We know that Cruz supports term limits, so he probably doesn't want to run for a third term (in 2024) and look like a hypocrite.
I doubt Ted Cruz of all people cares about looking like a hypocrite. If he's going to have a hard fought election regardless I'm sure he'd much rather it be for president than Senate, particularly because the Senate was nothing more than a stepping stone for him to begin with.
She was first nominated by Republican Primary voters in South Carolina lol
South Carolina is more establishmenty than you give credit for. Plenty of mainline Republicans live there, it's not just racist Trump supporters.
Plus 2024 is not 2010. Fact is Haley was a decent fit for the party 5-10 years ago, she isn't now though.