Spanish elections and politics IV / Catalan elections on May 12, 2024

[Velasco]

What the heck were the voter flows like? Why did Puigdemont's party gain support while the separatist parties on the left lost instead? I guess C's voters probably moved to PP, but I'm having some trouble making sense of this all because I know little about Catalonian politics.

Pro-independence losses were due to the bad results of the left-wing parties, specifically the ERC collapse. Probably we'll see some vote transfer analyses in the following days.  My guess is that most of the ERC and CUP losses went to abstention, but ERC losses also went to Junts and the PSC. It'd be relevant to know the size of ERC transfers to the PSC (for sure the amount is lower compared to general elections,  but still sizeable)

[Zinneke]

Don't rule out the possibility of a pro corruption PSC-Junts pact.

The Hard Rock coalition.

Counterpoint. It maybe good that Spain (and China) overbuilds even if some of overbuilding is bad to make up all of the countries that underbuilds.
Second Hard Rock is owned by Seminole tribe.

 It is already well built up as it is. I'd like Spain and other countries to build an entire new city (even a microstate like Luxembourg could do with a new city). But the capital is going towards tourist appartments that are more secure investments than working class people and that the owner can access if they like to retreat for a while.

Anyway, PSC if they govern with a tripartite will have to concede on the issues of overdevelopment (expansion of Barcelona-El Prat Airport, Hard Rock café and other developments in Tarragona). Comuns mostly run on those kind of issues.

What the heck were the voter flows like? Why did Puigdemont's party gain support while the separatist parties on the left lost instead? I guess C's voters probably moved to PP, but I'm having some trouble making sense of this all because I know little about Catalonian politics.

Pro-independence losses were due to the bad results of the left-wing parties, specifically the ERC collapse. Probably we'll see some vote transfer analyses in the following days.  My guess is that most of the ERC and CUP losses went to abstention, but ERC losses also went to Junts and the PSC. It'd be relevant to know the size of ERC transfers to the PSC (for sure the amount is lower compared to general elections,  but still sizeable)

El Pais says that unionists abstained more last election and turned out more this one, although maybe not necessarily on the constitutional issue but rather issues like immigration. PP voters were clearly unhappy with the offering last time out or not bothered.

[Velasco]

[571321.msg9478757#msg9478757 date=1715553217 uid=12086]
 

What the heck were the voter flows like? Why did Puigdemont's party gain support while the separatist parties on the left lost instead? I guess C's voters probably moved to PP, but I'm having some trouble making sense of this all because I know little about Catalonian politics.

Pro-independence losses were due to the bad results of the left-wing parties, specifically the ERC collapse. Probably we'll see some vote transfer analyses in the following days.  My guess is that most of the ERC and CUP losses went to abstention, but ERC losses also went to Junts and the PSC. It'd be relevant to know the size of ERC transfers to the PSC (for sure the amount is lower compared to general elections,  but still sizeable)

El Pais says that unionists abstained more last election and turned out more this one, although maybe not necessarily on the constitutional issue but rather issues like immigration. PP voters were clearly unhappy with the offering last time out or not bothered.

Abstention was abnormally high in 2021, particularly among non-nationalist voters, even by Catalan election standards. On the other hand, the rise of Aliança Catalana reveals that xenophobia also affects the pro-independence camp (it will be fascinating to see how Carles Puigdemont deals with Silvia Orriols). Recent polls show that people nowadays is more worried about immigration, health, education, climate warming and water shortage due to the severe drought affecting Catalonia. Perhaps people perceived the last Catalan governments didn't pay enough attention to pressing problems. I wouldn't rule out voters sent a message in that regard, demanding action on critical issues.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Strong result for the PSC, but I am here to mark the official passing of Ciudadanos, which hit the classic threshold of getting fewer votes than the Animalist Party (as well as fewer than there were blank ballots or null ballots). Won't be missed.

[Oryxslayer]

Strong result for the PSC, but I am here to mark the official passing of Ciudadanos, which hit the classic threshold of getting fewer votes than the Animalist Party (as well as fewer than there were blank ballots or null ballots). Won't be missed.

It appears that these upcoming European elections will finally leave the party with nothing relevant electorally,  since their last elected regional politician in Castille-Leon defected a year ago.

[Flyersfan232]

Strong result for the PSC, but I am here to mark the official passing of Ciudadanos, which hit the classic threshold of getting fewer votes than the Animalist Party (as well as fewer than there were blank ballots or null ballots). Won't be missed.

It appears that these upcoming European elections will finally leave the party with nothing relevant electorally,  since their last elected regional politician in Castille-Leon defected a year ago.

any chance for another party to come claim the centrist spot in spainish politics?

[DL]

So what is the likeliest government to emerge from this election? Seems to me that the most obvious would have been PSC+ERC+SUP - the fact that pro-independence parties have less than half the vote kind of undercuts any claims by Junts to being in government - but ERC sys they don't want to be in government - so do they passively support a PSC minority government from outside?

[Zinneke]

So what is the likeliest government to emerge from this election? Seems to me that the most obvious would have been PSC+ERC+SUP - the fact that pro-independence parties have less than half the vote kind of undercuts any claims by Junts to being in government - but ERC sys they don't want to be in government - so do they passively support a PSC minority government from outside?

I would gamble on a PSC-Comuns minority government with ERC voting the budget.

If I were Catalan I'd demand a PSC-PP-AC government of national unity and stream the cabinet meetings on OnlyFans. The Sagrada Familia would be paid off by the end of the month.

Strong result for the PSC, but I am here to mark the official passing of Ciudadanos, which hit the classic threshold of getting fewer votes than the Animalist Party (as well as fewer than there were blank ballots or null ballots). Won't be missed.

In their last electoral meeting before the vote they had more journalists than activists present.

[DL]

This election seems to me to be a vindication of Sanchez's strategy vis-a-vis Catalonia - for the first time in ages support for pro-independence parties is below 50% - when the PP was in power using their hardline approach all it did was pour fuel on the fire and almost caused the breakup of Spain.

[CumbrianLefty]

Strong result for the PSC, but I am here to mark the official passing of Ciudadanos, which hit the classic threshold of getting fewer votes than the Animalist Party (as well as fewer than there were blank ballots or null ballots). Won't be missed.

How long before Podemos follows suit?

[Lumine]

What the heck were the voter flows like? Why did Puigdemont's party gain support while the separatist parties on the left lost instead? I guess C's voters probably moved to PP, but I'm having some trouble making sense of this all because I know little about Catalonian politics.

Never ask a woman her age,
Never ask a man his salary,
And never ask a Catalonian swing voter how he's voted since 2015

[Velasco]

Here you have the link to the wonderful precinct map released by eldiario.es

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/mapa-resultados-elecciones-catalunya-12m-calle-calle_1_11351385.html

In this thread Kiko Llaneras analyzes the profile of pro-independence voters, using CEO survey data.

https://twitter.com/kikollan/status/1789641875340534243?t=4Qhx1bGELpmugOX9RRkY4Q...

● Support for independence declines among the younger voters. In the 18-24 age group support for independence falls from 53% in 2015 to 39% in 2024

● Support for independence is stronger in the country areas. Pro-independence voters only prevail in municipalities with less than 10000 inhabitants

● Family origins are the best predictive factor on support for independence, which peaks among voters with two Catalan parents and declines among voters with both parents born outside Catalonia and voters born in other regions or countries

● Support for independence is higher among voters with middle-high and high incomes. Family origins can determine the level of income, for immigrants and their offspring are usually in the group with lower income. There is a correlation between higher income and support for independence given similar family origins

● There’s an obvious correlation between support for independence and identity feelings, even though the latter are comolex and nuanced

People identifying as ",only Catalan" falls from 29% in 2017 to 17% in 2024. People feeling "equally Catalan and Spaniard" rises from 35% to 44%

[Velasco]

Acting Catalan premier Pere Aragonès announced today he quits from "the political front line". Aragonès stated that ERC is not willing to facilitate the investiture of Illa.  On election day Aragonès said that PSC and Junts should reach an agreement as the winning forces. It seems that ERC is rrying to deal with a complicated situation, forced to make a decision on whether supporting Illa or triggering new elections. Both options are potentially suicidal for ERC.

Puigdemont persists in postulating his candidacy, even though there’s not a pro-independence majority in parliament. His pretense is forming a coalition government with ERC and he's seeking the PSC's abstention. On election night Puigdemont made veiled threats, warning that the Pedro Sánchez government depends on the Junts MPs in Congress. The truth is that Junts and ERC are tied to the PSOE intil the Amnesty Law is passed

The PP, on the other hand, avoided to campaign on ETA and Amnesty in the Basque Country and Catalonia. The results in Catalonia were good for them, even though Vox's strength remains. Now that the campaign is over, the PP will resume its war on amnesty. Additionally PP spokespersons claim that Pedro Sánchez will sacrifice Salvador Illa to Puigdemont's altar

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

All good data.

The immediate takeaway from such data is that things resemble Quebec a bit before the collapse of Independence-related polarization. The younger generations don't want to continue the fight that is bringing no results or benefits, leaving it as a battle still kept alive by the older generations. if allowed to progress then generational replacement might leave things in a similar spot, with the independence issue still alive but far below 50% - and their voters know it. Only time will tell if this trendline continues.

However, there is one key difference between Quebec and here - FPTP vs D'Hondt. Which means parties focused on Independence can still get a voice with 35% of supporters, whereas in FPTP they need allied voters who see the issue as dead.  Given which voter contingencies support the left, voter behavior shifts like this would hurt the Left-nationalists like ERC and CUP first. The older, more-rural, Right-nationalists have already formed their own identities in previous eras when the issue was the divide. That's even before we account for how the environment is squeezing the ERC votes.


Also, the most surprising part of the map IMO is PP winning scattered areas outside of the police/security dominated sections that always stand out for them or some other party like VOX and C's.

[Velasco]

The immediate takeaway from such data is that things resemble Quebec a bit before the collapse of Independence-related polarization. The younger generations don't want to continue the fight that is bringing no results or benefits, leaving it as a battle still kept alive by the older generations. if allowed to progress then generational replacement might leave things in a similar spot, with the independence issue still alive but far below 50% - and their voters know it. Only time will tell if this trendline continues.

However, there is one key difference between Quebec and here - FPTP vs D'Hondt. Which means parties focused on Independence can still get a voice with 35% of supporters, whereas in FPTP they need allied voters who see the issue as dead.  Given which voter contingencies support the left, voter behavior shifts like this would hurt the Left-nationalists like ERC and CUP first. The older, more-rural, Right-nationalists have already formed their own identities in previous eras when the issue was the divide. That's even before we account for how the environment is squeezing the ERC votes.


Also, the most surprising part of the map IMO is PP winning scattered areas outside of the police/security dominated sections that always stand out for them or some other party like VOX and C's.

The D'Hondt method itself does not favor pro-independence parties in Catalonia. It's the malapportionment (the over-representation of the less populated provinces) the factor that allowed pro-independence and nationalist majorities in Catalonia. Catalan parties never reached an agreement to pass a their own electoral law, so Catalonia is ruled by the general electoral regime ruling in Spain. The Spanish electoral law favors the rural and depopulated provinces to the detriment of the more populated  and urban ones - it was designed to favor the UCD in the beginnings of the Spanish transition to democracy. Malapportionment also plays a role in the Basque Country, rhe Canary Islands and other regions.

It's possible the situation in Catalonia evolves in a way resembling that of Quebec, but it's also possible the conflict reignites for whatever reason... time will tell.  By the moment I do hope Catalans will enjoy some political stability. What is certain is that the approach of Pedro Sánchez to the conflict in Catalonia has been more effective that that of Mariano Rajoy -I'm beginning to hear people opposing to pardons and amnesty admitting the facts, even though the Spanish Right and its associated nedia will never do that. We'll see whether the PP approaches to Junts and PNV in the future, or the PP-VOX alliance remains in place (the result of the upcoming EP elections could create conditions favoring a reactionary turn in Spain)

I noticed the PP came first in some precincts of Pedralbes or Sarria-Sant Gervasi. That's not very surprising, given that the wealthy neighbourhoods of uptown Barcelona are naturally conservative. Depending on the election these neighbourhoods voted for CiU, Junts, PP or Cs. Manuel Valls ,(backed by Cs) came first there in the 2019 local elections, while Xavier Trias (Junts) won in 2023
 

[Velasco]

I found a Sociométrica vote transfer analysis, according to it PSC and Junts net gains or losses were as follows

● PSC: 46.9k ERC, 12.6k Junts, -1.3k Vox, 30.5k Comuns, 2.5k CUP, 22.3k Cs, -19.6k PP, 144.2k Abstention

● Junts: -12.6k PSC, 75.4k ERC, -4.0k Vox, 0. -1.4k Comuns, 28.4k CUP, ~5.0k Cs, ~0 PP, 40.3k Abstention

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[Flyersfan232]

Acting Catalan premier Pere Aragonès announced today he quits from "the political front line". Aragonès stated that ERC is not willing to facilitate the investiture of Illa.  On election day Aragonès said that PSC and Junts should reach an agreement as the winning forces. It seems that ERC is rrying to deal with a complicated situation, forced to make a decision on whether supporting Illa or triggering new elections. Both options are potentially suicidal for ERC.

Puigdemont persists in postulating his candidacy, even though there’s not a pro-independence majority in parliament. His pretense is forming a coalition government with ERC and he's seeking the PSC's abstention. On election night Puigdemont made veiled threats, warning that the Pedro Sánchez government depends on the Junts MPs in Congress. The truth is that Junts and ERC are tied to the PSOE intil the Amnesty Law is passed

The PP, on the other hand, avoided to campaign on ETA and Amnesty in the Basque Country and Catalonia. The results in Catalonia were good for them, even though Vox's strength remains. Now that the campaign is over, the PP will resume its war on amnesty. Additionally PP spokespersons claim that Pedro Sánchez will sacrifice Salvador Illa to Puigdemont's altar

how long can pedro stall the Amnesty law?