With hcallega clarifying it....
Ford wins the nomination and selects Bob Dole again as his running mate.
Kennedy selects Dale Bumpers as his running mate.
The campaign goes down to two things that help Ford. One, despite Kennedy's lack of association with Carter, Ford makes the argument that "had he won in '76, we wouldn't have this mess in '80." Second argument, which is probably more effective, is -- Chappaquiddick. This dooms Kennedy in the end.
Ford wins. He does better in the popular vote than Reagan generally due to no third party.
Ford/Dole: 371 EV 53% PV
Kennedy/Bumpers: 167 EV 46% PV