The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[© tweed]

great month for W Mitt.  up 25%.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Perry, Palin
Down: Huntsman

Romney 40.0
Perry 35.9
Palin 6.0
Huntsman 4.6
Bachmann 3.2
Paul 2.7
Giuliani 2.2
Christie 1.6
Gingrich 1.3
Johnson 0.5
Cain 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Santorum 0.2

And the two parties are now nearly tied on "winning party":

Dems 49.3
GOP 49.1
other 2.0

[Bull Moose Base]

In 2008, did intrade ever have the candidate leading every national poll in second place or is this a first?

[Mr. Morden]

In 2008, did intrade ever have the candidate leading every national poll in second place or is this a first?

It happened for brief periods of time now and then.  Early on, Giuliani was leading every poll, but McCain led on Intrade.  Though that was when Giuliani just had an exploratory committee, and there were doubts about whether he'd mount a serious campaign.  Giuliani then surpassed McCain on Intrade in late Feb. / early March 2007, a few weeks after officially entering the race.  Giuliani led the polls and led Intrade for the rest of 2007, with the exception of a few brief interludes.  There was actually a short period of time in the summer when Thompson took a small lead on Intrade, though he was still only second in the polls.

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum went down after an incredible debate performance?

[Simfan34]

Santorum went down after an incredible debate performance?

I was wondering the same.

[Wonkish1]

I wouldn't call it incredible, but clearly his best.

[Averroës Nix]

I wouldn't call it incredible, but clearly his best.

At odds as low as where Santorum is currently trading, it's hard to say what is going on. But I've never understood why Santorum has consistently traded at below 0.5%. He definitely should be higher than Gary Johnson and much closer to Gingrich and Cain.

[Beet]

In 2008, did intrade ever have the candidate leading every national poll in second place or is this a first?

It happened for brief periods of time now and then.  Early on, Giuliani was leading every poll, but McCain led on Intrade.  Though that was when Giuliani just had an exploratory committee, and there were doubts about whether he'd mount a serious campaign.  Giuliani then surpassed McCain on Intrade in late Feb. / early March 2007, a few weeks after officially entering the race.  Giuliani led the polls and led Intrade for the rest of 2007, with the exception of a few brief interludes.  There was actually a short period of time in the summer when Thompson took a small lead on Intrade, though he was still only second in the polls.

I just had to look these up.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie and Paul have both surpassed Bachmann, putting her back at 7th place.

GOP nomination

Romney 40.0
Perry 36.3
Palin 5.1
Huntsman 5.0
Christie 2.9
Paul 2.9
Bachmann 2.7
Giuliani 1.6
Gingrich 1.1
Johnson 0.5
Cain 0.4

And Clinton is tied with Palin as top woman in "winning individual", both ahead of Bachmann.

Winning Individual

Obama 50.1
Romney 19.0
Perry 16.4
Paul 3.3
Huntsman 2.7
Clinton 2.5
Palin 2.5
Bachmann 1.4
Gingrich 0.9
Biden 0.5

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Paul is higher on winning individual than on being nominated?

[Likely Voter]

I think too much attention is paid to the low-priced Intrade "stocks". Intrade is not a truly efficient market, especially at the the low end. The fees and rules of putting up money combined with the low volume means that the market doesn't really reflect the true value of the securities like the real stock market.

[Yelnoc]

Paul is higher on winning individual than on being nominated?

I guess someone thinks he can run as an independent and win (or just forgot to buy him as the nominee).

[King]

I'm still kicking myself for not buying Bobby Jindal at 20.0 when this thread started.

[Beet]

Paul is higher on winning individual than on being nominated?

I guess someone thinks he can run as an independent and win (or just forgot to buy him as the nominee).

Oh goody. If it weren't for the $5 monthly fee and probably $30 in transaction costs, you might be able to pick up a couple of pennies on arbitrage!

[ag]

tightening )

Romney 39.5
Perry 37.0
Palin 5.4
Huntsman 4.6
Christie 3.2
Paul 3.2
Bachmann 2.5
Gingrich 1.3
Giuliani 1.0
Johnson 0.5
Cain 0.5
J. Bush 0.2
Ryan 0.2
Santorum 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update: Palin is surging, as both Romney and Perry drop a bit.

Up: Palin
Down: Romney, Perry

GOP nomination

Romney 38.0
Perry 35.9
Palin 9.5
Huntsman 4.5
Christie 3.3
Paul 3.0
Bachmann 1.9
Gingrich 1.2
Giuliani 1.2
Johnson 0.5
Huckabee 0.3
Santorum 0.3
J. Bush 0.2
Cain 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Will the following potential candidates run?

Palin 33.0
Giuliani 9.1
Christie 8.5

Winning party

GOP 49.1
Dems 49.0
other 1.6

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Romney greatly expands his lead over Perry.  Johnson's neighbor's dogs move him up from 0.5 to 0.7.

Up: Romney, Christie
Down: Perry, Palin

GOP nomination

Romney 42.2
Perry 32.0
Palin 8.5
Huntsman 4.5
Christie 4.3
Paul 2.5
Bachmann 1.9
Gingrich 1.3
Giuliani 0.9
Johnson 0.7
Huckabee 0.3
Santorum 0.3
J. Bush 0.2
Cain 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Winning party

GOP 49.5
Dems 48.4
other 1.8

[Wonkish1]

If you want to make some money buy Cain ahead of the next poll that comes out.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's where things stood 1 year ago, back when no one thought Bachmann, Perry, or Huntsman was going to run:

Romney 32.4
Palin 17.6
Thune 17.6
Pawlenty 12.8
Gingrich 9.5
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
Huckabee 6.1
J. Bush 5.9
Pence 5.0

[© tweed]

Romney / Perry now 45.0 / 27.1

[© tweed]

GOP bid/ask both above 50 now too.  the seas have changed.

[Phony Moderate]

Christie up to 12.9....

[Mr. Morden]

Christie on fire, now in third place.

Up: Romney, Christie
Down: Perry

GOP nomination

Romney 43.9
Perry 26.5
Christie 12.9
Palin 8.0
Huntsman 4.5
Paul 2.9
Bachmann 1.9
Gingrich 0.9
Giuliani 0.9
J. Bush 0.5
Johnson 0.5
Santorum 0.4
Cain 0.3
Ryan 0.3

Winning Party

GOP 50.1
Dems 48.3

Will the following potential candidates run?

Palin 27.9
Christie 20.0
Giuliani 8.2

[Yelnoc]

Seconds after you posted that, Perry dropped to 25.1.  I have an inkling that Perry will bottom out; he has been the anti-Romney on Intrade but once a more viable candidate like Christie surfaces, much of those buyers will flee.