2022 conference realignment (7/6 rumors: Big 12 to add 4-6 Pac-12 teams?)

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Hard to imagine Berkeley sharing a conference with BYU. I think they'd de-emphasize sports sooner. Big Ten or bust for them - bust being the Pac-12/MWC merger that excludes SJSU, Wyoming and maybe 1-2 others. Oregon State and Washington State become more like the Utah State program nationally, though perhaps not as good immediately. That's all they deserve to be.

A rump PAC-3 with Cal, WSU, and OSU would still probably have their choice of MWC schools, but I don't think they would immediately grab more than 6, just because the others aren't really ready for a PAC call up. Wyo and USU don't have the market, Nevada and SJSU don't have the support or facilities, and Hawaii and New Mexico have potential but have had recent issues with support/facilities/success that would probably keep them out at first, plus travel issues. I guess that would leave your new PAC-9:

California
Washington St.
Oregon St.
Boise St.
San Diego St.
Fresno St.
UNLV
Colorado St.
Air Force

As a Fresno St. fan I'd love to see it, despite knowing that there are huge destabilizing forces within the conference that would demand constant concessions and look to depart immediately, and it's not just Boise this time.

Hawaii is land grant university with a fine football tradition that is just totally screwed by travel issues.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hard to imagine Berkeley sharing a conference with BYU. I think they'd de-emphasize sports sooner. Big Ten or bust for them - bust being the Pac-12/MWC merger that excludes SJSU, Wyoming and maybe 1-2 others. Oregon State and Washington State become more like the Utah State program nationally, though perhaps not as good immediately. That's all they deserve to be.

A rump PAC-3 with Cal, WSU, and OSU would still probably have their choice of MWC schools, but I don't think they would immediately grab more than 6, just because the others aren't really ready for a PAC call up. Wyo and USU don't have the market, Nevada and SJSU don't have the support or facilities, and Hawaii and New Mexico have potential but have had recent issues with support/facilities/success that would probably keep them out at first, plus travel issues. I guess that would leave your new PAC-9:

California
Washington St.
Oregon St.
Boise St.
San Diego St.
Fresno St.
UNLV
Colorado St.
Air Force

As a Fresno St. fan I'd love to see it, despite knowing that there are huge destabilizing forces within the conference that would demand constant concessions and look to depart immediately, and it's not just Boise this time.

Hawaii is land grant university with a fine football tradition that is just totally screwed by travel issues.

It's mostly the lack of a stadium these days, otherwise they'd be a frontrunner.

[dead0man]

The ACC is tough to break since it’s (terrible) media contract guarantees all revenue from its current schools stays with the conference until 2036. Whoever took an ACC program would be committing itself to a fiscal deadweight until then.

There's always a way out of everything. I believe it takes 10 (?) votes to change the ACC financial rules, so the Big 10 and SEC could offer slots to 5 teams each.

I don't know that they will or they should, but something like this seems possible:
Big 10 - Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse, Georgia Tech (would the SEC agree to let the Big 10 into Atlanta? Maybe Miami instead)
SEC - Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami (or Georgia Tech)

You could also see Pitt going to either, Louisville to the SEC, and obviously either would crawl over broken glass to take Notre Dame.

Doesn't the Big 10 have some education/research qualifications?  Can Miami meet those?

[7,052,770]

The ACC is tough to break since it’s (terrible) media contract guarantees all revenue from its current schools stays with the conference until 2036. Whoever took an ACC program would be committing itself to a fiscal deadweight until then.

There's always a way out of everything. I believe it takes 10 (?) votes to change the ACC financial rules, so the Big 10 and SEC could offer slots to 5 teams each.

I don't know that they will or they should, but something like this seems possible:
Big 10 - Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse, Georgia Tech (would the SEC agree to let the Big 10 into Atlanta? Maybe Miami instead)
SEC - Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami (or Georgia Tech)

You could also see Pitt going to either, Louisville to the SEC, and obviously either would crawl over broken glass to take Notre Dame.

Doesn't the Big 10 have some education/research qualifications?  Can Miami meet those?

Not sure exactly on research, but in the USNWR (which are not the only rankings, nor are they gospel) has Miami as the #55 university in America, which is a little bit worse than Purdue and Ohio State and a little bit better than Maryland, Penn State, and Rutgers.

[dead0man]

The ACC is tough to break since it’s (terrible) media contract guarantees all revenue from its current schools stays with the conference until 2036. Whoever took an ACC program would be committing itself to a fiscal deadweight until then.

There's always a way out of everything. I believe it takes 10 (?) votes to change the ACC financial rules, so the Big 10 and SEC could offer slots to 5 teams each.

I don't know that they will or they should, but something like this seems possible:
Big 10 - Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse, Georgia Tech (would the SEC agree to let the Big 10 into Atlanta? Maybe Miami instead)
SEC - Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami (or Georgia Tech)

You could also see Pitt going to either, Louisville to the SEC, and obviously either would crawl over broken glass to take Notre Dame.

Doesn't the Big 10 have some education/research qualifications?  Can Miami meet those?

Not sure exactly on research, but in the USNWR (which are not the only rankings, nor are they gospel) has Miami as the #55 university in America, which is a little bit worse than Purdue and Ohio State and a little bit better than Maryland, Penn State, and Rutgers.

Nice.  I'm probably just holding on to biases of "the U" in the 80s-90s.

Browsing through the list, I see Nebraska is far below all of them, embarrassingly enough.  Even Missouri is higher.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There are a bunch of rumors flying around today that the Big 12 will meet tomorrow and invite Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State.

[7,052,770]

There are a bunch of rumors flying around today that the Big 12 will meet tomorrow and invite Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State.

And then we're left with a Pac-6, although with it have some desirable programs left. I think at that point the best bet is for those 6 to merge with the Mountain West, but with an escape clause for all of them that lets them leave at no penalty.

How would our fans of those Pac-6 schools feel about this? Would Stanford have a total meltdown and drop athletics altogether? Would they want to expand it to include Rice or even a high quality public like UCSD or UC Davis?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

There are a bunch of rumors flying around today that the Big 12 will meet tomorrow and invite Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State.

And then we're left with a Pac-6, although with it have some desirable programs left. I think at that point the best bet is for those 6 to merge with the Mountain West, but with an escape clause for all of them that lets them leave at no penalty.

How would our fans of those Pac-6 schools feel about this? Would Stanford have a total meltdown and drop athletics altogether? Would they want to expand it to include Rice or even a high quality public like UCSD or UC Davis?

It's widely expected that Oregon and Washington (maybe Stanford too) will be headed to the Big Ten in the next few weeks.  That leaves just Wazzu, Oregon State, and Cal.

[sparkey]

And then we're left with a Pac-6, although with it have some desirable programs left. I think at that point the best bet is for those 6 to merge with the Mountain West, but with an escape clause for all of them that lets them leave at no penalty.

How would our fans of those Pac-6 schools feel about this? Would Stanford have a total meltdown and drop athletics altogether? Would they want to expand it to include Rice or even a high quality public like UCSD or UC Davis?

Stanford ending up in a conference with San Jose St. would be proof of a just God and all would be right with the world. Of course it will never happen, a rump PAC will pick off the MWC rather than merge with it, and they would rank San Jose St. as 12th most valuable of 12 MWC schools.

[Donerail]

And then we're left with a Pac-6, although with it have some desirable programs left. I think at that point the best bet is for those 6 to merge with the Mountain West, but with an escape clause for all of them that lets them leave at no penalty.

How would our fans of those Pac-6 schools feel about this? Would Stanford have a total meltdown and drop athletics altogether? Would they want to expand it to include Rice or even a high quality public like UCSD or UC Davis?

the most successful collegiate sports program in the country is not going to "drop athletics altogether." Come on now.

That said, Stanford will go independent or possibly drop to FCS before we regularly play SJSU or Utah State or whatever other truck stop teams are in that league now. Just a total non-starter.

[RINO Tom]

The ACC is tough to break since it’s (terrible) media contract guarantees all revenue from its current schools stays with the conference until 2036. Whoever took an ACC program would be committing itself to a fiscal deadweight until then.

There's always a way out of everything. I believe it takes 10 (?) votes to change the ACC financial rules, so the Big 10 and SEC could offer slots to 5 teams each.

I don't know that they will or they should, but something like this seems possible:
Big 10 - Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse, Georgia Tech (would the SEC agree to let the Big 10 into Atlanta? Maybe Miami instead)
SEC - Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami (or Georgia Tech)

You could also see Pitt going to either, Louisville to the SEC, and obviously either would crawl over broken glass to take Notre Dame.

Doesn't the Big 10 have some education/research qualifications?  Can Miami meet those?

Not sure exactly on research, but in the USNWR (which are not the only rankings, nor are they gospel) has Miami as the #55 university in America, which is a little bit worse than Purdue and Ohio State and a little bit better than Maryland, Penn State, and Rutgers.

Nice.  I'm probably just holding on to biases of "the U" in the 80s-90s.

Browsing through the list, I see Nebraska is far below all of them, embarrassingly enough.  Even Missouri is higher.

The “official” or “unofficial” (not sure of the technicalities) policy was always that the Big Ten wanted only AAU members for the insane research funds, and Nebraska actually WAS AAU when we took them.  They lost that status after the fact.

[Donerail]

Nice.  I'm probably just holding on to biases of "the U" in the 80s-90s.

Browsing through the list, I see Nebraska is far below all of them, embarrassingly enough.  Even Missouri is higher.

The “official” or “unofficial” (not sure of the technicalities) policy was always that the Big Ten wanted only AAU members for the insane research funds, and Nebraska actually WAS AAU when we took them.  They lost that status after the fact.

That has always been the unofficial policy but there has always been a carveout for "unless the money is right." Notre Dame's not an AAU member and they could have joined whenever they wanted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rumors are now that the Big 12 is in discussions with "four to six" Pac-12 teams, although only Utah, Colorado, and the Arizonas have been named.  I'm guessing the other two are Oregon and Washington, if they don't get into the Big Ten.

[RINO Tom]

^ There’s a reason I’m not in the decision rooms, but I think the Big Ten only expands again if ND bites, and I think they’ll add ONE more to get to 18.  No sense in adding more mouths to feed unless they increase the size of the pie … 20 isn’t inherently better than 18, and it’s not like the AL was at a disadvantage all of those years that they had two fewer teams than the NL - and that’s how I see this ending with the Big Ten and SEC effectively being two “leagues” rather than “conferences.”

[GeorgiaModerate]

^ There’s a reason I’m not in the decision rooms, but I think the Big Ten only expands again if ND bites, and I think they’ll add ONE more to get to 18.  No sense in adding more mouths to feed unless they increase the size of the pie … 20 isn’t inherently better than 18, and it’s not like the AL was at a disadvantage all of those years that they had two fewer teams than the NL - and that’s how I see this ending with the Big Ten and SEC effectively being two “leagues” rather than “conferences.”

The one advantage I see to 20 teams over 18 is that it allows for a fairly easy scheduling setup.  There could be four divisions of five teams each.  Each team plays its four division mates every year, two home and two away; plays one team from each of the other three divisions each year, rotating through those divisions; and a "traditional opponent" in another division that they play every year, e.g. Notre Dame and USC.  That's eight conference games, leaving room for a few non-conference.  There would be a two-game playoff among the division winners (semifinals and conference championship).

[7,052,770]

Imagine a 24-team Big 10 and a 24-team SEC, each divided into 4 divisions of 6.

Everyone plays a 13-game schedule: 5 against their division, rotate 2 of the teams of the other 3 divisions, have one permanent (or semi-permanent) opponent out of the division, and play 1 game against the other conference.

Then, each conference takes 4-8 teams to a playoff, with the winners of each bracket squaring off for the national championship in the Rose Bowl.

[NewYorkExpress]

The ACC is tough to break since it’s (terrible) media contract guarantees all revenue from its current schools stays with the conference until 2036. Whoever took an ACC program would be committing itself to a fiscal deadweight until then.

There's always a way out of everything. I believe it takes 10 (?) votes to change the ACC financial rules, so the Big 10 and SEC could offer slots to 5 teams each.

I don't know that they will or they should, but something like this seems possible:
Big 10 - Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse, Georgia Tech (would the SEC agree to let the Big 10 into Atlanta? Maybe Miami instead)
SEC - Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami (or Georgia Tech)

You could also see Pitt going to either, Louisville to the SEC, and obviously either would crawl over broken glass to take Notre Dame.

Doesn't the Big 10 have some education/research qualifications?  Can Miami meet those?

Not sure exactly on research, but in the USNWR (which are not the only rankings, nor are they gospel) has Miami as the #55 university in America, which is a little bit worse than Purdue and Ohio State and a little bit better than Maryland, Penn State, and Rutgers.

Nice.  I'm probably just holding on to biases of "the U" in the 80s-90s.

Browsing through the list, I see Nebraska is far below all of them, embarrassingly enough.  Even Missouri is higher.

The “official” or “unofficial” (not sure of the technicalities) policy was always that the Big Ten wanted only AAU members for the insane research funds, and Nebraska actually WAS AAU when we took them.  They lost that status after the fact.

The Big Ten wouldn't be interested in kicking Nebraska over to the SEC for Vanderbilt, would they?

[Donerail]

No, the Big Ten would not be interested in expelling Nebraska or adding Vanderbilt.

[7,052,770]

The third "power conference" ?



There are plenty of Mountain West schools still out there as replacements if anyone jumps ship to the SEC or Big 10. They still need to find a way to dump the 3 Eastern schools if they can.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The third "power conference" ?



There are plenty of Mountain West schools still out there as replacements if anyone jumps ship to the SEC or Big 10. They still need to find a way to dump the 3 Eastern schools if they can.

The ACC would be the natural geographic fit.  If they need a fourth to go along, add USF or Memphis.