Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Likely Voter]

Polling the NV Dem caucus is probably the most challenging polling to be done. Getting caucus goers is hard enough but then you have the issue of high percent of hard to reach Hispanics. Plus GOTV organizations probably have more effect than any other race.    So I'm skeptical this brand new outfit from outside the state has nailed it.

[Likely Voter]

There are two possibilities
1. this is a legit new polling company
2. some guy named "Fred" (no last name given) created a website and just started pulling numbers out of his ass and calling them polls.

I lean to option 2 since there is no evidence so far for option 1.

[Likely Voter]

Read this:
http://overtimepolitics.com/overnight-emails-and-a-few-questions-answered/

Firstly one would expect a polling company to reveal facts about itself like the name of people involved and it's location. This guy comes out and admits it is a one man operation and it is actually a "side project".  He also promises to stop attacking candidates on Twitter and ask more than one question in polls, so I guess those weren't already kind of givens for a polling company. And yet, even still he finds time to attack Clinton and the DNC for being 'unfair' to Sanders.

I'm sorry, this is not a real pollster and I don't see why these 'numbers' should even be posted here anymore. There has to be some barest sense of legitimacy, this is just some Bernie fan trying to pull an old school Rasmussen, but at least Rasmussen actually did some polling (biased and flawed but there were polls being done).  There is no evidence this is anything more than just some guy in his spare time making up numbers.

[Likely Voter]

even r/sandersforpresident people aren't buying this stuff

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/3ydbh7/attention_the_arkansas_poll_is_not_legitimate_the/

[Likely Voter]

The difference between this and other questionable pollsters, is that there is a debate over whether this is actually a pollster at all.

It doesn't matter what numbers they release, if they seem reasonable or not. There is no evidence that this is a real polling company. At best it is some part-time amateur using non-scientific means. It is also entirely possible it is just some guy making it up.

Until there is evidence that this company is legit, I see no reason to post any of their data and certainly not to enter their data into the system. But if it must be posted, then a megathread is fine too.

[Likely Voter]

Some good reading from the National Council on Public Polls before even considering paying attention to these anonymous blog posts purported to be 'polls'...

Principles of Disclosure

20 Questions A Journalist Should Ask About Poll Results

[Likely Voter]

It seems that not a single reputable media outlet or polling site has covered these blog posts from 'Fred'.   And now evev /politics at Reddit won't allow them to be posted (categorizing them as an "unacceptable source").
https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/41v5yq/clinton_holds_3_point_lead_over_sanders_in/

I do not understand why anyone would pay attention to them until they were vetted. I do not understand why these numbers are being put into the Atlas poll db.

[Likely Voter]

Dubious data is absolutely worse than no data at all. I understand the desire to fill in the blanks on a map, but that doesn't mean we should throw out all objectivity and accept any numbers that appear on some random anonymous blog. And polling in states after the first four, especially for post-Super Tuesday states is pointless anyway. 

This thread discussing the postings from this blogger are fine, but I see no reason why they should be considered 'polls' or 'data' until there is some kind of vetting.

[Likely Voter]

Getting an F rating along with biased and crappy pollsters is still kind of a win for Overtime as those other outfits are at least nominally pollsters.  I still don't believe "Fred" ever conducted a single poll.