NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I expected a Murphy win by ~7 points.
This is quite the Republican overperformance

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Murphy loses we all know who is really to blame here...

But unironically, the Italian vote has been trending significantly R the last few cycles.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

So what votes are still to be counted and who will they favor?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Murphy is not an unpopular governor. If he wins, Ciattarelli defeating an incumbent in a D+15 state is a bad omen for the Democrats in 2022.
This isn't a case where it's an open race, the Republican is the incumbent or the governor is very unpopular, everything should be in Murphy's favor.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Can Jack still win?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Murphy takes the lead on DDHQ

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

This has, of course, always been the case.

And it leaves Democrats with a problem which is at once simple and all too difficult to solve: their vibes are simply atrocious at the moment.

Those bickering over who’s progressive or moderate enough need to hear this. People vote based on feelings. The Democratic Party needs new blood, and to give a different impression to voters; policy and ideology are secondary to voters.

This is why Bernie is better electorally than AOC. AOC seems like a whiny socially far-leftist whereas Bernie seems like an old angry dude who cares about people and wants to shake up the system.