The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[TheGlobalizer]

Palin above Bachmann? What the ?

Perry is the new surrogate-Palin.  Palin is the actual Palin.

I'm going to go out on a limb and speculate Johnson hits 1.0+ soon.  I think he woke some people up with his family values pledge reaction.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney back in 1st place (barely).

GOP pres. nominee

Romney 31.4
Perry 31.0
Huntsman 7.7
Palin 7.0
Bachmann 6.3
Pawlenty 6.0
Paul 2.5
Christie 2.2
Giuliani 1.8
Gingrich 0.5
Johnson 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Ryan 0.5
Cain 0.4

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 30.0
Bachmann 7.1
Palin 7.0
McDonnell 6.5
Huntsman 6.0
Pawlenty 5.5
Thune 5.3
Huckabee 4.7

[tpfkaw]

You forgot Donald Trump.

[Yelnoc]

Cain's numbers are just embarrassing.

Here's a question.  Do you guys think Intrade tends to lead polling trends or follow them?

[Simfan34]

Cain's numbers are just embarrassing.

Here's a question.  Do you guys think Intrade tends to lead polling trends or follow them?

Leads them, if by a whisker.

[The Mikado]

Buy Bachmann.

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty rebounds to fourth place, and the Democratic Party is down to just a 50.1% chance of winning the general election.

Romney 33.5
Perry 32.0
Huntsman 7.5
Pawlenty 7.0
Palin 6.7
Bachmann 6.1
Paul 3.7
Christie 1.8
Giuliani 1.8
Gingrich 0.6
Johnson 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Ryan 0.5
Cain 0.4

Winning party

Dems 50.1
GOP 48.8
other 1.3

Iowa straw poll

Bachmann 56.0
Paul 30.9
Pawlenty 12.6

[Yelnoc]

It's amazing how consistent Huntsman has been.  I wonder what the chance is of the Bushes and other "establishment Republicans" backing him over Mittens?

[King]

I imagine the Bushes are going to back Perry.

[Bull Moose Base]

I imagine the Bushes are going to back Perry.

Supposedly, they can't stand him.

[Simfan34]

I imagine the Bushes are going to back Perry.

Supposedly, they can't stand him.

Huntsman has been making some noises about a "major endorsement" tommorow. Some say it may be Jeb Bush Jr... but I'm hoping for the big one.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.miaminewtimes.com/riptide/2011/08/will_jeb_bush_endorse_jon_hunt.php

[All Along The Watchtower]

I imagine the Bushes are going to back Perry.

I thought they liked Romney...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

why would any Bush endorse anyone in a primary?

[TheGlobalizer]

Huntsman is, I'm sure, trying very very hard to get Jeb's endorsement (the real one, not the kid).  It would be a huge boost, and it makes a lot of sense for Jeb to do it.

Anyone know what Jeb is trying to do in the future, politically?  Senator?  Cabinet official?  I don't know much about his pet projects/interests.

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update:

Up: Huntsman
Down: Romney, Perry

Romney 31.6
Perry 30.4
Huntsman 8.5
Palin 7.2
Bachmann 6.3
Pawlenty 6.1
Paul 3.3
Giuliani 2.3
Christie 2.0
Cain 1.0
Ryan 0.8
Gingrich 0.7
Johnson 0.5
Pataki 0.5

Winning Party:

Dems 50.0
GOP 47.0
other 1.5

Ames straw poll:

Bachmann 57.9
Paul 38.8
Pawlenty 10.5

[Keystone Phil]

So Santorum isn't even on the board anymore because Pataki jumped ahead of him? Yeah, that's nonsense.

[TheGlobalizer]

So Santorum isn't even on the board anymore because Pataki jumped ahead of him? Yeah, that's nonsense.

Oh, Phil.

Now you know how us long-suffering libertarians feel.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry back in 1st place for the nomination, and Paul surges into a tie for 1st to win the straw poll.

Up: Perry, Paul
Down: Romney

Perry 31.8
Romney 30.0
Huntsman 7.7
Palin 7.7
Bachmann 6.5
Pawlenty 6.5
Paul 4.4
Giuliani 2.0
Gingrich 1.5
Cain 1.4
Christie 1.3
Ryan 0.7
Johnson 0.5
Pataki 0.5

Ames straw poll:

Bachmann 45.0
Paul 45.0
Pawlenty 10.0

[King]

You have $6.50.  Why would you spend it on Tim Pawlenty instead of Michelle Bachmann?

[Mr. Morden]

The market has suddenly become convinced that Paul is going to win the straw poll, and he's now close to an all-time high to win the nomination, moving all the way up to fourth place for the nomination.

In 2007, Paul was in the 5-10 range throughout much of the latter half of the year.  And the trading volume on him was high, as the Paul enthusiasts and skeptics traded more shares than for any other candidate.  Is history going to repeat itself?  It may depend on what happens in Ames.

Up: Paul
Down: Huntsman, Bachmann

GOP nominee

Perry 32.2
Romney 30.0
Palin 7.6
Paul 6.8
Huntsman 5.9
Pawlenty 5.8
Bachmann 5.2
Giuliani 1.9
Christie 1.3
Gingrich 1.0
Cain 0.6
Johnson 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Ryan 0.5

Dem. nominee

Obama 91.5
Clinton 5.0
Biden 1.7

Ames straw poll

Paul 62.9
Bachmann 33.9
Pawlenty 13.9

[Mr. Morden]

Any predictions on what the standings are going to look like by Sunday if.....

Paul wins the straw poll?
Bachmann wins the straw poll?
Pawlenty wins the straw poll?

[Yelnoc]

Paul wins the straw poll?
-Paul moves up to third place and breaks 10 points.  Bachmann and Pawlenty tank to below 5 points.

Bachmann wins the straw poll?
-Bachmann rallies to third, possibly breaking 10 points.  Paul remains mostly flat, while Pawlenty skydives to the 2 point range.

Pawlenty wins the straw poll?
-Pawlenty rallies to third, possibly breaking 10 points.  Paul remains mostly flat, while Bachmann falls, though likely not so drastically as Pawlenty.


I wonder when we will get a definitive no (or yes, I suppose) out of Palin?  Because taking her off the map should drive Bachmann's share price up.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Paul wins
Paul either moves to second or becomes a stronger third, but his polling numbers begin to climb while Bachmann and T-Paw decline. Maybe this would put him somewhere between the 16-20% range? Depends on the margin of victory and possibly turnout.

Bachmann wins
Bachmann climbs back to first and gets a boost in growth, while Paul levels off and Pawlenty crumbles.

Pawlenty wins
Pawlenty gains a huge boost in polling while Bachmann falls apart and Paul levels. Maybe third place?

[Mr. Morden]

The market swings back in favor of thinking Bachmann will win the straw poll.

GOP nomination:

Perry 32.0
Romney 30.0
Bachmann 7.5
Palin 7.4
Huntsman 7.0
Paul 4.5
Pawlenty 2.6

Ames straw poll

Bachmann 76.0
Paul 27.7
Pawlenty 2.0

[Mr. Morden]

Ames straw poll

Bachmann 93.0
Paul 7.5
Pawlenty 1.0