Official Nevada Predictions

[Mr. Morden]

IIRC, the caucuses are held in the afternoon rather than at night in Nevada, right? If so, when should we begin to get results?

Short answer is that the caucuses are spread out throughout the day, and the state party will start releasing results at 5pm PT / 8pm ET, but it's unclear if the networks will release an entrance poll before that, and it's also unclear if we'll be able to get results directly from individual precincts hours before the state party releases anything.  Explanation in gory detail here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147887.0

[Mr. Morden]

What is turnout expected to be like?

Dunno what the expectation is, but here are the NV, CO, MN, and ME turnout #s from 2008, compared to Iowa 2008 and Iowa 2012:



Of course, only Romney and Paul contested Nevada in 2008, and this time all of the candidates have spent at least a day or two campaigning there.  OTOH, the race was still more unsettled at the time of the NV caucuses in 2008.  Also, IIRC, there are many more NV caucus sites this time around than in 2008.