Democrat Let's Cat out of Bag on VRA

[BigSkyBob]

White Democrat in Missouri lays to rest the myth that creating 40% Black districts would still allow Blacks to select "the candidate of their choice:"

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/12/russ-carnahans.php

[BigSkyBob]

White Democrat in Missouri lays to rest the myth that creating 40% Black districts would still allow Blacks to select "the candidate of their choice:"

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/12/russ-carnahans.php

Um, wow, that's quite a misreading of this piece.

It is clear that he wrote that the new district will not nominate the Democrat preferred by 85% of Blacks ["the candidate of their choice"] if Russ Carnahan runs.

I have clear recollections of Democrats here writing that even lower Black percentage districts are near certain to nominate and elect Blacks. Pure Bravo Sierra.

[BigSkyBob]

For the VRA to apply there must be racially polarized voting. A statistically significant difference must exist between a minority population and the white majority. Without that difference the choice of the voters is presumably race neutral. If there is a difference then one should be able to identify in an election the candidate of choice of the minority voters.

If some minority were to vote pretty consistently 50.5% for the Democrat, and, Whites were pretty consistently voting 50.5% for the Republican, that might not be considered "statistically significant," but, its the difference between consistently winning, and, consistenly losing.