Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary - 20 October 2007

[Kevinstat]

Now Forti leads Alexander by 2,456 votes

[Kevinstat]

Incumbent Insurance Commissioner Donelion up to 50.52% (rounds to 51% now) with 3760/3967 (94.78%) precincts reporting.

[Kevinstat]

And Forti's lead balloons to over 2K (2,107 votes) again with 3813/3967 precincts in

[Kevinstat]

Alexander back in second now, up 115 over Forti.  Didn't surprise me when I took a look at the results from parishes with precincts outstanding.  It's tough at least for me to control what results (multiparish, a given parish, results for a given race by parish, etc.) I'm shown.

[Kevinstat]

Alexander up by 1,007 now with 52 precincts outstanding.

[Kevinstat]

I'm not sure.  The Insurance Commissioner race is over though I'd say.  Donelion up 13,620 over all opponents combined with 50.59% with 52 precincts left last I checked.

[Kevinstat]

With 25 precincts left, Alexander is ahead of Foti by almost 3,800 votes.  I think that one's done.

I agree.

[Kevinstat]

No new precincts in that I have seen, but Forti would have to lead Alexander by over 51% in the remaining precincts to catch up if the number of voters voting per precinct are the same in the remaining precincts.  I don't see that happening.

[Kevinstat]

It will be Caldwell v. Alexander in the AG runoff.  Forti would have to lead Alexander by about 236.48% in those five precincts to catch him.

Darn.  Couldn't call it first.  Oh well.

[Kevinstat]

Not that it matters one iota, but 4 of the 5 remaining precincts are in St. Tammany Parish with the fifth in Madison Parish.

Okay now just that one in Madison remaining

[Kevinstat]

Could someone tell me what the popular image was of the political ideologies of the three candidates for Attorney General?  Did Caldwell run to Forti's right or his left?  Or was Forti just corrupt and that's why he had a credible intra-party challenger?  Or was he not corrupt enough?  (This is Louisiana we're talking about .)  Was Alexander generally perceived as more conservative than the two Democrats?  What were their positions on tort reform, a big issue for state AGs (or As G for Attorneys General?) in some states?

Looking to the runoff election, how high a percentage of Forti supporters do people think will vote for Caldwell in the runoff?  Will a fair amount not show up for the runoff election?  In the interest of what might of been, who would Alexander supporters (or Caldwell supporters, as a swing of 0.9% from Caldwell to Alexander and 1.4% from Caldwell to Forti would have resulted in Caldwell's elimination) have likely supported in the runoff if their favored candidate had been eliminated?

I'll appreciate whatever answers to these questions people can provide.  And differing points of view and bickering are welcome!

[Kevinstat]

Whenever I've said Forti in this thread, I've meant Foti obviously.

[Kevinstat]

So I take it there are no inter-party contests where the incumbent party's candidate neither came in first yesterday nor had his or her party receive a majority of the district's vote.  That would be the case most likely to result in a pickup where a intra-party contest still exists.  Still, I agree with your analysis of what in general are the most likely cases for pickups among those cases that exist this year.

[Corrected "intra-party" to "inter-party"]