Sabato: How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ From Presidential Elections

[Virginiá]

Very good look at midterm vs presidential years, and what to consider for 2018.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/how-midterms-do-and-do-not-differ-from-presidential-elections/


Differences

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(% non-white share of electorate over time)


Similarities

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[Virginiá]

^ All are PARTIALLY correct, IMHO. Senate map is really brutal for Democrats, but House map somewhat favors them, and Governor's map is really good for them (though not as good as Senate map for Republicans). State legislative maps will, probably, be mostly determined by local issues..

http://www.vox.com/2016/9/5/12712932/american-state-government-federalism

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Which makes sense if you ask me. People tend to not know that much about candidates further downballot. Things get more abstract at that point, with opinions of whatever the legislature doing coming down to to whatever the majority party did, and rarely individual lawmakers. However the one thing everyone hears about on a constant basis is the president. This is even more true with Trump. He shapes the opinions of the party, and that affects all the races on the ballot.