So they have Maricopa going for Cruz in a tied race I guess.
Yes, they have Cruz+5 there. The rationale is below:
Nearly four times the size of the next biggest county, Maricopa County will be the bellwether of the entire State as the majority of votes on Tuesday night will be counted right here. If you remember the Nevada caucuses then you most likely remember how Las Vegas gave us a lot of information about how the state was going to go as a whole and we will see that here in Arizona as well but on a much larger scale.
The electorate in the state is pretty diverse with a fair amount of African American, Hispanic, and Native American voters. Maricopa county has the highest concentration of African American voters as well as the highest median income of any other county in the state. Although the African American presence is good for Trump, it is minuscule compared to other places Trump has done well in. The Hispanic vote is gargantuan, and many of these voters are Republican. The Hispanic vote is not one of Trump's strong points, but it is important to note that the effect of Hispanics has not been equal throughout the states.
Bachelor Degrees are pretty common in Maricopa county, something that hurts Trump. The more bachelors degrees in an area, the less of a chance Trump seems to have. A surprising finding - for a Southwestern state, the Evangelical population of Maricopa County is the highest in the state - you usually do not find high evangelical populations in major cities, but Maricopa County has its share. These voters are expected to go to Cruz.
In the end, if Trump can't build a significant lead in Maricopa County, he is going to have trouble int he rest of the state. Cruz is benchmarked to win this race, and if Cruz wants a shot at doing so, he's going to need to rely on the very favorable demographics for him. High income - $53k median income has been spectacular for him. High Hispanics, a well educated population, with a touch of evangelicalism. Maricopa County sets the stage for a surprising Cruz showing.
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Doesn't seem very empirical, but let's see. Maybe they're the anti-Nate Silver
