Democratic primary map if every state had an open primary

[IceSpear]

Hillary improves in every caucus (IA/NV/CO/MN/KS/NE/ME/ID/UT/AK/WA/HI/WY) and the states with many Dixiecrats (OK/NC). Bernie improves in LA/FL/AZ/NY/CT/DE/MD/PA as well as WV, where many more Republicans would've crossed over due to the fact that their primary was over.

So Hillary improves in more states, but Bernie improves in bigger states. Who would net more delegates would depend on the margin changes which are difficult to guess, but I don't think it would change substantially either way. I do agree with the others that Connecticut would probably be the only state that flips.

[IceSpear]

I think Hillary would still be winning, but the delegate gap would be somewhat narrower.  The only state I think might have flipped to Bernie is Connecticut, and he might have come within ten points in New York, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.  IMO, it would be far more interesting to postulate whether Sanders would be winning if every state had caucuses.

He definitely would be, probably comfortably. Though it would've been interesting to have seen a caucus result in like...Alabama or Mississippi.

[IceSpear]

Oklahoma would've flipped because Dixiecrats could vote for Trump

It would've been a lot closer, but keep in mind not all Dixiecrats voted for Sanders. A lot of them protest voted as well ("other" got 7%.)

[IceSpear]

I agree CT would be the only state to flip, but I imagine Clinton's lead would actually be slightly bigger in terms of delegates. Washington would probably have been extremely close. While individually the flyover states individually don't have many delegates, Clinton collectively would have netted maybe a dozen more in all of them.

Remember that almost all southern states already had open primaries, so Clinton's margins there wouldn't be affected. Even Mississippi, where she won 83% of the vote, was an open primary.

Sanders actually would've been held under viability in AL/MS if they were closed. I don't think WA would've been close though. It probably would've been a ~20 point Sanders win instead of a ~50 point Sanders win.

[IceSpear]

Oklahoma would've flipped because Dixiecrats could vote for Trump

Take out every single "conservative" in exit polling and Sanders still wins by 8 or so (52-44). His share of the vote doesn't actually change; Clinton's merely increases due to the lack of all those (real) protest votes.




Also, probably something like this (assuming that all of the existing party registrations and loyalties that come with them still exist; i.e.: places like KY where lots of conservadems are still going to be voting in the Democratic primary due to local primaries on the same ballot).

Missouri, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Iowa would have flipped as well.

Why would Iowa flip? The caucus was already open. I don't see why he'd do better in a primary. If anything she'd probably expand her margin.

I'm guessing the case for MA/MO is same day registration? MO was close enough that it could've been determinative, but I don't think it would've been enough to flip MA.