Odds that Minnesota Democrats have a trifecta in Jan 2021

[Virginiá]

need answers plz thx

[Virginiá]

We have a few hurdles, there's a south metro State Senate seat that will be VERY hard to retain for example. But I'm quite optimistic. I'll say 70%

I figured 70% was fairly adequate myself. I don't have a district-by-district analysis, but Democrats seem to have had solid footing in the state Senate for a longggg time now, with 2010 and 2016 being rough spots (2016's result isn't that great for the GOP, all things considered, imo). The state House shouldn't be hard to flip and retain this+next cycle.

This could also be the first time in generations that either party had full control of the redistricting process!

[Virginiá]

Hmm, any Blue Wave (if it exists) should dissipate by 2020 in the same manner 2012 didn't follow along on what happened in 2010. I can see the Dems winning the Governor seat, but losing the State House and missing out on the Senate in 2020.

Why would that happen?

Seriously. You know elections don't just replay the same way forever for no reason, right? I mean, Trump could win again in 2020, but you ought to make an argument for it other than "but 2012," which is a reallllllllly lazy way of thinking about this.

If you want to go the 2012 route though, think about it this way: Obama lost a little less than half his first election's winning margin, meaning a Trump 2012-esque reelection campaign scenario would see him losing millions more votes nationally. What happens if the 2020 Democrat wins by almost double Clinton's margin, replicating 2012-like parameters? Trump loses, and it won't be that close either. You can't just take "2020 = 2012" and only take the parts that fit what you want to happen. That's not how any of this works.

[Virginiá]

What's wrong with taking historical parallels? '94 was a Dem bloodbath, but Hillary's husband hung on just 2 years later. Same with '82 and '84 reversed. Sure, DJT may be a one-termer, but it's common for the outparty to let out their frustrations in the midterms and then tire out by the time the Presidential campaign rolls around.

But you're not even trying to justify why your parallel will happen. You're just saying it will because it's the closest example for you to latch onto, even though the circumstances are not the same.

Also, you didn't answer my question. If Trump is going to have his own 2012 reelex moment like you said, then by the 2012 scenario, he must lose considerably more support, just like Obama did. The thing is, Trump can't lose more support and still win. His original win was so razor thin that even a 2.5% popular vote win for the Democrat would knock him out. Except a 2012-scenario would suggest the Democrat winning the popular vote by >= 3.5%. Trump won't survive that.

So your hypothetical 2012 scenario doesn't really add up. This is why you should actually present a well-reasoned argument instead of just pulling things out of your butt and throwing them on the wall. Maybe it makes sense in your head, but what you're actually saying doesn't.