YouGov/CBS - IA: Cruz 40%, Trump 31%, Rubio 12%

[Mr. Morden]

Full #s:

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton needs to win NH too to prove she has females behind her.

Female humans?  Or some other species?  Because I'm not sure what species of female is found so exclusively in New Hampshire.

[Mr. Morden]

If Clinton shows a convincing victory in Iowa, I cant help but to see her too, winning NH. Clinton needs to win NH too to prove she has females behind her.

Don't worry: ask IndyRep all about it. Hillary will receive 348% of the female vote and then proceed to lose PA in the general election!

I didn't realize votes could be female.  I guess that explains the pregnant chad in Florida 2000.

[Mr. Morden]

So if the Iowa result is anything close to this then what exactly is Rubio's path to the nomination?

Second place in New Hampshire (with Bush/Christie/Kasich all falling below expectations)-->other "establishment" candidates drop out-->big money donors line up behind Rubio, going big with negative ads against Cruz/Trump in key states, while GOP governors and other local party leaders put their local party machines to work for him-->at least does well enough in South Carolina to not embarrass himself-->win Nevada, generating an "Is the establishment making a comeback?" media meme going into Super Tuesday-->use that momentum to at least do OK on Super Tuesday-->win key primaries in the rest of March, like MI, FL, IL, OH, AZ etc., so that he's actually ahead in the delegate count after March 15-->profit

[Mr. Morden]

One interesting tidbit here: Trump overperforms among "very conservative" voters in both NH and SC, but not in Iowa.  In Iowa, Cruz has an overwhelming advantage, getting 66% of "very conservative" voters.

"Very conservatives" in Iowa:
Cruz 66%
Trump 16%

"Very conservatives" in New Hampshire:
Trump 36%
Cruz 17%

"Very conservatives" in South Carolina:
Trump 44%
Cruz 32%

How much of this difference is because Iowa "very conservative" voters are different from their counterparts in other states, and how much is because of the Cruz campaign targeting Iowa?