...

Original Ukrainian HUR (Головне управління розвідки Міністерства оборони України or Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine) tweet:

https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine/status/1517858495831363584?s=20&t=9T3NOjPbKTl...