International COVID-19 Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, good to know that - unlike Hungary - checks and balances are still sort of working in Poland.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Pray for Boris.  😥

Why him and not Bolsonaro? Where's the poetic justice in this?

Bolso could have shot himself up with hydroxychloroquine and everybody would have won.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to a continuing survey of the University of Mannheim, support for a curfew in Germany has dropped from a peak of 50.9% on March 26 to 32.9% on April 6. Support for cancelling public events, closing public buildings and keeping the borders shut remains high at ca. 90% across the board, but the curfew number are in free fall.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the Chinese agriculture ministry plans to ban the eating of dogs.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/09/china-signals-end-to-dog-meat-consumption-by-humans

[Middle-aged Europe]

Appears that the number of infected people in Germany declines. Some days ago it stood at 69,000, now it's at 65,000. Over 46,000 have recovered (2,349 deaths).

As Merkel said today in her press conference, further restrictions don't seem to be necessary. And as health minister Spahn said today, an easing of the restrictions could soon be possible provided that they're continued to be complied with over the Easter holidays.

However, Merkel also implied that different German states could ease restrictions at very different speeds and in very different manners. This is probably in reference to Armin Laschet of North Rhine-Westphalia for whom not a day goes by where he doesn't talk about his impatience regarding the ending of restrictions, while hardline virus fighter Markus Söder of Bavaria is lingering at the opposite side of the spectrum.

Early next week, the Leopoldina - the German national academy of science - is expected to make their recommendations with regards to a gradual exit from the restrictions. On Wednesday next week there will be another federal-state governments video conference to discuss the current state of epidemic and the Leopoldina recommendations. But as indicated above it may be actually result in a "we agree to disagree" this time around.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ugh...

French police turn back private jet of holidaymakers from UK

Party of 10 flew into Marseille-Provence airport to be taken by helicopter to luxury Cannes villa


A group of would-be holidaymakers who flew in a private jet from London to the Côte d’Azur in France have been turned back by police.

Seven men and three women arrived on the chartered aircraft to Marseille-Provence airport, where helicopters were waiting to fly them on to Cannes, where they had rented a luxury villa.

The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25, were refused permission to enter France and ordered by police to fly back to the UK.

“They were coming for a holiday in Cannes and three helicopters were waiting on the tarmac,” a border police spokesperson told Agence France-Presse. “We notified them they were not allowed to enter the national territory and they left four hours later.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/french-police-turn-back-private-jet-of-holidaymakers-from-uk

[Middle-aged Europe]

Angela Merkel and the minister-presidents of the sixteen states will hold a videoconference today to discuss the next steps.

However, an internal paper of the federal government has already been leaked beforehand. According to this paper, shops up to a size of 400 square meters could be allowed to open again on April 20. Businesses with a size up to 2,500 square meters would follow on May 4, as would hairdressers. Also extended until May 4 would be the "contact restrictions" which basically limit your social contacts to one person at a time in the public. Restaurants and bars would remain closed for the time being though.

It's still unclear whether there will be a consensus on the opening of schools, kindergartens, and universities. North Rhine-Westphalia wants to open its schools on April 20 again, while other states like Bavaria would want to wait a little while longer.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Update from Germany: Merkel and heads of the states have agreed to extend the contact ban to May 4. However, stores under 800 square meters will be reopened on April 20 (next Monday). Book stores and car dealers will be opened as well. Barber shops will reopen on May 4 under "increased hygiene standards".

Face masks in public are not required per se, but recommended for public transportation. Furthermore, schools will be reopened in part, starting with higher classes.

Big events such as concerts are banned until August 31 so far.

The school re-openings are scheduled for May 4 too.

Like bookstores and car dealers, bicycle dealers are exempted from the 800 square meters restriction for businesses and can reopen irrespective of their size.

What's also allowed to reopen now are libraries and archives.

The ban on large public events (probably) means that soccer games will be resumed, but without any spectators in the stadiums until at least next fall.

Religious services remain banned (except via livestream) - this was met with immediate criticism from the chairman of the German (Catholic) Bishops' Conference, and he and other religious leaders plan to meet with the Interior Ministry on Friday to discuss loosening of restrictions in that area.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Jair Bolsonaro has fired his health minister Luiz Mandetta.

Reason: Mandetta did too good a job in fighting coronavirus.

Well, strictly speaking Bolsonaro is a prominent member of the "coronavirus is no worse than the flu, we can take unproven anti-malaria meds against it" faction, while Mandetta belongs to the "this is serious, we need more social distancing" camp. Ultimately, this was also the resason for the dismissal. I guess Brazil is proper f***ked as a country  now, kind like a Italy of the southern hemisphere but with a Trump at the helm instead of Conte.

[Middle-aged Europe]

German health minister Jens Spahn has declared the lockdown a success and that the current situation is "increasingly controllable". According to Germany's equivalent to the CDC - the Robert Koch Institute - the virus currently has a basic reproduction number of 0.7 in Germany.

As far as I am concerned, I've got news that - subject to contrary decisions the government may take over the next two weeks - my semi-mandatory "work from home" rule will be discontinued starting May 4.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Michael Kretschmar's (CDU) Saxony becomes the first German state to introduce mandatory face-mask wearing in public transports and shops (although a scarf is also sufficient). The state also allows religious services again, but they remain limited to 15 people.

Somewhat ironically, the Left Party-governed state of Thuringia was quick to join Saxony in allowing religious services again, but with a more generous restriction of 30 people in closed buildings and 50 people in the open.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Good news for Germans:

They will probably be able to vacation in Austria during the summer.

We will very likely open the borders for Germany only (+maybe Eastern Europeans) and keep the travel ban in place for all other Europeans.

https://orf.at/stories/3162401

I'm not that much of a mountain guy, so the only place worth going to for me is probably Vienna and I already have been there in 2017. I'm strongly considering a vacation in Germany this year... that is as soon as you're allowed to go someplace again (well, with the exception of the states of Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern you're still technically allowed to go someplace, it's just that you're not allowed to book a hotel/pension/etc. there).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Bavariageddon: This year's Oktoberfest has been cancelled!

Previously, the Oktoberfest had been cancelled in 1854 and 1873 due to Cholera outbreaks (and a couple of other times due to wars being fought).

[Middle-aged Europe]

A vaccine for COVID-19?

We need to be prepared for the eventuality of never having one.

Professor Ian Frazer explains:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616

Yeah, this is a seriously underrated possibility in my view. I feel like we really need an exit plan for what to do if this situation does happen.

Accept that people will continue to regularly die of the virus. Build more ICUs. Train more medical personnel. Maintain low-level restrictions for society on a more permanent basis (emphasis on low-level like a ban on public gatherings and events with more than 50-100 people, although I'd also expect that we become exactly like the East Asian countries in the matter of wearing masks in public).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Furthermore, more German states require wearing masks in public transportation and stores, including my state of Baden-Württemberg. The requirement was announced today and become effective next Monday. Cloths and scarves are accepted as well. Hope I can get one for a price that isn't totally absurd. Was in a store today, three pieces were 14€, which is kinda crazy considering these very simple masks have production costs of a few cents. For going to the supermarket once or twice a week, I'll take my scarf.

All German states have now made covering you face in public transportation and/or supermarkets mandatory. Interestingly, this wasn't part of the federal-state deal from last week. This was more than of these state-level domino effects. Once you reach the critical mass everyone does it.

I haf ordered myself a couple of masks last week, but I still waiting from them to arrive. But I've also heard that they're pretty uncomfortable to wear after a while anyway. Yesterday, I used a scarf in the subway.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merkel made a speech in the Bundestag today, where she in pretty clear terms admonished the State Premiers who were opening up too fast. She is hardly known for her combative approach, but that speech, even if he wasn't mentioned by name, was basically a broadside against Armin Laschet. He is the Premier of the State of NRW, as well as the front-runner to succeed Merkel, and has continuously been the most outspoken opponent of harsher measures against the Virus and in favour of reopening the economy faster than others. Traditionally he is a close ally of Merkel, while Markus Söder, Premier of Bravaria, and the one with the most Hardline approach is a rival, and the two openly had an argument about it, but nonetheless this was a pretty clear attack against Laschet.

This could have a potentially big Impact on the race to succeed Merkel. Laschet has come under fire a lot lately, not just from Merkel, for a approach percieved by many as reckless, while Söder has become very popular (but he has not been seen as interested in running). However business groups have a very strong influence in the CDU, and his approach will help him curry favour with them (most likely the main reason for it). He is also running on a ticket with Health Minister Spahn, whose popularity has been boosted throughout this Crisis, so that is also likely to help him.

In terms of Legacy, Merkels scientific (she is one herself, you see) and, apparently successful, approach has more or less repaired her popularity and her stateswomen-like Image, beyond anything she lost during the Refugee Crisis. She still has a year to go, but if everything stays as is, she will, justified or not, likely be viewed in German history very positively.

In English: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/german-states-lifting-lockdowns-too-quickly-warns-merkel-coronavirus

It's not just Laschet, although he's certainly the most prominent of the bunch. For instance, it was also reported today that Laschet's NRW had formed an alliance with Baden-Württemberg and Lower Saxony to push for further lifting of restrictions, especially with regards to restaurants.
Merkel on the other hand tried to slow things way down, by pushing the date at which further liftings will be decided on back from April 30 to May 6. The one on April 30 has merely become an "evaluation" meeting now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As the Berlin Police reports, there has been a sharp increase in illegal street races since the shutdown began. Last year, there had been 400 such prosecutions. Last month, there have been 100. Which probably can attributed to a) the streets being a whole lot emptier and b) bars, clubs, gyms and other venues street racers may otherwise have been frequented being closed (as are professional soccer games). Who knew that a pandemic would turn the city into a cross between The Fast and the Furious and Mad Max :
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/corona-raser-nutzen-leere-strassen-zahl-der-illegalen-autorennen-in-berlin-nimmt-drastisch-zu/25794944.html

Meanwhile, anti-lockdown protests have taken place today in the city of Stuttgart with up to 5,000 people attending. For some reason, Stuttgart has become the center of the German anti-lockdown movement alongside Berlin. Well, at least they're not carrying assault rifles...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Attila Hildmann, successful author of vegan cookbooks and former participant in various German reality TV shows, has announced on Facebook that he will arm himself and go into the underground, citing the Robert Koch Institute President's supposed affiliation with the freemasons and Bill Gates' secret plan to erect a global forced vaccination regime as some of his main reasons. Hildmann is assumed to be the latest case in a string of German celebrities who have gone insane over the coronavirus lockdown.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The new Robert Koch Institute numbers are a bit worrisome, although there's still hope that they turn out to be a statistical fluke (we already had a similar one a while back).

On the other hand, it wouldn't be totally implausible if infection rates are on the rise again. On May 1, before most of the recent restriction liftings hadn't even taken effect, I was on a stroll in a park in Berlin. I witnessed a larger group of people playing table tennis there, another group of maybe six or seven people was getting very close to each other to make a selfie of themselves. A group of maybe four police officers were walking by, not doing or saying anything despite the fact that both aforementioned groups were in violation of standing ordinances. Maybe a month earlier, the police would have approached them and asked them to disperse. But now, nobody was giving a sh**t any longer. There's definitely a bit of a "well, we tried the restriction thing out for a while, but enough is enough and from now on we just let it run its course" attitude going around.

At the same time, anti-lockdown protest have gotten larger and angrier in Germany, despite the fact that the restrictions continue to be progressively lifted. I can remember a least three or four seperate reports of incidents where journalists were physically assaulted by such protesters. If they're that aggressive now, what would happen in case of a second, even more severe infection wave which leads to a complete reconsitution of restrictions? It would potentially be a powder keg waiting to explode.

Now, I don't want to sound like an alarmist. I'm just painting the worst-case scenario. So, let's hope of the R figure is nothing more than a statisitical fluke again.

[Middle-aged Europe]

All completely illegally, of course, but it's not as if the police gives a crap about enforcement anymore.

Well, trying to disperse a couple of thousands of protesters by force could turn ugly very quickly... and it wouldn't really help invalidating the "oppresive police state" argument of the protesters either. So the question is if this is the kind of pictures the government wants in the evening news.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Robert Koch Institute has explained that the slightly increased R factor of 1.x in Germany is a result of the daily new infections having reached a plateau. To avoid panic reactions over R factor fluctuations in the future they have announced plans to release statistically adjusted weekly R factor numbers which wouldn't fluctuate that strongly. (And using that adjusted measurement retroactively the R factor wasn't actually above 1 during last week.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany also had a string of major outbreaks in slaughterhouses recently which apparently serve now as the main sources of new infections.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A bit of dissonance in Germany.

Thuringia plans to discontinue all remaining state-wide anti-Corona restrictions by June 6, replacing them with local measures as needed only. Minister-president Bodo Ramelow (Left) received a lot of flak for that, especially from CDU/SPD/Green politicians from the federal level, but also some colleagues like Bavarian minister-president Markus Söder (CSU), accusing Ramelow of being negligent. However, Michael Kretschmer's (CDU) Saxony was quick in joining Thuringia today, and I wouldn't be surprisef if other eastern states like Saxony-Anhalt will follow. The east had some of the lowest infection numbers, but also increasing anti-lockdown protests recently, therefore they're starting to break formation now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Baden-Württemberg's minister-president Winfried Kretschmann (Greens):
From now, fighting coronavirus is entirely a state issue. Further conferences with the Chancellor are not planned.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The German federal government and the 16 state governments have agreed on a "final" coronavirus restrictions compact. Final because they don't happen to agree on much anymore.

Social distancing is extended until June 29, but also weakened down to "private gatherings of 10 people max in the public or in appartments and we strongly urge anyone to opt for public instead of appartments". States are free to deviate from that guideline and Thuringia (which will discontinue all social distancing rules by June 6), Lower Saxony and Hesse (which will keep stricter rules than that in place) have already announced to do so. Mandatory mask wearing in public transportation and shops is also extended until June 29.

A couple of states are also planning to reopen cinemas, theatres, gyms and so on, but that's not in the compact, but completely the states' prerogative.