International COVID-19 Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Big if true.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The first German states have started to close their schools: Bavaria, Saarland, Berlin, Lower Saxony. More if not all will probably follow soon.

The Bundesliga has now decided to suspend all the soccer matches for two and a half weeks after they had at first continued the season without spectators. However, several players from Hannover 96 had been tested positive on coronavirus now.

Confirmed infections: 3,000.
NRW: 1,264, Bavaria: 500, Baden-Württemberg: 454, Berlin: 158, Lower Saxony: 129.
Six people have died.

[Middle-aged Europe]

3,640 confirmed infections in Germany, 1,433 of them in North Rhine-Westphalia.
Eight people have died.

In Berlin, kindergartens, schools, universities, theatres, operas, museums, swimming pools, pubs, and clubs have either been completely shut down or will be until Tuesday.

In the supermarket I was just in, sh**t's getting real. Soap and noodles are out as are at least 60% of all canned food. Toilet paper's still available but the staff is barely keeping up with restocking the shelves.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In soccer news, it is at this point seen as all but given that the 2020 European Football Championship will be postponed until 2021 by the UEFA.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Unfortunately, Spain is on its way to become the second Italy:
6,023 confirmed infections, 191 deaths.
An increase by almost 2,000 infections within a day.

Italy: 17,660 confirmed infections, 1,266 deaths.

Germany: 4,110 confirmed infections (1,636 in NRW), still only eight deaths.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In Berlin, kindergartens, schools, universities, theatres, operas, museums, swimming pools, pubs, and clubs have either been completely shut down or will be until Tuesday.

Berlin has just extended these shutdowns to cinemas, all kinds of sports venues including gyms, and bordellos (*lol*). They're also effective immediately and not on Tuesday.

Public and non-public assemblies with more than 50 attendees are also banned.

Exempted are only restaurants, snack bars, and non-smoking cafés because they're providing food to the population. However, there are legal requirements regarding the minimum distance between tables.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The head of the German Robert Koch Institute has just said that the implemented restrictions for the public life could "in an extreme scenario" last two years.

Obviously, this would in practice probably not be sustainable IMO or otherwise it could cause a literal revolution (or unless elections aren't suspended a political party which promises a lifting of the restrictions could outright win). The longer this draws out the more support the "just let the old farts just die" movement would probably gain traction. More than two months of this and there's gonna be blood in the streets.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany:

9,352 confirmed infections
- 3,375 in North Rhine-Westphalia
- 1,641 in Baden-Württemberg
- 1,352 in Bavaria
Death toll: 24 (all in the aforementioned three states except one, who died in Hamburg)



Italy:

31,506 confirmed infections
Death toll: 2,503

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany has surpassed 10,000 infections today. Currently 11,302 confirmed infections and 27 deaths.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I do think if the world and everything in it has to go into lockdown for a year to fight a disease that really doesn't affect many under the age of 50, but cuts like a knife through butter amongst the over 70's that there will be potential riots if not outright revolution unless those who are of working age are adequately secured/compensated by massive economic reform in their favour if they are to sacrifice (for many another) a decade of their working life and years of their social life. Otherwise, as an earlier poster said 'just let the olds die' won't be something said ironically.

The problem with this perspective, and most such perspectives centred round the idea of general conflict, is that most of us have at least one relative over the age of 70 that we're fond of.

You cannot deliver any political agenda if you base it around the premise that it will hurt people's grandparents. Even the converse doesn't work - many conservative parties seek the votes of the elderly with policies that implicitly or explicitly hurt the young, but to the extent this is admitted it tends to come with an assurance that this is for their own good.

While this is true, one shouldn't underestimate human beings' abilities to ignore rational thought and reconcile seemingly contradictoray beliefs with each other in order to see the world how they want it to see it, especially under extreme duress. Granted, an outright and open "let the olds die" movement might not be able to win any majority. But what if someone starts to soften it down a bit, making it more ambiguous..

After months of lockdown, you'll probably start to find a number of people who'd at least secretly agree to a statement like: I don't really care anymore how many are dying as long as only my own grandparents are safe.

On a more complex level it could amount to: you're the damn government, it's your responsibility to come up with an alternative solution that both protects the vulnerable and lets the rest of us return to our normal lifes and if you're unable to do so maybe that shows that we need a different system of government now.

A revolution doesn't need to propose any actual constructive solution, it only needs to be a form of protest against something... an outburst of discontent.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I do think if the world and everything in it has to go into lockdown for a year to fight a disease that really doesn't affect many under the age of 50, but cuts like a knife through butter amongst the over 70's that there will be potential riots if not outright revolution unless those who are of working age are adequately secured/compensated by massive economic reform in their favour if they are to sacrifice (for many another) a decade of their working life and years of their social life. Otherwise, as an earlier poster said 'just let the olds die' won't be something said ironically.

The problem with this perspective, and most such perspectives centred round the idea of general conflict, is that most of us have at least one relative over the age of 70 that we're fond of.

You cannot deliver any political agenda if you base it around the premise that it will hurt people's grandparents. Even the converse doesn't work - many conservative parties seek the votes of the elderly with policies that implicitly or explicitly hurt the young, but to the extent this is admitted it tends to come with an assurance that this is for their own good.

While this is true, one shouldn't underestimate human beings' abilities to ignore rational thought and reconcile seemingly contradictoray beliefs with each other in order to see the world how they want it to see it, especially under extreme duress. Granted, an outright and open "let the olds die" movement might not be able to win any majority. But what if someone starts to soften it down a bit, making it more ambiguous..

After months of lockdown, you'll probably start to find a number of people who'd at least secretly agree to a statement like: I don't really care anymore how many are dying as long as only my own grandparents are safe.

On a more complex level it could amount to: you're the damn government, it's your responsibility to come up with an alternative solution that both protects the vulnerable and lets the rest of us return to our normal lifes and if you're unable to do so maybe that shows that we need a different system of government now.

A revolution doesn't need to propose any actual constructive solution, it only needs to be a form of protest against something... an outburst of discontent.

Maybe to further elaborate on how I arrived at my line of thought, because I think that's still severely underestimated... as a few of you may know part my dayjob includes the communication with your Average Joe Sixpack via e-mails and social media.

An increasingly frequent argument I'm confronted with in recent days would go like this: You're about to cause another Great Depression (not Recession) in a noble, but misguided attempt to save 80-year-old people's which ultimately may prove to be ill-fated and pointless anyway. In the flu season of 2017/18 a total of 25,000 people died in Germany. Now we have still less than 30 deaths in the country, but back in 2017/18 you didn't initiate the collapse of our economy over it. So, why now?

I expect messages like that to further increase in numbers the longer this drags on. And personally, I find the aforementioned argument harder to repudiate than, let's say, your usual climate change denial (althoug I still try to...). So, unless we give everyone a crash course in epidiomology fast sh**t is gonna hit the fan eventually.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Update: Germany will not issue a complete lockdown similar to Italy or Spain, but Chancellor Merkel and heads of state government have agreed to impose a so-called "contact ban". That means no more than two people are allowed to gather in public space, excluding families who live in the same household.

I think that's actually a good solution. Scientists in recent days warned a total lockdown would cause other problems. They argued people should be allowed to get out and breathe fresh air. I'm glad this is still possible. We were compelled to stay home the whole Saturday because of heavy rain. Today I feel much better after a two hour walk in the sunshine.

Yeah, it's probably the least bad option.

The Bavarian solution was complately insane IMO, because it basically required you to have a family (or other kind of flatmate) if you wanted to have any face-to-face contacts with familiar people in the coming weeks (months?). Persons who are living alone and who either have no job or work from home were put into solitary confinement. That's unworkable in places like Berlin where more than half the population is living alone in their appartments.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to this French journalist in Hong Kong, Asia managed to contain the virus NOT THROUGH LOCKDOWN but THROUGH WEARING MASKS.

Yeah, I heard one before (plus, extremely thorough tracking of early infections based on the experiences they had gained from the previous SARS and Swin flu epidemics).

Problem is, there is a huge face-mask gap between Asia and Europe/America.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

I'm under the impression that this increasingly discussed in the media since maybe yesterday or so. Today I saw a Tagesspiegel interview with a medical doctor (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Willich) who essentially argued that poverty und unemployment are some of the main factors contributing to early deaths in our society and current measures could end up being a zero-sum game if we're not careful and keep the lockdown going too long.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Reading some editorials from German newspapers this evening I must come to the conclusion that the debate on the length and ultimate purpose of the shutdown is certainly picking up momentum. There are questions asked like:

1. What's the exit strategy?
2. Up to which point will the benefits of a shutdown still outweigh the costs?
3. Does the shutdown erode democracy and the rule of law?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I just read an article on the border controls Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern have established to keep people (tourists) from other German states out. Weird stuff. The Balkanization of Germany has begun.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I just read an article on the border controls Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern have established to keep people (tourists) from other German states out. Weird stuff. The Balkanization of Germany has begun.

Freistaat Bayern über alles,
Über alles in der Land!

Actually one thing I learned from this crisis - and this is obviously the first state of emergency for me - is that most emergency powers rest with the states in Germany. The federal government can't do sh**t except to "coordinate" and "recommend", rendering it seemingly more powerless than in "peacetime". Angela Merkel's current role is somewhat reminiscent of that of the President of the European Commission or the President of the European Council, just at the federal level of Germany.

Hence the new inter-state border patrols in Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-V., but also the sixteen different movement, assembly, and contact restrictions in place which follow loose guidelines of a "federal-state agreement".

Of course, one effect could be that this going to change through some constitutional reforms in the post-Corona aftermath.  There have already been propositions made to this effect.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Possible explanation for diverging death rates: Number of ICUs per 100,000 inhabitants (graphic from Austrian Krone newspaper):



Italy and Spain are screwed, but so are possibly UK and Ireland.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany has hit 50,000 cases now. Still remarkable we have just over 300 deaths. Italy is a tragedy beyond any words.

There are rumors in Germany on underestimated covid deaths?

As far as I know, there have been no reports or "rumors" of Coronavirus deaths being underreported in Germany.

Official case fatality rate is 0.8% here right now which is in line with the more optimistic estimates of the virus' mortality rate, provided there is sufficient medical capacity to care for and treat all infected with serious symptoms concurrently. Germany's mortality rate could theoretically still go up in the future if the infection rate isn't slowed down enough and the healthcare system is overwhelmed after all. But so far this simply hasn't been the case, fortunately.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As I already mentioned in the German state politics thread, the finance minister of the state of Hesse, Thomas Schäfer, has committed suicide yesterday. Minister-president Volker Bouffier has confirmed today that Schäfer had been troubled with the development of the Corona crisis lately and therefore Bouffier assumes that Schäfer took his life for that reason.

In other news, the long-term partner of former Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit, Jörn Kubicki, died of Coronavirus complications, aged 54. He had previously suffered from other health issues (COPD).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Where does Germany stand? Despite the fact that some politicians have rejected a discussion on an "exit strategy" for the current restrictions, we're effectively in the middle of a debate on an exit strategy.

Based on various concurrent statements made by a number of leading politicians we can piece together where we are most likely headed. The current semi-curfew which bans public gatherings of more than two people - and in a few states of more than one, except for people you live with anyway -  is supposed to expire on April 5, but it is by now a foregone conclusion that it will be extended until April 19. A couple of states have already issues extensions to that effect and all the remaining state governments are expected to follow suit in the coming days.

Representatives of the federal government have also specified a benchmark for when these semi-curfews could be lifted: the total number of infections in Germany must double in a time period of no less than ten days. Depending on the source, we're roughly at a rate of six or seven days right now, which is already a progress from the two days doubling period we had a few weeks ago. Maybe we'll make it to benchmark until April 19, but it's not totally impossible that there could be a second (and most likely last, otherwise the economy collapses) extension until the first week of May.

As soon as these semi-curfews are lifted, it has already been hinted at by politicians how the adjacent phase is going to look like: old and sick people are supposed to remain at their home for the time being, while restrictions for the young and healthy would start to be lifted. However, there's an ongoing discussion on whether to make the wearing of face-masks mandatory in public from that point forward. The Bavarian government seems to be a strong supporter of such a measure, as are a few others. And even if it is not made legally binding, the practice will nevertheless be strongly encouraged in the future.

It is for that reason, that the federal government is currently in the process of coordinating the launch of a mass-scale domestic production of face-masks with the goal of approaching near-South Korean/Japanese capacities. Since this can hardly done over night, non-governmental initiatives are also encouraged to produce masks in larger quantities, in addition to instructions on how to produce masks in your own home being issued to the general population.

That's in a nutshell the scenario we're looking at.

A good news is that according to federal health minister Jens Spahn, about 45% of all ICUs in the country are currently not in use, so there's still capacity to spare (although it is expected that that the remaining ones will of course be filled up in the weeks to come when the number of seriously sick people have continued to grow).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Doubling rate of the virus is now somewhere between eight and ten days in Germany. Keeps getting better and I how hope this means that the harshest of the restrictions will be lifted on April 20 (to expect that all restrictions will be lifted then is unrealistic though). The state of Berlin already has decided to lift some very minor restrictions today. While you still can't meet more than one other person in public, it is now allowed to sit on park benches and on lawns again - provided that you keep a legally prescribed minimum distance to other people - and you don't need to carry an ID with you any longer. YAY, freedom!

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.dw.com/en/german-state-finance-minister-thomas-sch%C3%A4fer-found-dead/a-52948976

The body of a man identified as Thomas Schäfer, the finance minister of the German state of Hesse, was found on a high-speed train line in the town of Hochheim between Frankfurt and Mainz, police confirmed Saturday.

The presence of a body on the tracks was first reported by witnesses to paramedics, who were unable to initially identify the remains due to the extent of the injuries.

Investigators said an investigation on the scene confirmed the identity of the man as Schäfer and that the death was likely a suicide. Police did not immediately release further details of the case.

The politician apparently left a note before taking his own life, German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported, citing sources close to the investigation. The note, according to the report, referenced Schäfer's reasons for taking the step.

According to media in the state of Hesse, the 54-year-old regularly appeared in public in recent days, for example, to inform the public about financial assistance during the coronavirus crisis.

Schäfer had "considerable worries" over COVID-19

German suicidewatch:

Yesterday, a 41-year-old man from Dortmund (NRW) had killed his wife and his three children and then himself.

Today, a 36-year-old women from the county of Rosenheim (Bavaria) has killed her two children and then herself. Her husband survived.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Big news in Berlin today is that the Trump administration orchestrated the theft of 200,000 face-masks destined for the Berlin Police department from Thailand. Swift condemnation by the mayor of Berlin (see tweet below). The state interior minister called it an act of piracy.

https://twitter.com/RegBerlin/status/1246076088578502659

[Middle-aged Europe]

Big difference is that that stuff was transiting through Germany, and in a somewhat unusual case of me defending your country, at least the German customs could make some sort of excuse about it being an honest mistake over the confusion over the export ban stuff that was going on at the time. And the stuff was actually released in the end - surprised credit to the EU on that one.

This looks like a much more straightforward case of abuse of power and theft. If you want control of medical supplies made by your companies then don't build them abroad. Especially when the actual manufacturer was almost certainly something like 3M Thailand Inc, and a company actually registered in Thailand.

Yes, Thailand, unlike Germany imo, does probably have a good case to be angry with the US (though one would hope that even Trump would not have done this without consulting them first). I think what I am tying to say, is my point is a rather general one (and this is an even more unusual case of me defending the US) about German double standards in this crisis when it comes to outrage about the US treatment of smaller countries, or "lack of solidarity", or protectionism and what not, and the inability to see that we are actually not much better when it comes to our neighbors, even if we put a nicer face and rethoric on it. Was quite startling to see how people here got furious about the US travel ban against Europe, but it was fine when we closed our Borders literally 3 Days later. Even the language of the media was unanimously so pointedly different (EinreiseVERBOT vs Einreisestopp). I remember reading an editorial like the day before we did it, chiding Denmark and Poland for trying to offer simple solutions or so because they closed their Borders. And tomorrow I expect to read again in the FAZ complaining about Trumps nationalism protectionism and whatnot, while we and the French were the first to start banning exports, while they applaud our government telling the Spain and Italy to get lost.      

Personally I agree with pretty much everything parochial boy said on the issue.

I think there's still a big difference between
a) Germany officially halting the export of masks to Switzerland and eventually backing away from that again in the end and
b) the U.S. covertly redirecting masks for themselves without any apparent likelihood hat they're going to change their minds on this and eventually return the masks (for that to happen they would need to admit first that it actually happened in the first place, something the White House apparently doesn't intend to).

That's just not a different rhetoric, but an entirely different modus operandi. This doesn't mean that the aforementioned actions of the German government were justified. But to use a virus analogy here - the get the common cold and to get the coronavirus both sucks, just on entirely different levels of severity.