Here's how it happens:
The President is winning all but a few of the states that he wins by 5% or less, and he just barely wins CO, IA, NH, and PA. To be sure, he barely loses OH and VA, but he is losing a raft of states by margins of 15% or more. He wins Colorado under questionable circumstances after a statewide Democratic machine appears after about four years, giving a 'flavor' characteristic of 2000. The President barely gets 272 electoral votes.
Republicans are probably taking back the Senate, though, by holding everything and picking up seats in Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Virginia while they lose the House.
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