🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[urutzizu]

We have a final result in Saxony:




AFD loses one Seat due to Underhang. They should have actually been allocated 39.

For those interested, here is a interactive results map, including by commune for Brandenburg:
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/brandenburg-wahlkarte-101.html
and for Saxony:
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/sachsen-wahlkarte-101.html

To select by commune, go to the slider below the map on the top right, click down and click on "Gemeinden". The other features are also quite interesing, such as by income and emigration rates. Try playing around with it.

[urutzizu]

Are Freie Wähler parties considered to be just additional groups of conservatives in all states, or does it vary by state? I remember reading that the Bavarian branch was, and someone in the thread noted that the Brandenburg one is, too.

Also, what's the reason behind their rise across the board?

The southern German ones, especially the Bravarian Branch are basically conservatives that dont like CSU arrogance/authoritarianism and dont like the AFD either. But the others are really just loose groupings. Broadly Centrist, sometimes leaning a bit right, but in Brandenburg they were mostly an anti-Airport protest vote (in my opinion, that is).
As to why they are rising, well thats just what is happening in the western world: Party loyalities fade, people becoming dissatisfied with mainstream politcians, the partisan landscape splitting into more parties...The free Voters have found their niche there. And they also have a couple of big advantages: They have a good network in local politics, especially in the south. And they have an untainted name.

[urutzizu]

Results by Age (Saxony)



Results by Occupation
Arbeiter= Manual Labour
Angestellte= Service Workers
Selbstständige= Self-Employed
Rentner=Retired



Good Lord. There was a time when the SPD was called the "Arbeiterpartei" (Party of Labour). We know which Party carries this title now.

[bigic]

Is this a step to Free Voters being a national party that can cross 5%?

[urutzizu]

Is this a step to Free Voters being a national party that can cross 5%?

Highly Doubt it. Their political platform is too much tied their various localisms and too little tied to a coherent ideology for me to consider them a viable national force. Their Kind of Politics is based more for a local level. But who knows nowadays anyway. Didnt stop "Mayors and Independents" in Czechia.

[jaichind]

Looks like Greens under-performed

[Helsinkian]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1168202115451367424

[Beezer]

If you add up the votes from Brandenburg and Saxony, the AfD did manage to come in first...barely.

AfD: 26.02%
CDU: 26.01%
SPD: 14.5%
Left: 10.5%
Greens: 9.4%

[JA]

If you add up the votes from Brandenburg and Saxony, the AfD did manage to come in first...barely.

AfD: 26.02%
CDU: 26.01%
SPD: 14.5%
Left: 10.5%
Greens: 9.4%

It's important to note that, despite the AfD's impressive results, 73.98% of German voters in Saxony and Brandenburg voted for some other party.

[jaichind]

In Saxony I guess it will be CDU-SPD-Greens for ruling bloc ?  It seem same for Brandenburg unless SPD-Greens are willing to include the Left. CDU-SPD-Greens coalition seems like the best way for the AfD vote share to rise even further next election.

[urutzizu]

In Saxony I guess it will be CDU-SPD-Greens for ruling bloc ?  It seem same for Brandenburg unless SPD-Greens are willing to include the Left. CDU-SPD-Greens coalition seems like the best way for the AfD vote share to rise even further next election.

Saxony will almost certainly be CDU-Greens-SPD (Kenya) and Brandenburg SPD-Linke-Greens. Some in the right wing-fraction of the CDU want a CDU minority tolerated by the AFD, but that is not going to happen.

[Astatine]

In Saxony I guess it will be CDU-SPD-Greens for ruling bloc ?  It seem same for Brandenburg unless SPD-Greens are willing to include the Left. CDU-SPD-Greens coalition seems like the best way for the AfD vote share to rise even further next election.

SPD-CDU-BVB/FW does not seem too unrealistic for Brandenburg. Could imagine that happening, especially if the Greens insist that coal should be abandoned earlier than 2038, which might strengthen the AfD as a short-term consequence.

[parochial boy]

Media takes I've seen this morning have tended to be along the lines of "the AfD have hit their ceiling". Given they only made minor improvements on 2017, that isn't a totally outrageous claim - even if it seems a little premature. But I do think what those sorts of takes are showing is a change in the narrative towards far-right parties that has started to take place after the relative disappointment of the EU elections. They're obviously still strong; may, or may not, be growing - but the media "establishment" has become a little more sanguine over the threat that they pose. Which is itself is a development that could have its own consequences

[urutzizu]

Media takes I've seen this morning have tended to be along the lines of "the AfD have hit their ceiling". Given they only made minor improvements on 2017, that isn't a totally outrageous claim - even if it seems a little premature. But I do think what those sorts of takes are showing is a change in the narrative towards far-right parties that has started to take place after the relative disappointment of the EU elections. They're obviously still strong; may, or may not, be growing - but the media "establishment" has become a little more sanguine over the threat that they pose. Which is itself is a development that could have its own consequences

What concerns me, is that AFD support is still improving despite Migrant Numbers having gone down to pre-crisis levels. Migration should be returning to the prominence it had as an issue until 2014 - but it isnt. We are having big economic problems. Why arent they being talked about?
Not only does it show that people - rightly or wrongly - perceive that integration is not working, also it begs the question: what will happen when a 2015 situation returns? We cannot wish away the fact that with climate change, conflict in the middle east, etc., this will happen again. There will then be a very sinister effect on German politics.

[Annatar]

Media takes I've seen this morning have tended to be along the lines of "the AfD have hit their ceiling". Given they only made minor improvements on 2017, that isn't a totally outrageous claim - even if it seems a little premature. But I do think what those sorts of takes are showing is a change in the narrative towards far-right parties that has started to take place after the relative disappointment of the EU elections. They're obviously still strong; may, or may not, be growing - but the media "establishment" has become a little more sanguine over the threat that they pose. Which is itself is a development that could have its own consequences

What concerns me, is that AFD support is still improving despite Migrant Numbers having gone down to pre-crisis levels. Migration should be returning to the prominence it had as an issue until 2014 - but it isnt. We are having big economic problems. Why arent they being talked about?
Not only does it show that people - rightly or wrongly - perceive that integration is not working, also it begs the question: what will happen when a 2015 situation returns? We cannot wish away the fact that with climate change, conflict in the middle east, etc., this will happen again. There will then be a very sinister effect on German politics.

The migrant issue in 2015 was the rocket fuel the AFD needed to take off, now it is in orbit it doesn't need that issue any longer. The AFD can campaign on issues of heimat (homeland) and identity indefinitely, and can also position itself as the anti-elite party regardless of migrant numbers. Issues of culture and identity are perennial and the AFD can campaign on those issues for as long as Germany exists.

[parochial boy]

Media takes I've seen this morning have tended to be along the lines of "the AfD have hit their ceiling". Given they only made minor improvements on 2017, that isn't a totally outrageous claim - even if it seems a little premature. But I do think what those sorts of takes are showing is a change in the narrative towards far-right parties that has started to take place after the relative disappointment of the EU elections. They're obviously still strong; may, or may not, be growing - but the media "establishment" has become a little more sanguine over the threat that they pose. Which is itself is a development that could have its own consequences

What concerns me, is that AFD support is still improving despite Migrant Numbers having gone down to pre-crisis levels. Migration should be returning to the prominence it had as an issue until 2014 - but it isnt. We are having big economic problems. Why arent they being talked about?
Not only does it show that people - rightly or wrongly - perceive that integration is not working, also it begs the question: what will happen when a 2015 situation returns? We cannot wish away the fact that with climate change, conflict in the middle east, etc., this will happen again. There will then be a very sinister effect on German politics.

Yeah, I don't have any great take on how things would develop from here. It's the kind of thing that is always going to be tempered as much by what you want to happen as what is actually likely.

I think it's inevitable that unless climate change is brought under control (almost zero chance, lol), one of the effects will be a massive population movement that dwarfs what we saw in 2015. That might help the AfD; but 5-10 more years of today's largely pro-green teenagers starting to vote and AfD's climate denialist stance might work against them; or we just see further and further polarisation. No-one honestly knows - I think the only thing we can say for sure is that no current party is well enough established to be safe from collapse.

[Tender Branson]

27.5% for the AfD is the best result for the party ever in Germany in state, federal and EU elections and matches the best result that the FPÖ ever scored: 27.5% in the 1996 EU election (they got 26.9% in the 1999 federal election and 26.0% in the 2017 federal election).

[palandio]

Interesting fact: Rising turnout means that even in shrinking states the Grand Coalition (which in Saxony was also the governing coalition of state level) basically remained stable in absolute terms.

Saxony
CDU from 645,414 to 695,494 (+50,080)
SPD from 202,396 to 167,378 (-35,018)
together from 847,810 to 862,872 (+15,062)

Brandenburg
SPD from 315,201 to 331,240 (+16,039)
CDU from 226,835 to 196,989 (-29,846)
together from 542,036 to 528,229 (-13,807)

The AfD seems to have gained a lot of former non-voters that had been disaffected from politics for quite some time.

[President Johnson]

So my prediction is Red-Red-Green for Brandenburg and CDU-SPD-Greens in Saxony. The latter is going to be more difficult to put together, but I'm pretty sure it's going to work out, alone for the sake of the state and the lack of alternatives.

[Beezer]

Media takes I've seen this morning have tended to be along the lines of "the AfD have hit their ceiling". Given they only made minor improvements on 2017, that isn't a totally outrageous claim - even if it seems a little premature.

I always wonder what these commentators were expecting in terms of the electoral outcome? That the AfD was going to win 50-60% of the vote? Yes, the AfD in its current state probably has a ceiling of around 30% in most EGerman states. That would still make it the strongest party however. And who knows what might happen 5, 10, 20 years down the road. A few years ago nobody would have expected to see an FPÖ candidate win 50% of the vote in a presidential election.

[Former President tack50]

27.5% for the AfD is the best result for the party ever in Germany in state, federal and EU elections and matches the best result that the FPÖ ever scored: 27.5% in the 1996 EU election (they got 26.9% in the 1999 federal election and 26.0% in the 2017 federal election).

Worth noting this is only in a couple of states. Getting 27.5% Austria-wide is much more impressive than getting 27.5% in a single state.

[President Johnson]

27.5% for the AfD is the best result for the party ever in Germany in state, federal and EU elections and matches the best result that the FPÖ ever scored: 27.5% in the 1996 EU election (they got 26.9% in the 1999 federal election and 26.0% in the 2017 federal election).

Worth noting this is only in a couple of states. Getting 27.5% Austria-wide is much more impressive than getting 27.5% in a single state.

Well, before Kurz became ÖVP leader, the FPÖ was polling in the low to mid 30s range for a while and both the SPÖ and ÖVP were trailing outside the margin of error. Especially during the closing months of the Faymann government.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

27.5% for the AfD is the best result for the party ever in Germany in state, federal and EU elections and matches the best result that the FPÖ ever scored: 27.5% in the 1996 EU election (they got 26.9% in the 1999 federal election and 26.0% in the 2017 federal election).

Worth noting this is only in a couple of states. Getting 27.5% Austria-wide is much more impressive than getting 27.5% in a single state.

But considering Saxony (4,077,937) and Brandenburg (2,511,917) together don't have considerably fewer inhabitants than Austria (8.858.775), it's still an impressive result for the AfD, especially given the fact that they emerged as the victorious party of yesterday's elections.

If you add up the votes from Brandenburg and Saxony, the AfD did manage to come in first...barely.

AfD: 26.02%
CDU: 26.01%
SPD: 14.5%
Left: 10.5%
Greens: 9.4%

[Tender Branson]

If we add the coming elections in Thüringen, then it’s 8.7 million and comparable to Austria.

But the 3 East-German states have far more eligible voters (7.2 million) than Austria (6.4), because they have virtually no foreigners ...

Still, turnout there is only 60% while we have 80% - which means more votes cast here.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

Do you think Gov. Bodo Ramelow‘s Linke will also collapse below 20% in Thüringen next month, as seen yesterday, or will there be a rally-effect for the incumbent governor, also as seen yesterday ?